Jan 08

Brief Comparisons Between Mets And Nationals

The Washington Nationals won 95 games last year and had a plus-151 run differential. While it is hard to project how many victories they’ll have this summer, they realistically should be good for at least 90 victories based on the following:

Bryce Harper had a miserable dropoff is batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Assuming he stays healthy his numbers should improve, at least enough to off-set any drop from Daniel Murphy.

The acquisition of outfielder Adam Eaton from the White Sox is expected to improve the offense, which also should be aided by a full season from Trea Turner. Together that should make up for the declines of Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth.

However – and there’s always a however – the Nationals have issues.

Just as the Mets are optimistic in the comebacks of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz, so are the Nationals expecting returns from Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross.

Washington couldn’t keep closer Mark Melancon, which puts them on a par with the Mets, who are expecting to be without closer Jeurys Familia for at least the first month. Both teams need to patch their bullpens.

In comparing the Nationals and Mets, Washington added to a 95-win team while New York basically kept the status quo and is banking heavily on their injured pitchers bouncing back.

 

 

 

 

Dec 14

Harvey Optimistic, But Fingers Crossed

When it comes to Matt Harvey proclamations, I’ll believe it when I see it. How can it be any other way for the Mets’ “it’s always something” former All-Star? Harvey, who underwent season-ending surgery for the second time in three years last season, said he’s optimistic about his return from surgery to treat thoracic outlet syndrome.

HARVEY: So far so good. (AP)

HARVEY: So far so good. (AP)

It’s a complicated procedure because it entailed removing a rib on his right side to relieve pressure on nerves connecting between the neck and shoulder. The ailment caused a lack of feeling in his pitching hand and subsequently cut off circulation that made his hand feeling cold.

Talking to reporters at a Mets’ charity function in Queens, Harvey expressed optimism.

“I’d like to think so,” Harvey said about making a strong rebound season. “Obviously, I don’t have a crystal ball. The way things are feeling now, the way the body feels, I’m feeling great.”

Harvey said he’s feeling warmth in his hand and the tingling sensation is gone.

Harvey was struggling at 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA in 17 starts before his season abruptly ended. In one respect the diagnosis was a positive, because after each lackluster start there was the second-guessing the 216 innings he threw in 2015 after coming off Tommy John surgery had drained him.

There are no problems so far, said Harvey.

“The ball is coming out really good right now, especially for December,” he said. “I’m feeling great. My workouts are going well. I’m just looking forward to getting down to spring training and having a good time. … Obviously being healthy through spring training and getting to the season and continuing to be healthy through the season is a big plus for me and something I’m looking forward to doing.

“As far as the offseason goes, I’m right where I want to be.”

We’ve heard this before about Harvey and we all know him being where he wants to be in December isn’t the issue.

The Mets didn’t have a definitive innings plan for Harvey in 2015, and so far there’s been no mention of a plan for Harvey. Or for Jacob deGrom, who is also coming off surgery. Or for Steven Matz, who is also coming back from surgery.

 

Nov 23

Alderson’s Dilemma: Cespedes Now Or Pitching Later?

The New York Post reported what I speculated for weeks, and that’s Yoenis Cespedes wanting a five-year contract. The dollar figure is north of $100 million, likely in the neighborhood of $120 million.

SYNDERGAARD: Paying him or Cespedes. (FOX)

SYNDERGAARD: Paying him or Cespedes. (FOX)

That’s a lot of money, and with his reputation of offensive inconsistency – too many strikeouts against his home runs and RBI – and on-again-off-again hustling, that’s too much.

Also, he showed signs of physically breaking down last year by playing in only 132 games. You might say 2016 was a fluke, but think about his durability four or five years from now.

That brings us to the five years, figuring the Mets could be paying Cespedes close to $30 million for the last two years when he’s 35 and 36 and possibly not playing in more than 100 games in those seasons.

Considering they’ll also be on the hook for the remainder of David Wright’s contract, not to mention any long-term deals they might have for their young pitching. What do you want in five years: a fading Cespedes or Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz locked up? You can throw in Matt Harvey if you want, but I’m still banking on him bolting when he’s a free agent in two years.

That’s the dilemma GM Sandy Alderson is facing: Does he go in deep for Cespedes now or save it for those young, powerful arms?

Frankly, since there’s usually a bat or two in the free-agent market every winter, it’s really a no-brainer.

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Oct 24

Should Injuries Shelve Long-Term Talks With Mets Pitchers?

For the past two years, signing the Mets’ young pitchers to long-term contracts seemed a paramount issue. Whom should they sign first, and for how much? Could they afford to sign two? In their wildest dreams, could they keep them all?

HARVEY: What's his market value now? (Getty)

HARVEY: What’s his market value now? (Getty)

With four pitchers coming off surgery, such talk now is but a whisper. We’re not hearing too much these days about Matt Harvey – who had shoulder surgery to treat thoracic outlet syndrome – leaving after the 2018 season for the Yankees or anybody else for that matter.

Steven Matz had surgery to repair bone spurs in his left elbow and Jacob deGrom, who had Tommy John surgery, is recovering from a second surgery to treat a nerve issue in his elbow. Then there is Zack Wheeler, who had Tommy John surgery and was supposed to ready by July but we didn’t see him all summer and nobody can say for sure when we will.

We won’t know for sure how they are until the spring, but the recovery forecast is looking good for the Mets’ surgically-repaired pitchers as doctors are telling the team they should be ready for the season. Even so, the Mets are likely to handle them all with kid gloves which is why they are interested in bringing back Bartolo Colon and draw relief with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.

The Mets have seven young arms – plus Colon – but we’re no longer hearing talk about contract extensions. Whom should they sign first? Can they afford to sign two or three at a time? Who should they trade to plug holes elsewhere?

However, with Harvey, Matz, deGrom and Wheeler, what’s their trade value? Will teams risk dealing high-level prospects for damaged goods? Certainly, the Mets can’t command as much should they explore trading.

Conventional wisdom has the Mets backing off long-term contract talks as to avoid signing somebody who might not win, or even pitch for them. While their potential might be high, their proven production is not.

Then again, it wouldn’t hurt for the Mets to explore extensions now when their market value might not be as high as it could be in two or three years. It’s a gamble worth considering.

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Sep 28

Where Would Mets Be Without Lugo?

With four precious games remaining in their season, the Mets hold a slim lead over the Giants and Cardinals in the wild-card race.

Here’s a question: Where would the Mets be without Seth Lugo?

Here’s another: Assuming Noah Syndergaard starts Sunday in Philadelphia, who would likely start the wild-card game?

Yup, it would be Lugo.

Lugo took a no-decision in his last two starts, but won his previous four. For the record, the Mets won all six of those games. Care to guess where the Mets might be without that string?

Make no mistake, the Mets are still kicking because of Lugo and Robert Gsellman, who have combined for seven overall victories.

It’s not as if they started the season in the rotation and had time to grow into their jobs, but they stepped into the breach immediately and won at a time the Mets were fighting to save their season. They didn’t make Mets’ fans forget Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Syndergaard, and let’s not ignore Zack Wheeler.

What they did was reduce the sting from their losses and provided a glimpse of optimism for the future. With all but Syndergaard – for now – recovering from surgery that’s comforting.

“The thing that’s been most impressive with these two young guys [is] make no mistake, they know whose shoes they’re filling,” manager Terry Collins said. “But when they come up here, they have not been intimidated by anything. All they’ve done is gone out and pitch their game, and their stuff is good, and we’re seeing it play here. You’ve got to give a little credit to the character of those guys, because they could have been really intimated.”

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