Nov 23

Alderson’s Dilemma: Cespedes Now Or Pitching Later?

The New York Post reported what I speculated for weeks, and that’s Yoenis Cespedes wanting a five-year contract. The dollar figure is north of $100 million, likely in the neighborhood of $120 million.

SYNDERGAARD: Paying him or Cespedes. (FOX)

SYNDERGAARD: Paying him or Cespedes. (FOX)

That’s a lot of money, and with his reputation of offensive inconsistency – too many strikeouts against his home runs and RBI – and on-again-off-again hustling, that’s too much.

Also, he showed signs of physically breaking down last year by playing in only 132 games. You might say 2016 was a fluke, but think about his durability four or five years from now.

That brings us to the five years, figuring the Mets could be paying Cespedes close to $30 million for the last two years when he’s 35 and 36 and possibly not playing in more than 100 games in those seasons.

Considering they’ll also be on the hook for the remainder of David Wright’s contract, not to mention any long-term deals they might have for their young pitching. What do you want in five years: a fading Cespedes or Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz locked up? You can throw in Matt Harvey if you want, but I’m still banking on him bolting when he’s a free agent in two years.

That’s the dilemma GM Sandy Alderson is facing: Does he go in deep for Cespedes now or save it for those young, powerful arms?

Frankly, since there’s usually a bat or two in the free-agent market every winter, it’s really a no-brainer.

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Oct 15

Bullpen Bridge Key For Mets

The Mets will have no shortage of offseason issues, and we’ll discuss them all. Let’s put Yoenis Cespedes on the back burner for now in terms of importance and go directly to the bullpen. Conor Gillespie’s fly ball hadn’t even cleared the wall and there was the question as to whether Jeurys Familia was a problem. Could this guy pitch in October?

MLB: New York Mets at Milwaukee BrewersI’m not worried about Familia. I think he’ll be fine. He saved 51 games this year with that nasty pitch of his that moves into lefty hitters and away from right-handers. His slider/cutter/sinker is one of the game’s hardest pitches to hit. About his psyche? Well, he was stand-up after the wild-card game, admitted he threw a bad pitch location-wise and said it was time to learn and move on.

As many of you know, I covered the Yankees for eight years before moving to the Mets and had many conversations with Mariano Rivera. He said giving up the game-winning homer to Cleveland’s Sandy Alomar was one of the best things that happened to him ibecause it taught him how to forget and move on; to develop a thick skin.

I’m positive the same will happen with Familia.

My bullpen concern is the bridge leading up to Familia. The Mets have four pitchers coming off surgery and we don’t know yet about Noah Syndergaard‘s bone spur, although indications are he’ll be fine. Ideally, the Mets want seven innings from their starters, but realistically can’t expect that on a nightly basis. Early on, at least, they’ll be happy to get six.

That leaves at least three innings to cover.

Bringing back Addison Reed is essential, and I might argue, on a par with Cespedes. They’ll need to make sure they are covered in the sixth and seventh innings. They liked Fernando Salas, and he pitched well. Hansel Robles was good until he was not. He’s still a question, but one with great stuff.

The Mets have three situational lefties to choose between Josh Smoker, Jerry Blevins and Josh Edgin.

We don’t know what we’ll get from the injured starters, which makes building the pen a paramount issue.

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Oct 03

Leaving Loney Off Wild-Card Roster Would Be Mistake

There’s no doubt Mets GM Sandy Alderson is a smart guy, but there are times he thinks too damn much. Reportedly he’s doing that now by considering leaving James Loney off the wild-card playoff roster in favor of Lucas Duda.

Never mind the fairness element, that without Loney replacing Duda for 99 games, the Mets are already scattering for their off-season homes.

LONEY: Would be mistake leaving him off roster. (SNY)

LONEY: Would be mistake leaving him off. (SNY)

Clearly, Alderson, who is Sabremetrics junkie infatuated with the home run, is hoping Duda might run into a pitch against the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner Wednesday night. It could happen, but I’m betting after not playing most of the season with a back injury he will be handcuffed by Bumgarner’s nasty slider.

As lefty hitters, neither Loney (2-for-13, .154 BA/.214 OB) nor Duda (0-for-1) have a distinguished history against Bumgarner. For that matter, neither does Eric Campbell (1-for-5).

When you look at the splits, look at their career numbers against all left-handed pitchers. In 572 career at-bats against lefties, Duda is hitting .224 with 17 homers, a .659 OPS and a 200-50 strikeouts-to-walks ratio. Conversely, in 1,264 at-bats, Loney is hitting .251 with 20 homers, a .646 OPS and a 222-83 strikeouts-to-walks ratio.

Actually, if it came down to career numbers against Bumgarner, what about Kelly Johnson (7-for-20 lifetime)?

I’m not blaming manager Terry Collins should the Mets go with Duda because he’s not pulling the strings. This is Alderson’s baby. Both pay lip service to a give-and-take working relationship, but Alderson runs the show.

The Bumgarner-Noah Syndergaard match-up suggests the possibility of a low-scoring game. Alderson is gambling Duda will connect for a bomb, but the odds suggest Loney is more apt to continue an inning.

And, with runs figuring to be at a premium, Loney is the superior defensive player. He has a better glove, more range, and a better arm. Should I remind you of his throw to the plate in Game 5 of last year’s World Series? Didn’t think so.

One of the main storylines in this game will be Syndergaard’s ability to hold potential base stealers, who ran on him at will this year.

As a right-handed first baseman, it is harder for Duda to hold runners as his tag will be at the runner’s calf instead of his arm. Meanwhile, with a good move, Loney’s tag will be on the runner’s hand. If nothing else it could shorten a lead by a step.

Look, Duda might hit three homers. He could also make two errors and strike out three times. Who knows? But, for one game, with this pitching match-up, the right way to go is Loney over Duda.

If they want to take Duda over Campbell for a pinch-hit swing late in the game, fine. But, seriously, if Campbell pinch-hits, the Mets would likely be behind, and who would he bat for?

Alderson is smart, but he’s thinking too much on this one and it could bite him in the butt.

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Sep 27

Matz Done For Year; What Took So Long?

It wasn’t too long ago the Mets boasted having the best young staff in the sport, one that would return them to the World Series. With the postseason a week away – with no assurances of them getting there – four of the five are done for the season because of surgery.

MATZ:  To have surgery. (AP)

   MATZ: To have surgery. (AP)

ESPN’s Adam Rubin reported today – later confirmed by several media outlets – Steven Matz will be shut down for the remainder of the season to undergo surgery almost immediately on a bone spur in his left elbow. Matz is also down with an impingement in his shoulder, but surgery is not planned for that injury.

What took Matz so long to elect to have surgery? The 25-year-old Matz has had the spur for much of the season, with GM Sandy Alderson and manager Terry Collins insisting it was a “pain tolerance issue” and he couldn’t risk further injury.

However, it hasn’t been addressed whether the shoulder impingement irritating the rotator cuff was caused by an altering of Matz’s mechanics caused by the pain in his elbow. It’s worth exploring, especially considering the Mets’ history of handling injuries.

Matz hasn’t pitched since mid-August. Surgery should have been performed then, and possibly on his shoulder, also, to give him the maximum time for recovery and rehab. The current timetable is a three-month recovery period, which means he won’t pick up a ball until January.

Will he really have enough time? Had this been done a month or two ago, there wouldn’t be any doubt.

I would have thought with Matt Harvey out for the year (to remove a rib and alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome) and Zack Wheeler (ulnar nerve in elbow) that to hedge their bets they would have encouraged Matz to have the surgery weeks ago – at least when the shoulder issue surfaced. Instead, the last six weeks have been squandered.

Making this even more disturbing is Jacob deGrom had surgery last week to repair the ulnar nerve in his elbow. Also, Noah Syndergaard has been bothered by an elbow bone spur issue for several months. The Mets are saying surgery isn’t planned for him, but wouldn’t they want to get it addressed sooner than later?

With the others easing their way back next spring, the last thing the Mets would want is surgery for Syndergaard.

Fortunately for the Mets, they remain in the race because of Bartolo Colon, who has been pitching with a foot injury (he left Monday’s game after 2.1 innings), and the Band-Aid of Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.

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Sep 22

Matz To Miss Friday’s Start; Should Have Surgery Sooner Than Later

I have more a feeling of relief than anything else with today’s news Steven Matz will be scratched from Friday’s start with persistence soreness in his left shoulder.

Good, not because Matz is still hurting. But good in the sense he won’t be pushed any longer, and in the best-case scenario, he can now be shut down and have the surgery on his elbow to treat a bone spur, and if possible, treatment on his shoulder which currently has him on the disabled list with an impingement.

MATZ:  Out for Friday. (AP)

MATZ: Out for Friday. (AP)

“It’s a shoulder, so it will be a few days to quiet down,’’ manager Terry Collins said. “It’s a process. Long toss, bullpen, maybe BP. That’s lot things to do in a short time.’’

So, even if Matz did come back, he wouldn’t be stretched out and would be used out of the bullpen, which presents a different set of questions.

Matz threw a bullpen last weekend, and had a 20-pitch session Wednesday. The Mets hoped he could start Friday against the Phillies, limiting him to 50 pitches and have Gabriel Ynoa follow him. Ynoa will now get the start.

Matz described the feeling in his shoulder as pain that differed normal soreness.

“Right now, I’m experiencing symptoms and go from there,’’ Matz said. “Sitting on the sidelines and not doing anything is not where I want to be.’’

Bringing back Matz was an ambitious idea, but smacked of desperation and similar to their handling of Jacob deGrom it might have been pushing the envelope too hard, too soon.

However, deGrom’s issue was to his elbow, but shoulders are believed to be more complex. Matz has both.

Of the Mets’ vaunted young rotation, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, deGrom and now Matz will have surgery. And, it is possible Noah Syndergaard could have a procedure on a bone spur.

Since Matz was to have surgery this winter, it should be done as soon as possible to give him more rehab time.

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