Dec 04

Tulowitzki Is Wishful Thinking

Unquestionably, a healthy Troy Tulowitzki makes the Mets a better team. I read something again today about the Mets dealing for him, but if you are a true fan of the team you know that’s not how they do business.

TULO: Just wishful thinking.

TULO: Just wishful thinking.

The last star the Mets traded for was Johan Santana, but they were closer to winning then than they are now. Plus, it is debatable how that trade worked out.

At 30, Tulowitzki is still in him prime and last year’s numbers of .340, 21 homers, 52 RBI, .432 on-base percentage and 1.035 OPS through 91 games before he was injured make a compelling argument for breaking the bank.

However, if you’re a true Mets fan – and I assume most of you are – then you also know “the bank,’’ is the franchise’s North Star. Tulowitzki is owed $129 million over the next seven seasons and to the Mets’ line of thinking, that number supersedes those at the plate.

And, we haven’t gotten to the part yet about the Rockies’ demands. Sorry, but Daniel Murphy and Dillon Gee – both of whom the Mets would love to trade because of their salaries, which combined are less than $13 million – won’t cut it. This isn’t talk-radio fantasy land when you give up nothing for a star.

At least two of those young arms the team is building around have to be included. There is also the possibility that to make this deal Tulowitzki’s contract would be modified. He has a clause that prohibits him being traded more than once, so, if the Rockies deal him the Mets would not be allowed if they believe the contract is a burden. At least, not without a cost.

A red flag is Tulowitzki’s injury history, which has prevented him from playing more than 140 games only once since 2009.

If the Mets were really on the cusp, then go for it. However, there are too many variables that scream this is not the right player at the right time. The Mets finally rid themselves of burdensome contracts and are making themselves competitive again.

This is too much of a gamble.

Nov 12

Dissecting The Cuddyer Signing

Michael Cuddyer said all the right things about coming to the New York Mets. He spoke of how the Mets were a team on the cusp; about playing with longtime friend David Wright; and the excitement of playing in New York.

For good measure, he mentioned how he imagined how a packed Citi Field could be when he referenced the 2013 All-Star Game.

Got you going, didn’t it?

Then he ruined the illusion by saying “it always isn’t about the money.’’

But, I’ve been covering this sport a long time, and you’ve been following the Mets a long time. What we both know, is that when it comes to the Mets, money is right there at the top. Money is always the key factor.

The Cuddyer signing tells us a lot about the Mets and their financial situation. It also raises a lot of questions, which I’ll attempt to answer:

Q: Why wouldn’t Cuddyer accept the Rockies’ $15.3 million qualifying offer and go the free-agent route again?

A: That’s his risk. He wanted two and the Rockies were offering one. There was no guarantee Cuddyer would get a second year from anyone. When he gave the Mets a deadline to give him two years or he’d take the qualifying offer, “it gave us pause,’’ said GM Sandy Alderson.

The Mets had things to consider, such as other free-agent outfield options, which would have cost more. Or, trade options, but they had few chips to play and are unwilling to include their young pitching. Or, going from within, which they didn’t have the confidence in doing. And, there was the matter of losing the draft pick, which they didn’t want to do.

The most palatable option was giving Cuddyer two years.

Q: The breakdown is the first year for $8.5 million and the second year for $12.5 million. What does that mean?

A: In giving up their first-round pick – the 15th overall selection – the Mets also save themselves $2.5 million. Given that, the Mets will have filled their outfield hole for $6 million this year, which is $1.25 less than they blew on Chris Young last year. They don’t get their pick, but that player is at least three years down the road anyway. A lot can change in that time. With the $2.5 million they save by not having the draft pick gives them a little more flexibility.

Q: Won’t the Mets feel a pinch in 2016 for the $12.5 million they’d pay Cuddyer?

A: They could, but not if they make the strides they expect. Their gamble is they’ll improve enough in 2015 and experience an attendance spike. That will pay in part for Cuddyer. Of course, that means they’ll have to win this year, or at least “play meaningful games in September.’’ But, if none of this happens by July 2016 and Cuddyer is productive, he shouldn’t be hard to trade.

Q: Was this done to appease Wright?

A: That probably factored into it, but I wouldn’t say that was their first priority.

Q: What does signing Cuddyer say about their bench and minor league system?

A: For one, is tells me they likely won’t bring back Eric Young. It also speaks to their diminishing confidence in Matt den Dekker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis as a fulltime player. The Mets stunted their development last year and that figures to be the same this year.

Q: The Mets kept saying they wanted power, but Cuddyer has hit only 80 homers over the past five years (16 average) and only ten in an injury shortened 2014. Does this fill that need?

A: No. Cuddyer isn’t strictly a pull hitter, which is just as well because the fences aren’t coming in next year. Presumably, he uses the whole field, which is the best way. Cuddyer has only one 30-homer season despite playing his career in the Coors Field and the Metrodome. He’s only had one 100-RBI season as well.

Q: Were there other options?

A: Sure, but nobody screamed out as a “must have’’ talent. Michael Morse, Ryan Ludwick, Nate Schierholtz, Nick Markakis and Josh Willingham were all available this fall, but would have either been too expensive; would stay with their original teams; or not graded as high as Cuddyer.

Q: Where will Cuddyer play?

A: Probably right field, with Curtis Granderson moving over to left field.

Q: Bottom line this for me: Does Cuddyer put the Mets over the top?

A: By no stretch of the imagination. The Mets have questions concerning shortstop; the offensive returns of Wright and Granderson; whether Lucas Duda can do it again; the development of Zack Wheeler and return from surgery by Matt Harvey. If all that happens and Cuddyer can return to his 2013 form when he won the NL batting title.

 

Nov 04

Cuddyer Not Happening For Mets

An early surprise at the start of the free-agent Hot Stove season is the Colorado Rockies’ decision to give 35-year old outfielder Michael Cuddyer a $15.3 qualifying offer.

CUDDYER: Not happening.

CUDDYER: Not happening.

That’s bad news for the Mets, who were reported to be interested in Cuddyer. There’s no way the Mets will go that high, especially for a player who missed two months because of hamstring issues.

Sure, he won the NL batting title in 2013, but that was two years ago. He only hit 10 homers last season, and only hit as many as 20 twice since 2009. For an average defender, that’s not a lot of right-handed power.

Even more discouraging is his average of playing in only 93 games in each of the past three years. I can’t see the Mets paying over $15.3 million for a part time player with declining production.

By keeping Cuddyer, the Rockies could be shopping Carlos Gonzalez, but he’s no bargain either. Injuries limited him to only 70 games last season.

Gonzalez will make $16 million, $17 million and $20 million in the next three years. In 2010, Gonzalez, 29, hit 34 homers with 117 RBI and a .376 on-base percentage and .974 OPS, by far his best season.

But that was four years ago and he had protection in the order from Troy Tulowitzki.

There’s been speculation for years the Mets would mine the Rockies for Tulowitzki and/or Gonzalez, but they were too pricey. Then it was Cuddyer, but they won’t afford him, either.

Time to look elsewhere.

Sep 12

Mets Announce 2013 Schedule

With the Mets playing out the string, what better time to announce the 2013 schedule, which is crazier than usual.

One good thing is the Mets and Yankees only play four games, scheduled in back-to-back two game series at the end of May.

On the flip side, interleague play is spread out throughout the season. You all know what this blog thinks of interleague play, so there’s no use in going through that now. One interleague comment, however, is the absurdity of scheduling something in September. In fact, the Mets have four series in September out of their division. They also have four series against teams that will only make one trip to Citi Field, which opens up the possibility to long rain delays and  awkward make-up dates later in the season.

Here’s the schedule. Times not announced.

1, 3, 4 vs. Padres

5, 6, 7 vs. Marlins

8, 9, 10 at Phillies

12, 13, 14 at Twins

15, 16, 17, 18 at Rockies

19, 20, 21 vs. Nationals
23, 24, 25 vs. Dodgers
26, 27, 28 vs. Phillies
29, 30 at Marlins
MAY
1 at Marlins
3, 4, 5 at Braves
7, 8 vs. White Sox
9, 10, 11, 12 vs. Pirates
13, 14, 15, 16 at Cardinals
17, 18, 19 at Cubs
20, 21, 22 vs. Reds
24, 25, 26 vs. Braves
27, 28 vs. Yankees
29, 30 at Yankees
31 at MarlinsJUNE
1, 2 at Marlins
4, 5, 6 at Nationals
7, 8, 9 vs. Marlins
11, 12, 13 vs. Cardinals
14, 15, 16 vs. Cubs
17, 18, 19, 20 at Braves
21, 22, 23 at Phillies
25, 26 at White Sox
28, 29, 30 vs. Nationals

JULY
1, 2, 3, 4 vs. Diamondbacks
5, 6, 7 at Brewers
8, 9, 10 at Giants
12, 13, 14 at Pirates

16 All-Star Game at Citi Field

19, 20, 21 vs. Phillies
22, 23, 24, 25 vs. Braves
26, 27, 28 at Nationals
29, 30, 31 at Marlins

AUGUST
1 at Marlins
2, 3, 4 vs. Royals
6, 7, 8 vs. Rockies
9, 10, 11 at Diamondbacks
12, 13, 14 at Dodgers
15, 16, 17, 18 at Padres
20, 21 vs. Braves
23, 24, 25 vs. Tigers
26, 27, 28, 29 vs. Phillies
30, 31 at Nationals

SEPTEMBER
1 at Nationals
2, 3, 4 at Braves
6, 7, 8 at Indians
9, 10, 11, 12 vs. Nationals
13, 14, 15 vs. Marlins
17, 18, 19 vs. Giants
20, 21, 22 at Phillies
23, 24, 25 at Reds
26, 27, 28, 29 vs. Brewers

May 10

Mets Chat Room: Pelfrey goes against Rockies.

Mike Pelfrey goes tonight against Colorado, a team he’s enjoyed a good amount of success against. Pelfrey is 5-2 with a 2.91 ERA lifetime against Colorado, where he is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA.

Pelfrey gives the Mets a legitimate chance to win, but he needs some support, and that means Jason Bay and David Wright. Both, when hot, have the capability of carrying a ream for a week or two, but neither has proven to get hot with power for any extended period.

And, if there’s any park where you can get the power going is Coors Field.

To talk during tonight’s game, click onto the Mets Chat icon to your left.