Nov 29

Wright Should Take Offer, But What Happens Next For Mets?

If the latest numbers are to be believed, then the Mets have done their due diligence and David Wright should have the deal that could enable him to finish his career in Flushing. If he plays in the 2013 All-Star Game at Citi Field wearing another uniform, then that’s his decision.

The reported seven-year, $125-million contract would give him the longevity he craves while making him the highest-paid, fulltime third baseman in the sport. Afterall, Alex Rodriguez does split his time as a DH and on the disabled list. Nobody will ever get a contract like Rodriguez’s again.

Wright has been adamant about wanting to be like future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, and a player he grew up idolizing – Cal Ripken – in wanting to play his career with the same team.

Wright is one of the few players I believe in when he says things such as that. Jose Reyes, I always thought, would take the last dollar possible. Wright never struck me as such.

There is a question about deferred money, but I don’t think of that as anything more than a retirement plan. That shouldn’t that insurmountable an obstacle.

I understand the need to retain Wright and have long been on board with it. However, it stands to reason that keeping him – and hopefully, R.A. Dickey – means absolutely nothing it the Mets remain the same.

Based on his numbers the past three seasons, that’s an extremely generous offer from the Mets. Yes, they would be overpaying, but they would be purchasing more than just a third baseman. Wright is the face of the franchise and should represent a commitment toward winning.

Keeping Wright and doing nothing else to build the team accomplishes nothing. The Mets’ current plan appears to be keeping Wright, perhaps Dickey, and a lot of hoping, such as:

* Johan Santana remaining healthy and productive in his final season as a Met.

* Breakout seasons from Jon Niese and Dillon Gee.

* A strong full first season from Matt Harvey.

* Josh Thole learns how to hit, hopefully with some power.

* Ike Davis adds to last year’s 32 homers.

* Ruben Tejada at least duplicates last year.

* Wright, for all that money, returns to becoming a power hitter.

* The outfield trio – if the season started today – of Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Mike Baxter can play as starters instead of role players. And, if not, somebody falls into their laps.

* They somehow, some way, piece together a bullpen.

 

Nov 28

Would John Lannan Be A Better Risk Than Bringing Back Pelfrey?

On Tuesday, Nationals beat writer William Ladson, tweeted that he expects the Nats to non-tender lefthanded starting pitcher John Lannan on Friday. Ladson also added that he believed Lannan would be a solid fit for the Mets.

I took a quick glance at Lannan’s career numbers and the first thing that came to mind was, “I’ve seen these numbers before”. I was looking at a lefthanded version of Mike Pelfrey.

Lannan, a New York native, has posted career marks of a 4.01 ERA and a 1.424 WHIP in 134 major league starts, while Pelfrey counters with a 4.36 ERA and 1.458 in 149 starts. Pelfrey had the benefit of pitching in a much friendlier pitcher’s park. Lannan also has a career 7.0 WAR compared to 5.4 for Pelfrey, despite a half season less playing time.

There has been talk of non-tendering Pelfrey on Friday, but bringing him back on a one year deal for much less money than he the $5.6 million he earned in 2012. As you know, he’s trying to comeback from Tommy John surgery which he had performed last May.

Given Lannan is a lefthander, is healthy, and has posted slightly better numbers in his career than Pelfrey, maybe Ladson is right, maybe we should take a closer look at Lannan and consider if he would be a better fit at this time than Mike Pelfrey would.

There’s no room for Lannan in Washington’s rotation. When they traded for Gio Gonzalez and signed Edwin Jackson his fate had been sealed. But the 28-year old has shown flashes of brilliance before and usually southpaws take a little longer to mature than righthanders do. He took his demotion to Triple-A pretty last season pretty hard and has a chip on his shoulder. The timing could be right for this low risk, high reward player.

He could be a solid addition for the Mets and someone we could use to give the team some depth in case of injury to one of our starters down the road.

Nov 28

Updated Offer To Wright; Dickey Talks Slow

The updated numbers for David Wright appear right, perhaps close enough for an agreement.

It was first reported yesterday the Mets made a $100-million offer for six years, but then a second report was for $125-million over seven years. Both are suitable proposals, but Wright seems determined for a seven-year deal that would run through at least 2020.

WRIGHT (R): Who will greet him at the plate in 2013? (AP)

At this stage of the game it is splitting hairs between six years and an option or seven years. In all probability, the seven-year offer would also contain an option, perhaps multiple options that kick in based on games played and plate appearances.

Major League sources said it was unlikely a deal would be reached before the Winter Meetings next week, which isn’t surprising as there are always loose ends in such a contract.

Meanwhile, the R.A. Dickey talks are slow, despite the organization penciling him into their 2013 rotation. Both Wright and Dickey maintain their decision could be impacted on the other. The Mets obviously deem their All-Star third baseman the top priority, as they should.

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Nov 27

Mets Make Wright An Offer He Can Refuse

Multiple news agencies report the Mets finally have an offer on the table for David Wright, one that will likely be rejected. The numbers are $100 million over six years, and that’s on top of the $16 million option the team already picked up for 2013.

Contemporaries Evan Longoria of Tampa Bay and Ryan Zimmerman of Washington have signed $100-million contracts. Based on that, the Mets believe they are making a fair-market deal.

CEO Jeff Wilpon said the preference is to have both Wright and R.A. Dickey play out next season and become free agents rather than trade them. The thinking is the compensatory draft picks would be more valuable than a handful of mid-level prospects and major league caliber reserves. Let’s face it, the Mets certainly won’t get players comparable to Wright.

On a related note, the Mets want to avoid the potential public relations disaster of having Wright and Dickey leave, only to come back as All-Stars with another team at the 2013 All-Star Game at Citi Field.

Such an occurrence would be far more damaging public-relations wise than letting Jose Reyes go last winter without an offer.

Wright’s agents are expected to reject the offer, as most first offers are. This will be Wright’s last chance for a big payday because he’ll be 36 or 37 by the time the new contract expires.

Ideally, Wright wants a contract long on years, similar to the one the Rays gave Longoria. However, Wright’s numbers haven’t been what they were earlier in his career and the last four seasons have included a variety of injuries. That would create some question from the Mets about his durability, although he played a full season in 2012 (156 games).

The average yearly salary would be $16.6 million, which represents a slight raise from the $16 million he’ll get this season. That certainly won’t fly with Wright’s agents.

Nov 26

Bar Set For David Wright Negotiations

Whatever you hear about what David Wright might be asking or the Mets might be offering, just understand the bar has been set by his contemporaries Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman, Both are close to Wright in terms of age and production. Just not salary.

The Tampa Bay Rays, long known as a team with low payroll agreed to a contract extension over the weekend with Longoria for $100 million over ten years. The deal includes the same terms of his current contract through 2016, then adds an additional ten years. There is an option for 2013.

LONGORIA: Sets the bar for Wright (AP)

Who knows if the Rays will be in Tampa by then, but wherever they go, Longoria will be with them.

Then there is Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals, who, after moving into their new park have become big spenders. Zimmerman, who is a long-time friend of Wright’s, signed an extension before spring training last year for $100 million over six years, including the final two years of his current deal plus four more seasons.

Arguments can be made both are better recently than Wright, who after two down seasons bounced back in 2012.

Longoria is the face of the Rays as Wright is to the Mets, but has better power numbers. He is 27 and Wright will be 30 five days before Christmas. Zimmerman is 28.

Remembering Wright is roughly three years older than Longoria and a year older than Zimmerman, he has 204 career homers with an average of 26 a season. Longoria has 130 with an average of 33. If he maintains his current pace, by the time he reaches Wright’s age, he could have 230 career homers.

Zimmerman has 153 career homers, averaging 25 a season.

The Mets maintain re-signing Wright is their priority, but seem close vested as to what they are willing to spend or how long a deal they might give. A ten-year deal like Longoria’s puts Wright close to 40 at the end, and likely well into the downside of his career, much like Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees.

The last four years have been below Wright’s standards and include trips to the disabled list for a variety of injuries, all sustained by playing hard. That includes lost time from the Matt Cain beaning, which can’t be termed an “age related” injury.

All that will be considered in the Mets’ offer.

Statistically, the three are fairly even with Longoria having the highest upside. Given that, I don’t see how the Mets could justify anything less than $100 million and six years, although recently I suggested they go $100 million over five years.

The years might vary, but $100 million appears to be the ceiling. Do you see the Mets setting the bar higher?

I didn’t think so.

Longoria’s contract will be argued as the bar for third basemen. It shouldn’t vary by much. The only real question is: Do the Mets want to spend the money?