Apr 01

Mets over/under for 2011 and some picks.

In most circles, the Mets are pegged for fourth place in the NL East with roughly 77 victories. Considering their offseason and the issues around the team that seems about right. I’ll throw out a number and you tell me if you’ll take the over/under.

 

Mets victories: 78

Phillies victories: 98

Mets victories over Phillies: 7

Mets victories over Braves: 8

Mike Pelfrey wins: 16

R.A. Dickey wins: 11

Jon Niese wins: 12

Different Mets pitchers to make a start: 11

Francisco Rodriguez game-ending appearances: 50

Rodriguez saves: 25

Ike Davis homers: 21

Games played by Jason Bay: 110

Bay homers: 19

Times Bay will appear on the DL: 2

Games played by Carlos Beltran assuming no trade: 110

Jose Reyes steals: 55

Reyes games with Mets assuming no trade: 145

David Wright homers: 30

Wright strikeouts: 130

Wright RBI: 107

Angel Pagan average: .280

Pagan stolen bases: 30

Jose Thole average: .275

Date we’ll see Johan Santana: Aug. 9

 

My picks:

NL East winner: Phillies

NL Central winner: Reds

NL West winner: Giants

NL wild card: Braves

NL champ: Phillies

Mets finish in NL East: fourth

NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado

NL Cy Young: Matt Cain, San Francisco

 

AL East winner: Boston

AL Central winner: Minnesota

AL West winner: Texas

AL wild-card: New York

AL Champ: Boston

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez, Boston

AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia, New York

World Series winner: Boston

Nov 01

What exactly is Sandy Alderson’s definition of competitive?

Sandy Alderson expects the Mets to be competitive next season, but did not define that to mean they’ll be in the playoff hunt. He also said he doesn’t foresee the Mets being big players in the free-agent market.

There’s nothing down below that is major league ready to drastically improve the team, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll deal any of their three biggest major league commodities – David Wright, Jose Reyes or Mike Pelfrey.

Translated: Alderson believes the Mets can be competitive with pretty much the same team they had this season if their injured players can return productive and sound, which is what Omar Minaya said last winter. The Mets won 79 games this year, two below .500, which is merely average. They would figure to improve with full and healthy seasons from Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran and Reyes, but there are no guarantees.

But, how much better? Ten games? That would be 89, but the NL wild card team, Atlanta, won 91 games. So, winning ten more falls short, and that’s even before considering their other issues.

The first, and most important, is the expected absence of Johan Santana. Some projections have him missing most, if not all of the season. Assuming no Santana, the Mets will need two other starters to fill out their rotation.

If the Mets go the same route as they did last winter and not add an arm in the free agent market, we’ll be looking at a front end of the the rotation with Pelfrey, Jon Niese and RA Dickey, with Dillon Gee and Pat Misch among those competing in the back end.

Other issues will be hoping for the continued development of Ike Davis, Josh Thole and Angel Pagan.

Alderson has already told us he won’t have a lot of payroll flexibility this winter, but even if he were to shed the Mets of Oliver Perez or Luis Castillo, that doesn’t mean he’ll find an extra $18 million to play with for 2011.

So far, the first impression has been a good one of Alderson, and part of that has been him being forthcoming about the obstacles.

We’re all assuming the Mets will make major moves for the 2012 season. That doesn’t mean they can’t take a step up next season. How big remains to be seen.

Jun 22

Mets Chat Room: Tigers in for key series.

Game #70 vs. Tigers

The Mets come off their 7-2 road trip – had the offense not take the last two games of the Yankees series off it could have been 8-1 or better – yet another example of their streakiness.

After winning seven straight on the road the Mets scored all of three runs on 10 hits in the last two games of the Yankees series, and in the process dropped to 2 1/2 games behind the Braves.

The Mets have been all or nothing this year, either sizzling or freezing. They should not be penalized because they beat up on Baltimore on Cleveland, because playoff caliber teams should maul the weaker teams.

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May 17

May 17.10: Chat Room, Game #39 at Braves: Pelfrey tries to stop slide.

COO Jeff Wilpon and GM Omar Minaya met with manager Jerry Manuel prior to tonight’s game at Atlanta.

“I didn’t come here to fire anybody,” Wilpon said. “If I was going to make a change that quick I would have done something last year.”

According to all parties, the meeting was about how to improve what’s there with the present pieces. However, the whispers of Manuel’s job security will continue until the Mets give them reason to stop, and their play on the road isn’t it, where they are 1-8 in May and 4-12 overall, the latter a NL worst.

The Mets are coming off being swept out of Florida in four games by the Marlins. They’ve also lost five straight and 11 out of 15 games to go from first to worst in the NL East.

“We’ve got to get some things straightened out,” said Manuel, the master of the obvious. “We have to make decisions and find the pieces that can get it done.”

One aspect of the team not getting it done has been the starting pitching, which has gone 15 straight games without a win. Mike Pelfrey, despite his hot start, is now part of the slide. Pelfrey won his first four starts while posting a 0.72 ERA, but has gone 0-1 with a 6.88 ERA in his last three starts.

Pelfrey is coming off a 119-pitch no-decision against Washington in which he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up four runs and seven hits.

With Oliver Perez not getting out of the fourth Friday night – and subsequently dropped from the rotation – and Jon Niese leaving in the third inning yesterday with a right hamstring injury, the Mets bullpen has been severely taxed.

The Mets are expected to dip into the minor leagues for a starter Wednesday in Washington and go with Hisanori Takahashi Friday night against the Yankees at Citi Field.

Here’s tonight’s line-up:

Jose Reyes, SS
Luis Castillo, 2B
Jason Bay, LF
Chris Carter, RF
David Wright, 3B
Ike Davis, 1B
Rod Barajas, C
Gary Matthews, CF
Mike Pelfrey, RP

NOTEBOOK: Reliever Ryota Igarashi (left hamstring strain) continues his rehab assignment tonight at Class A St. Lucie. Barring a setback, he will pitch back-to-back games for Class AAA Buffalo Thursday and Friday and then be activated. …. Reliever Kiko Calero, who at one time looked like he’d make the major league roster coming out of spring training, was released by Buffalo.

Nov 16

Rookie of the Year candidates ….

The National League and American Rookie of the Year Awards will be named shortly. It hasn’t been a busy day in Mets history as they’ve only had four winners: Tom Seaver (1967), Jon Matlack (1972), Darryl Strawberry (1983) and Doc Gooden (1984).

COGHLAN: NL Rookie favorite.

COGHLAN: NL Rookie favorite.


The award is just a reminder of how dry the Mets farm system has been. Barring injury, the only farm products the Mets know will be in their 2010 starting lineup is David Wright and Jose Reyes (the latter is coming off surgery).

Further rubbing it in, is that two of the three finalists, and the likely winner, will come within the NL East, that being Florida outfielder Chris Coghlan and Atlanta pitcher Tommy Hanson.

Coghlan, the favorite, led major league rookies in batting, on-base percentage, hits and doubles. He was sixth in the NL in hitting at .321. If Coghlan wins, he will be the Marlins third Rookie of the Year in the last six years, joining Dontrelle Willis (2003) and Hanley Ramirez (2006).
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