Apr 01

Mets over/under for 2011 and some picks.

In most circles, the Mets are pegged for fourth place in the NL East with roughly 77 victories. Considering their offseason and the issues around the team that seems about right. I’ll throw out a number and you tell me if you’ll take the over/under.

 

Mets victories: 78

Phillies victories: 98

Mets victories over Phillies: 7

Mets victories over Braves: 8

Mike Pelfrey wins: 16

R.A. Dickey wins: 11

Jon Niese wins: 12

Different Mets pitchers to make a start: 11

Francisco Rodriguez game-ending appearances: 50

Rodriguez saves: 25

Ike Davis homers: 21

Games played by Jason Bay: 110

Bay homers: 19

Times Bay will appear on the DL: 2

Games played by Carlos Beltran assuming no trade: 110

Jose Reyes steals: 55

Reyes games with Mets assuming no trade: 145

David Wright homers: 30

Wright strikeouts: 130

Wright RBI: 107

Angel Pagan average: .280

Pagan stolen bases: 30

Jose Thole average: .275

Date we’ll see Johan Santana: Aug. 9

 

My picks:

NL East winner: Phillies

NL Central winner: Reds

NL West winner: Giants

NL wild card: Braves

NL champ: Phillies

Mets finish in NL East: fourth

NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado

NL Cy Young: Matt Cain, San Francisco

 

AL East winner: Boston

AL Central winner: Minnesota

AL West winner: Texas

AL wild-card: New York

AL Champ: Boston

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez, Boston

AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia, New York

World Series winner: Boston

Mar 20

Waiting out the Mets

ESPN is reporting the Phillies are close to signing Luis Castillo to fill in for the injured Chase Utley. If not the Phillies, it would be somebody else. The same goes for Oliver Perez when the Mets finally release him, presumably on Monday.

There was no chance the Mets had of trading either because teams knew they were dealing from a position of strength with Sandy Alderson. There is no reason for any team to offer a player to the Mets when they know they could wait them out and just sign them when they were cut loose. More importantly, by waiting out the Mets the new team wouldn’t assume those contracts, but only be responsible for the major league minimum of $414,500.

Sandy Alderson admitted Castillo was released in large part because of his perception by Mets’ fans. The same reasoning will also apply when it comes to Perez. Alderson and manager Terry Collins will meet Monday to discuss Perez’s fate. After giving up back-to-back homers Saturday, the inevitable is probably hours away.

 

Jan 13

Mets and Chris Young getting close

The Mets appear to be nearing a deal with injury-scarred pitcher Chris Young for about $1 million plus incentives. Yawn.

Wonder what the incentives will be to the fans to watch him?

At 31, he should be in the prime of his career, but he’s made only 18 starts in the past two seasons, including just four last year because of chronic shoulder problems. He hasn’t started 30 games since 2007, and is 22-20 over the past two seasons.

At his best, he’s no better than a No. 5 starter, and fits in with what the Mets figure to become this year.

Meanwhile, John Maine is drawing interest from the Phillies. If healthy, I can see a bigger upside from Maine than I can Young, but it had become clear Maine had run his course with the Mets.

With spring training just 34 days away, Young is about as good as it is going to be for the Mets as far as improving their pitching.

Dec 23

Have to stop this kind of thinking

I think about whom the Mets might fill out their rotation with next summer, Pat Misch or Dillon Gee, or if they’ll sign Jeff Francis or Chris Young. I wonder if they’ll pull a deal a sign Matt Garza.

I think about all those things and wonder how they could possibly overtake the Phillies or even compete for a wild card. I concede that .500 is about the best they can hope for with that rotation. Maybe a little better if Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay come back healthy.

Then, I realize 2011 isn’t the objective, it isn’t the prize. I realize 2011 is a sacrificial lamb. The goal is to improve, be competitive and fuel your imaginations for a winter of spending next Christmas.

The future is not now.

Dec 15

No need to panic

Sandy Alderson said Philadelphia’s stunning signing of Cliff Lee will have no great bearing or impact on his plans for putting together the Mets for 2011. Nor should it.

Alderson says the Mets can be competitive, but there’s room for interpretation on what that means. Will the Mets make a run at the wild card or just play tight, close games they’ll more often than not eventually lose? With the way the roster is compiled and limited spending to them, it is probably the latter.

The Mets talked bravely about the Phillies being better on paper, which is undoubtedly true, but they still have to play the games. That’s the way to slip into cliche mode. Adding Chris Young or Jeff Francis isn’t going to make a world of difference for the Mets. Fact is, with the Yankees losing out on Lee I can see them swooping down on Young to bring into camp. The $4 million he wants is chump change to the Yankees.

Alderson can’t write off 2011 entirely because he still has tickets to sell and he needs to change the culture by improving the remaining product on the field. A panic signing now, with all that payroll coming off the books later, does the team no good.

Just get used to it. This will be a rough year, but it is the needed medicine to cure the ills of the previous regime.