The Miami Marlins are in for the weekend, and with them comes Jose Reyes. Now that the season is dwindling down to a precious few games, I ask: Would the Mets season been significantly different had they re-signed Reyes?
I don’t see how that is possible after last night.
With the way the Mets are heading, by the time they are competitive again Reyes will be on the downside of his career. The Mets had to have made that self-examination in their thought process. How could they not have?
On paper, the Marlins opened the season a better team than the Mets, with or without adding Reyes.
The teams have six games remaining to determine last place, which no looks like a foregone conclusion.
Reyes will finish with a superior career than Ruben Tejada, but the latter is a better fit for the Mets, and it is based on economics. The Mets couldn’t afford to give Reyes the deal the Marlins did and then expect to re-sign David Wright. Re-signing R.A. Dickey wasn’t even an issue then.
As it is, the Mets will be hard pressed to bring them back despite receiving a favorable court ruling in the Madoff scandal. The Mets won’t have to pay nearly the penalty they could have and get three years before they have to start paying anything. Outside of a clean verdict – which never would have happened – the Wilpons couldn’t have asked for a better deal.
ESPN reported this morning the Mets are considering trading Ike Davis. It seems plausible explanation for why Lucas Duda has been getting more playing time at first base. Adam Rubin wrote it, so I trust the reporting.
But, isn’t Davis one of the bright young talents the Mets are building around? Isn’t he one of the good products from what has been regarded as a weak farm system?
Yes, but there’s more to the story than just his age and power potential, which could reach 30 homers this season despite a slow start. He is on pace for 30 homers, but also on track to hit .223 with 142 strikeouts and only 60 walks.
Davis said he’d like to remain a Met, but understands the business side of the sport.
“If they trade me, they trade me – I can’t do anything about it,” Davis told reporters. “I have to do my job where I am at.”
Trading Davis, despite his power potential, makes sense on several fronts:
1) The Mets have few chips they could spend and definitely are reluctant to tamper with their young pitching. Davis, with his potential and low salary, is a player who could bring in several pieces in return. In considering the available Mets that could be dealt, David Wright might bring back more, but his salary would be a deterrent. Davis is a player who could be tied up in a long term deal.
As being one of their few tradable chips is important considering GM Sandy Alderson has already spoke of keeping basically the same payroll next season, which would preclude spending lavishly in the free agent market.
2) While Davis is their frontline first baseman, the Mets have depth in the position with Duda. There’s absolutely no outfield depth and they would struggle to replace Wright or Ruben Tejada.
3) Reportedly, Davis hasn’t taken to being coached well and has a weakness for the night life. If this is true, the Mets wouldn’t want him around to influence the other young talent. Reports like this could work either way in the Mets’ attempts to deal Davis. First, Davis could be viewed as a problem, although there’s been no complaints about him in the clubhouse. Secondly, the perception could be that the Mets have been so poor in recent years that a player not being coachable could be interpreted as not that big a deal.
Davis debuted with a flair, but sustained a severe ankle injury last year and was struck by a virus this spring. He might be totally frustrated and resentful of how the Mets handled the ankle injury and this could explain any reluctance with the coaching. On the flip side, Terry Collins opted to keep him earlier this year when he was struggling instead of sending him to the minor leagues. That action must be regarded as the Mets having confidence in Davis, and that can’t be underestimated.
I often wonder what became of Davis’ approach at the plate. He arrived with a reputation of being patient, working the count and taking the outside pitch to left field. He would wait for his pitch to crush. However, we’ve been seeing less of that lately and more of him over swinging and trying to pull.
What Davis hasn’t realized, or it hasn’t been told to him – although I doubt that – is if Davis was more patient and went the other way, that he has the power to hit it out to left. Also, adding 40 points to his average would translate into more homers.
I can see Davis becoming a star player, but I can also see him evolving into an all-or-nothing slugger. If the Mets can swing a deal and fill a couple of holes elsewhere, then go for it.
There are a myriad of statistics to explain what has happened to the Mets this season, but there’s one that stands out like neon. The Mets are 4-18 at home since the All-Star break. They have scored three or fewer runs in 17 of those games, including their last ten straight.
Overall, they are an unacceptable 30-38 at home as they begin a three-game series tonight against the Washington.
They haven’t had a futility stretch in scoring like their last ten since 1988. The franchise record is 11 straight, achieved – is that the proper word? – in 1979 and at the end of the 1966 season and start of 1967.
They are facing Gio Gonzalez tonight before what should be a small smattering of people with nothing else better to do. The Mets drew less than a combined 75,000 for the three-game series against Atlanta. The Jets drew over 79,000 yesterday.
Traditionally, contenders aim to win at home and be .500 on the road and the Mets have failed in both accounts.
With the Mets not expected to substantially increase their payroll next season, I wouldn’t expect there to be dramatically different team than the current edition. We’ll have to wait until they clear $50 million in salary for Johan Santana and Jason Bay after next year to see what they put on the field for 2014.
The Mets, 4-11 this season against the Nationals, will start this line-up tonight:
Ruben Tejada, ss
Ronny Cedeno, 2b
David Wright, 3b
Scott Hairston, rf
Ike Davis, 1b
Kelly Shoppach, c
Jason Bay, lf
Andres Torres, cf
Collin McHugh, rhp
If not a breakout season, 2012 was supposed to be a season where catcher Josh Thole would take it to another level, both defensively and as a hitter. That hasn’t been the case, and one hopes Thole will receive the message manager Terry Collins is sending him tonight.
Originally, right-handed hitting Kelly Shoppach – who homered last night – was to start against left Cole Hamels. However, when Hamels was scratched this afternoon because of a stomach ailment and replaced by right-handed call-up Tyler Cloyd, Collins stuck with Shoppach instead of going to Thole.
Maybe Collins is simply rewarding Shoppach, but somewhere in there must be a message the Mets aren’t satisfied with what Thole is giving them. Production from behind the plate is needed, but it isn’t to the dire point where the Mets will move away from Thole, so he should report to spring training as the starter, but the patience in him is getting shorter.
Here’s tonight’s line-up:
Ruben Tejada, ss
Daniel Murphy, 2b
David Wright, 3b
Ike Davis, 1b
Lucas Duda, lf
Scott Hairston, cf
Mike Baxter, rf
Kelly Shoppach, c
Matt Harvey, rhp
INTERESTING NOTE: Scott Hairston has already cleared waivers so there are contenders seeking an outfield bat who are scouting the Mets. Hairston is is center tonight, which makes me wonder if the Mets are showcasing his versatility.
Hairston, by the way, has been productive off the bench and is somebody the Mets should bring back.