May 06

Bay needs to produce – and now.

BAY: He can't be smiling now.

I am not a big stats guy. They can be telling, but also misleading. With some numbers, you can twist them into meaning anything you want.

That’s not the case with Jason Bay, whose numbers have been fundamentally telling and just plain bad. He  hit six homers with 47 RBI while batting .259 last season. I am aware of the injuries and having a slow start, but he had enough of a window – 401 plate appearances over 95 games – to understand that’s terrible.

An  injury this spring  has limited him to 11 games and 48 plate appearances, but has only .256, with one homer and three RBI to show for it. Not a great window, but one that says it can’t go on like this much longer.

Of all his numbers, his 14-5 strikeouts-to-walks ratio is most telling. There’s not much plate presence.

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May 05

Beltran will be hard to deal.

Although he is playing well, it is not likely the Mets will be able to trade Carlos Beltran at the deadline, which would be their preference at to get rid of as much of his $18.5 million salary as possible.

BELTRAN: Won't be easy to trade.

 

Entering the season, at 34, Beltran’s age, salary and injury history assuredly meant it would be his last year with the financially strapped Mets.

Beltran is playing for one more contract, but can’t count on a team dealing for him this season and signing him to an extension at that time.

It likely won’t happen because even half of Beltran’s contract would be hard to swallow on a rental and four months is too small a playing window to ascertain if he’s worth long-term extension.

 

There’s also the matter of his agent, Scott Boras, who traditionally prefers putting his players on the open market.

Beltran has hit safely in 13 of his last 15 games, and is batting .294 with a .379 on-base percentage. Power wise, he has four homers and 11 doubles.

But, most importantly, he’s running well on his knees and has taken to right field. The health issues that have dogged Beltran the past two seasons appear behind him. Yes, it is early, but Beltran is playing regularly (the last game in which he had less than three plate appearances was April 12, the first game of a doubleheader against Colorado).

ON DECK: Mets pre-game with Mike Pelfrey.

May 05

Even against the best, the Mets had chances.

We saw what the Mets could do a week ago.  They were proficient in tacking on runs, scoring late and getting hits with two outs, and – surprise – with runners in scoring position.

CAPUANO: Strong effort wasted.

 

However, they were also doing that against Houston, Arizona and Washington. Teams not much better than them.

Now we are seeing what they can, or should I say, can’t do against the National League’s elite arms.

They were taken down last night by Tim Lincecum. Before that it was Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Those games also featured wasted pitching outings by Jon Niese, Chris Young and Chris Capuano.

Maybe it will get better when Jason Bay and Angel Pagan return, but their absence is really no excuse. Major league hitters must find away to manufacture runs. Even against the best, the Mets must play better than their current pace, which would net them 65 victories.

That’s good enough for last place, not much more.

As dominating as Lincecum was last night, the Mets left nine runners on base and went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. They had their chances.

This isn’t a team without opportunities. This is a team not good enough to convert them.

ON DECK: Even though he is playing well, Beltran will be tough to deal.

 

May 04

It won’t get easier against Lincecum.

The Mets have lost four of their last five games after winning six straight, and it won’t get likely won’t get any easier against Tim Lincecum, their third Cy Young Award winning pitcher over their last four games, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay being the others.

LINCECUM: Presents a big challenge.

Lincecum is 2-3 with a 2.90 ERA, numbers that say he’s not getting any run support. Of course, the Giants’ offense is why there’s been a lot of Jose Reyes talk the past couple of days. Yes, the Giants are interested. Why wouldn’t they be?  There are other teams as well, but let’s face it, only a few that can afford to sign him to a long-term deal.

Reyes reached base six times last night to raise his on-base percentage to .377, which isn’t what neither him nor the Mets would like it to be. Reyes has been hot over his last 12 games, hitting .367 with four doubles and eight runs scored in that span.

The Mets are wondering what to do with Dillon Gee, and a spot in the rotation isn’t out of the question should Chris Capuano struggle tonight. Capuano has alternated wins and losses in his last four starts. He gave up four runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings in his last start Thursday at Washington. The week before he gave up one run in seven innings against Houston.

During his pre-game talk with the media, manager Terry Collins touched on the following issues:

* Jason Bay will return to the lineup tomorrow after leaving the team on paternity leave.

* Johan Santana is progressing in his rehab, but didn’t offer a date when he’ll start throwing off the mound. Until that, it’s all speculation.

* Angel Pagan is maybe a week away from returning from the disabled list.

To talk about the Mets tonight, click onto the Mets Chat icon to your left.

 

May 04

Reyes trade rumors simmering again.

There’s buzz today after Jose Reyes’ stellar game Tuesday night when he reached base six times, unbelievably three times on walks.

REYES: We like his uniform dirty.

It is the kind of game the Mets routinely expect from Reyes, but one not often received the last two seasons because of a variety of injuries.

That the Mets couldn’t parlay such a performance into victory says that as potentially potent Reyes can be, this team still has weaknesses it must fix before it can return to contender status. These are holes that can be filled in part by what Reyes might bring back in a trade.

Bottom line: The Mets aren’t a contender now with Reyes and likely won’t be one if they deal him without making complementary deals.

Reyes passed the audition in the eyes of the San Francisco Giants, who, like every other team are discussing their options, of who interests them and whom they are willing to offer.

It is too early for serious trade discussions, but not too early to laying the foundation for when things heat up in June and July.

The Giants have not made and offer to the Mets for Reyes, but are doing their research. For the Giants, they will undoubtedly ask for a negotiating window, but if denied, San Francisco general manager Brian Sabean should have already decided whether he will sacrifice one of their top pitching talents or prospects to acquire Reyes as a rental.

From the Mets’ perspective, general manager Sandy Alderson must decide whether the return off prospects from the Giants, or Boston, or whomever wants Reyes, is greater than the draft picks they would get should the All-Star shortstop leave via free agency.

Alderson wanted to see two things from Reyes before deciding the 27-year-old shortstop’s fate in New York. The first was Reyes’ health, especially his legs and the first returns have been positive, although I find it puzzling as to why he didn’t try to steal second late in the game.

Secondly, Alderson wanted to see Reyes perform and for the most part he has with a .325 average and 11 steals in 29 games, but there were concerns about his on-base percentage before it surged to .377 last night. Still, an elite leadoff hitter, as Reyes is supposed to be, should be north of .400.

Reyes’ career on-base percentage is .336 and he has averaged 81 strikeouts and 51 walks a year during his career. The latter two numbers need to be reversed.

Reportedly the asking price for Reyes is a package of $100 million-plus, which Alderson said the Mets can afford, although they might not have much left for little else. With Carlos Beltran, Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and likely Francisco Rodriguez off the books there should be plenty of money left after this season to bring back Reyes if they really wanted.

The Mets don’t appear inclined to push things with Reyes. Alderson said he’s not adverse to talking contract during the season, although Reyes has said to the contrary.

Alderson still has time to see if Reyes remains healthy and productive. Whether Reyes stays or not, the Mets will receive something in return.

What they really must decide is if they want Reyes instead.