Nov 30

Trading Bruce Next For Mets

The agreement with Yoenis Cespedes triggered the Mets’ willingness – perhaps eagerness – to deal Jay Bruce.

The three-time All-Star is 29 and will be making $13 million this year, all easily digestible numbers. Word is Toronto, which figures to lose both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, is interested. Reportedly, Bruce nearly landed in Toronto last year, but the deal fell through.

BRUCE: Toronto bound? (AP)

BRUCE: Toronto bound? (AP)

Several media outlets report the Mets and Blue Jays have spoken, giving legs to the possibility of a trade.

What’s not known is what the Mets are asking for Bruce. Do they want major-league ready talent or prospects? Mets GM Sandy Alderson has a reputation for being a tough negotiator in trade talks, and you’ll recall when the Mets traded R.A. Dickey to Toronto for Noah Syndergaard.

The Blue Jays have to be wary of dealing with Alderson. How can they not be?

What could derail a trade is if the Blue Jays signed Dexter Fowler, who played for the Cubs last season. It is not known if the Blue Jays have any interest in Curtis Granderson, whom the Mets are also reportedly willing to deal.

There’s a lot of stuff flying around this time of year, but the most ridiculous thing I’ve read has the Mets trading Travis d’Arnaud (presumably in a package including Bruce) back to Toronto for catcher Russell Martin.

While Martin would be interesting for a team needing that one catching piece, would the Mets really be interesting in taking on the 33-year-old catcher’s contract that pays $20 million for the next three years? Even if they shed Bruce’s salary, the Mets would choke on Russell’s contract.

Nov 29

Mets Play Cespedes Negotiations Perfectly … Get Their Man

Well, Yoenis Cespedes is coming back, which is what both he and the Mets wanted. Good for them, and Merry Christmas to both. I initially wrote the Mets would be better off spending the money earmarked for Cespedes – $110 million over four years reported today– on other areas and still believe that might be the best long-term decision.

CESPEDES: Coming back to Mets. (Getty)

CESPEDES: Coming back to Mets. (Getty)

However, when Cespedes filed for free agency a week after the World Series, I wrote if the Mets really wanted him they needed to set a deadline to prevent negotiations dragging into January. Apparently, both sides wanted this done by the Winter Meetings, which worked to the Mets’ advantage because reports of him going to Washington, the Dodgers or Yankees never developed traction.

Apparently, both sides wanted this done by the Winter Meetings, which worked to the Mets’ advantage because reports of him going to the Dodgers or Yankees never developed traction.

Perhaps Cespedes panicked when he saw there wasn’t a line at his door and he saw his big payday slipping away. Was that why he sent a text to the Mets before Thanksgiving reiterating his desire to come back? Reportedly, nobody was willing to give him the five years he wanted, but the only team to publicly state their interest was the Mets.

We can conclude Cespedes overestimated his value in the market, while Alderson judged it perfectly and applied enough pressure to make the 31-year-old outfielder blink. Good for Alderson: He had a plan and stuck with it.

After two playoff seasons, the Mets felt enough urgency to bring Cespedes back to keep their nucleus intact as much as possible. They already made moves in that direction by bringing back Lucas Duda, Neil Walker and Jose Reyes.

As far as spending the money given Cespedes elsewhere, that was an option, but in retrospect, the market for their primary needs – catcher and a closer to replace Jeurys Familia – isn’t readily available, or inexpensive.

It must also be remembered the Mets own a trade chip in Jay Bruce, so they have the opportunity to upgrade without spending big.

Sure, I have concerns, which I’ll save for later, but the Mets felt a need and they acted on it. They basically are keeping the team that reached the playoffs together, and that’s important. Instead of dabbling and adding two or three other players, they chose the path of least resistance and there’s a lot to be said for that decision.

 

Nov 23

Alderson’s Dilemma: Cespedes Now Or Pitching Later?

The New York Post reported what I speculated for weeks, and that’s Yoenis Cespedes wanting a five-year contract. The dollar figure is north of $100 million, likely in the neighborhood of $120 million.

SYNDERGAARD: Paying him or Cespedes. (FOX)

SYNDERGAARD: Paying him or Cespedes. (FOX)

That’s a lot of money, and with his reputation of offensive inconsistency – too many strikeouts against his home runs and RBI – and on-again-off-again hustling, that’s too much.

Also, he showed signs of physically breaking down last year by playing in only 132 games. You might say 2016 was a fluke, but think about his durability four or five years from now.

That brings us to the five years, figuring the Mets could be paying Cespedes close to $30 million for the last two years when he’s 35 and 36 and possibly not playing in more than 100 games in those seasons.

Considering they’ll also be on the hook for the remainder of David Wright’s contract, not to mention any long-term deals they might have for their young pitching. What do you want in five years: a fading Cespedes or Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz locked up? You can throw in Matt Harvey if you want, but I’m still banking on him bolting when he’s a free agent in two years.

That’s the dilemma GM Sandy Alderson is facing: Does he go in deep for Cespedes now or save it for those young, powerful arms?

Frankly, since there’s usually a bat or two in the free-agent market every winter, it’s really a no-brainer.

Please follow me on Twitter

Nov 22

Melancon My First Choice For Mets

With Edwin Encarnacion reportedly already rejecting an $80 million offer from Toronto and seeking five years, my first FA choice for the Mets is off the boards. And, with reports Yoenis Cespedes wants nearly $120 million over five years, he’ll be too expensive.

MELANCON: Go get him. (AP)

MELANCON: Go get him. (AP)

We know they aren’t going to get Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen, so my next choice for the Mets to go after is closer Mark Melancon. At 31 and coming off a 47-save season (after saving 51 in 2015), he offers consistency, durability (at least 70 appearances in five of the last six seasons), and figures to be young enough to keep on going for several more years.

Plus, he’s done most of his heavy lifting in the National League, so you know he understands the lay of the land. Speaking of which, you’d be taking him away from the Nationals.

Melancon made $9.6 million last year with Washington and Pittsburgh and is due for a big pay bump, but if what I’ve been hearing is true, he won’t come close to what Chapman and Jansen are seeking. Both are also hallucinating at five years (only an idiot would give a closer that long a deal) and might be had for three plus an option.

The production is there, the age is right, he’s been healthy and the finances seem to be in order.

What about Jeurys Familia, you ask. Figuring a suspension of at least 30 games, we don’t know what he’ll be like when he returns. And, when he does, he can either go back to the end of the line (middle innings) or possibly be traded.

Of all their questions, pitching is paramount for the Mets. We don’t know how their four surgically-repaired starters will be and can assume they’ll be on a short leash. That means more innings for the bullpen, which increases Melancon’s value.

Hitting is always easier to obtain than quality pitching. They can let Cespedes go and use the money elsewhere and hope for a good year from Jay Bruce.

That’s why Melancon is now my first choice.

Please follow me on Twitter

Nov 21

Dodgers Could Be Major Players For Cespedes

Regardless of how fast the Mets and Yoenis Cespedes wants this process to go, nothing will be resolved until the Los Angeles Dodgers are heard from. If the Dodgers are able to deal Yasiel Puig – reportedly linked to the While Sox in a proposed trade involving Chris Sale – they will put on a full-court press for Cespedes.

CESPEDES: Where is he running to? (AP)

CESPEDES: Where is he running to? (AP)

It could come down to the Mets vs. Dodgers for Cespedes, and if that’s the case, Los Angeles has deeper pockets and a greater willingness to spend than the Wilpons.

They aren’t without their holes with the prospect of losing closer Kenley Jansen and third baseman Justin Turner – although they will talk to both about coming back – but they have a clear need for a right-handed bat.

Who knows about the Yankees, whether they are just posturing with their interest or are sincere in bringing Cespedes to the Bronx? It could be either, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they really wanted him. Cespedes, of course, is made to be a DH.

The Dodgers are more likely to acquiesce to Cespedes’ reported salary demands of up to $129 million over five years. Meanwhile, the Mets are in at four years and up to $100 million. Remember none of these numbers have been confirmed by the prospective teams or Cespedes’ agent.

The Mets, fearing a physical breakdown, don’t want to give the fifth year. Actually, I don’t think they want to go four, but three would force Cespedes to hop on the next flight to LA.

If Cespedes really loves New York and the Mets, he’ll sign for far less. However, if it is all about the money, he’ll go West.

Please follow me on Twitter