Apr 01

Mets 2013 Over/Under Stats

Baseball loves its numbers, and for the gambler in all of us let’s look at some of the stats that could drive the 2013 Mets.

It will be fun to look back at the end of the season to see how many of these numbers were reached. (Note: A notation of even indicates that’s the number.)

Total wins: 70. My pick: Over.

Wins for Jon Niese: 15. My pick: Under.

Wins for Matt Harvey: 10. My pick: Over.

Wins for Dillon Gee: 9. My pick: Over.

Date Frank Francisco returns: May 15. My pick: Before.

Ike Davis homers: 35. My pick: Even.

Ike Davis strikeouts: 135: My pick: Over.

Daniel Murphy average: .295. My pick: Over.

Ruben Tejada average: .280. My pick: Under.

David Wright average: .300. My pick: Over.

David Wright homers: 25. My pick: Over.

David Wright strikeouts: 110. My pick: Over.

Lucas Duda homers: 24. My pick: Even.

Lucas Duda strikeouts: 150. My pick: Over.

Bobby Parnell saves: 28. My pick: Under.

Wins vs. Washington: 9. My pick: Under.

Wins vs. Atlanta: 9. My pick: Under.

Wins vs. Philadelphia: 9. My pick: Even,

Wins vs. Miami: 10. My pick: Over.

Wins vs. Yankees: 2. My pick: Even.

Date Mets will be 10 games behind leader. May 25. My pick: Before.

Mets wins at Citi Field: 52: My pick: Under.

Number of staff shutouts: 3. My pick: Even.

Number of times Mets shut out: 10. My pick: Over.

Team homers: 139: My pick: Under.

Staff blown saves: 15. My pick: Over.

Opponents homers: 150. My pick: Over.

Times DL is used: 19: My pick: Over.

First time DL is used: April 20. My pick: Before.

Longest losing streak: 7 games. My pick: Over.

Longest winning streak: 6 games. My pick: Even.

Date Travis d’Arnaud is brought up: June 1. My pick: Later.

Date Zack Wheeler is brought up: June 1. My pick: Before.

Number of Mets pitchers to start games: 11. My pick: Even.

Number of pinch-hit homers for Jordany Valdespin: 2. My pick: Under.

Times Terry Collins is ejected: 5. My pick: Under.

Wins for R.A. Dickey: 17. My pick: Under.

Homers for Jason Bay: 10. My pick: Under.

Date of Jordany Valdespin first tantrum: June 23. My pick: Before.

Number of Mets on Opening Day roster who won’t be on active roster Sept. 1: 4. My pick: Over.

Player acquisitions made prior to July 31 trade deadline: 3. My pick: Under.

Date Mets eliminated from contention: Sept. 15. My pick: Before.

Most games Mets are over .500: 4. My pick: Even.

Apr 01

Like It Or Not, Terry Collins Has His Team

COLLINS: Over/under when he stops smiling.

COLLINS: Over/under when he stops smiling.

The sun broke through the blinds this morning as it always does, but there was a different feel to the day. There was a chill in the air and patches of plowed snow remain, but one sensed summer.

It is Opening Day, and as I wrote yesterday, Major League Baseball doesn’t know what it has with this day. Fortunately, every one of us does.

We all know why the first game of the season is special to us. To many, Opening Day is the real New Year’s Day.

My favorite Opening Day was when my father took my brother and I out of school to watch the Indians. The teachers didn’t like the idea, but my father said we’d get more out of the game than that day at school.

He was right. He’s gone now, but that day was one of my favorite memories of him. I can’t say I remember in detail any particular day in grade school. The Indians won that afternoon, but went on to have a long and disappointing summer.

See, I grew up on bad baseball.

We don’t know what will happen with the Mets, but the conventional thinking is it will be a long year, but there are reasons to watch. By far, the most important being the Mets are your team and you always follow your team.

I never bought the term “die hard fan’’ because it insinuates an ending and giving up. You never give up on your team. They’ll always be your team for a reason, and if you’d like to comment on why the Mets are your team it would be great to read.

Like it or not, Terry Collins has his team, and here’s the batting order against San Diego:

Collin Cowgill, CF: Beat out Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Jordany Valdespin for the job because he’s the best combination of offense and defense.

Daniel Murphy, 2B: Dodged the disabled list to start. His patience and bat control are suited for the No. 2 spot in the order.

David Wright, 3B: Your best hitter in terms of average and power hits third. There’s no debate here.

Ike Davis, 1B: If he can put two halves together he might approach 40 homers and 120 RBI. He has that kind of power.

Marlon Byrd, RF: Spring training pick-up makes the team and beat out Mike Baxter for the starting job. Slotted fifth to keep Davis and Lucas Duda separated in the order.

Lucas Duda, LF: Moves over from right field. Spotty defender, but the Mets are waiting for a breakout year with his power.

John Buck, C: Holding the fort until Travis d’Arnaud gets here. Hate to say this on Opening Day, but if d’Arnaud comes up early and plays well, Buck could be desired at the trade deadline.

Ruben Tejada, SS: Coming off miserable spring training at the plate. Needs to show last year’s offense wasn’t a fluke.

Jon Niese, LHP: There’s no more debate, with Johan Santana gone he’s No. 1. Mets are counting on more than his career-high 13 wins.

METS OPENING DAY ROSTER

When the Mets are introduced this afternoon, there will be only nine players who were on last year’s Opening Day roster: Murphy, Wright, Davis, Duda and Ruben Tejada were in the lineup; Baxter was on the bench; Niese and Dillon Gee were in the rotation; and Bobby Parnell was the only reliever.

Come to think of it, for a team that seemingly didn’t do anything in the off-season, the Mets were busy.

Here’s this year’s roster:

Catchers (2): Buck, Anthony Recker.

Infielders (5): Murphy, Wright, Davis, Tejada, Justin Turner.

Outfielders (6): Valdespin, Cowgill, Byrd, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Baxter.

Pitchers (12):  Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, LaTroy Hawkins, Parnell, Niese, Gee, Jeremy Hefner, Scott Rice, Greg Burke, Josh Edgin, Scott Atchison, Brandon Lyon.

METS THIS WEEK

This title will be a weekly feature throughout the year.

The Mets host the Padres for three games starting with Opening Day and Niese going against Edinson Volquez. Harvey moves up to the second spot in the rotation and faces Clayton Richard on Wednesday, and it will be Gee against Eric Stults Thursday afternoon.

The Miami Marlins are in over the weekend.

On Tuesday, Santana will have surgery on his left shoulder in a last ditch effort to salvage his career. You’ve seen the last of Santana as a Met, but he will be rehabbing in Port St. Lucie. That’s a lonely and hot place to spend the summer.

ON DECK: Mets over/under for the 2013 season.

Mar 26

Encouraging News For Wright; Opening Day A Possibility

After he played in a minor league game today, the Mets softened their position on whether David Wright could be ready for Opening Day. When Wright was pulled from the World Baseball Classic last week, manager Terry Collins was thinking a month. Not any longer.

“I would not be surprised if David Wright is there Opening Day,’’ Collins told reporters today. “There will be a lot of things considered here on Thursday or Friday.’’

The Mets are doing the right thing in that both Wright and Murphy are playing in minor league games, so if there was a setback and they had to start the season on the disabled list it could be backdated into spring training.

Among the variables Collins will consider is the weather, as the intercostal muscles both are fighting could be vulnerable to further injury in the cold.

Both players were 1-for-5 today.

THE GAME: The Mets were ripped today, 11-4, by St. Louis, but the most thing to take from the game was Jeremy Hefner – who’ll replace Johan Santana in the rotation and on the roster – left early with a bone bruise on his right elbow.

On a bright note, Lucas Duda had three more hits, including his fifth homer, to raise his average to .302.

Mar 23

Mets Batting Order Reveals How Unsettled Team Is

There must be times Mets manager Terry Collins sits in his office with the door shut, puts his head in his head and wonders how he is going to handle his team.

There are probably times he thinks retirement might not be such a bad thing.

COLLINS: What's he thinking?

COLLINS: What’s he thinking?

In most camps, positions and batting orders are set a week from Opening Day. That isn’t the case with the Mets, where Collins is still juggling his options with one eye on the calendar.

Maybe he’s hoping that blizzard in Denver last night during the soccer game hits Citi Field on Monday.

In fairness, the order hasn’t been helped by the absences of David Wright and Daniel Murphy. Also, in fairness, he doesn’t have much to work with, as there will be no late arriving help for a roster, such that it is, that for the most part is set.

However, there’s nothing fair about baseball, and a manager must figure out what to do with the cards he’s dealt, good or bad. That’s his job; that’s what Collins signed up for.

There are times the batting order is a team’s GPS, as it tells you exactly where the team his headed. Today’s line-up is indicative of Collins’ dilemma:

Collin Cowgill, CF: If they aren’t going to carry Matt den Dekker in center, then Cowgill is the best option defensively. He’s there today, but has moved around all spring both in the outfield and his position in the order. It was thought Ruben Tejada could lead off, but he’s not hitting.

Justin Turner, 2B: With Wright out, Turner is supposed to play third. So why is he at second today? He’s hitting second, as has at least half a dozen Mets this spring. It’s clear the Mets aren’t settled at the No. 2 spot in the order.

Marlon Byrd, RF: I recently suggested Byrd hit third because he’s a veteran and arguably one of their more versatile hitters. I didn’t say best. If Byrd has the inside track to hit third, he should stay there this week. Byrd appears to have won the right field job from Mike Baxter.

Ike Davis, 1B: Hitting him third was never a good idea, but he has the most power. Clean-up figured to be his spot, so he never should have been hitting anywhere else this spring.

John Buck, C: I was wondering when they were going to insert a right-handed hitter between strikeout-prone Davis and Lucas Duda. Righty or lefty, somebody needs to hit between them as you can’t afford a combined 300 potential strikeouts hitting back-to-back.

Lucas Duda, LF: Duda is here for his power potential. But, with it comes his high strikeout potential and low on-base percentage. The Mets sent him down last year when he struggled, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same thing this summer. He’s still a work in progress, both at the plate and in the field.

Zach Lutz, 3B: He’s hit clean-up this spring, which is pointless because that’s for Davis. He’s still getting reps at third base, which means they are thinking of him there. That would also mean they are also thinking of Turner at second and not Jordany Valdespin.

Ruben Tejada, SS: Tejada is having the kind of spring offensively that would have sent most players to the minors. The Mets don’t have the depth to make that move. Until he starts hitting, he stays eighth.

Rafael Montero, RHP: Getting the spot start today because there are already holes in the rotation.

Sad to say, the only consistent and sure thing about the Mets’ batting order is the pitcher hitting ninth.

Mar 23

Mets Outfield Still A Mess; No Help Coming

For those hoping for a last minute trade or free-agent signing to give the Mets a representative outfield, there will be no meteor like event to change the obvious impression it will be a long season.

Sandy Alderson did not make a significant move over the winter to build the outfield. Instead he tinkered and went into spring training with a “hope for the best” mentality. Now, he’s telling reporters what nobody – outside the players involved – wants to hear which is the Mets are keeping a pat hand.

COWGILL: Could be in center on Opening Day

COWGILL: Could be in center on Opening Day

And, it’s not a full house.

“I think we’ve got a sense of who the five or six are who might be on the team,’’ Alderson said. “How exactly they’re used is something that we’ll talk about over the next week or so. What we have is what we’re going to have, and we’re not entirely displeased with that.’’

Doesn’t that also mean, they are not entirely pleased?

Also unsettling is outside of Lucas Duda in left field, the Mets don’t have a concrete idea of how they’ll use Marlon Byrd, Collin Cowgill, Mike Baxter and Jordany Valdespin.

That could be because they have no idea of what they are getting. Byrd is at the end of his career; Cowgill and Baxter have never been fulltime starters; and Duda is trying to learn a new position while at the same time attempting to figure out major league pitching.

Valdespin is now projected to open the season at second base because Daniel Murphy will not be ready. Murphy, down with a strained intercostal muscle, will not play in a minor league game today as hoped. Manager Terry Collins said if Murphy did not play this weekend he would open the season on the disabled list. The announcement is a formality now.

Collins has used Cowgill all over the outfield, while Byrd – perhaps having the greatest offensive upside – has played center and right. Baxter has been mostly used in right field.

The Mets’ best defensive outfielder is Matt den Dekker, but there is no indication they are considering him, citing his offense. Den Dekker has hit well recently, but not enough for the Mets’ liking. It should be noted, that neither has anybody else.

Of the group, only Duda and Baxter were on the roster last season, and Duda could very well be the only one in spring training next season if there’s development in the minor leagues or the Mets spend in the off-season as they promised.

Entering spring training, the penciled-in outfield – from left to right – was Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Baxter, with Cowgill rated No. 4. Byrd wasn’t even in camp and Valdespin was a long shot to make the team.

The acquisition of Byrd put him ahead of Baxter in right because of his offensive potential, and Valdespin hit his way onto the Mets’ radar.

There is no track record to indicate Valdespin will continue to hit and when Murphy returns he will find himself back on the bench.

What the Mets have is a handful of role players who have never performed in the role of a fulltime, productive starter.

What the Mets have is a problem.