Dec 30

Projecting Mets’ Shopping For Next Winter

Other than extending Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets have been relatively inactive this winter. Could it be they are preparing for next offseason? That’s not a stretch when you consider the potential holes in next winter’s roster. General manager Sandy Alderson should be busy – or he’d better be.

Let’s assume for a moment their young pitching staff gets through the 2017 season healthy and productive. That should alleviate that issue, but here are the others:

CONFORTO: Where will he play?  (Getty)

CONFORTO: Where will he play? (Getty)

CATCHER: If Travis d’Arnaud doesn’t take the next step, it’s hard to imagine they’ll bring back Rene Rivera for another year. The Mets are saying they’ll give d’Arnaud another chance to prove his worth. If not, they’ll have to look for help behind the plate. Their top catching prospect, Tomas Nido, is still at least two years away.

FIRST BASE: They have Lucas Duda for another year, but they are still making noise of experimenting with David Wright and Michael Conforto. Either would be a gamble. If Wright is healthy, the outfield glut might make Conforto the pick. However, what they are really hoping for is Duda to hold the spot until Dominic Smith is ready.

SECOND BASE: Neil Walker signed for one year, so he’ll be another issue. If they re-sign him again, it will be costly, perhaps at least $50 million over three years. Of course, there’s Wilmer Flores, but why are they so reluctant to give him a real chance?

SHORTSTOP: Asdrubal Cabrera‘s contract will be over after this season, but the Mets have two prospects in Amed Rosario and Gavin Cecchini. How much time will they see in 2017 and will it be enough to get them ready for 2018?

THIRD BASE: Wright, of course, will be a question every season. The Mets’ top-rated third base prospect, Jhoan Urena, will still be a year or two away. Will Jose Reyes show enough this summer to warrant an extension?

OUTFIELD: It’s complicated now after extending Cespedes. Presumably, he’ll play left, which means Conforto needs to find a place to play. Center field would seem to be the place, but the Mets want him to share the spot with Curtis Granderson. If they can’t trade him, Jay Bruce could share right field with him. Whatever happens, we have to figure both Bruce and Granderson will be gone after this season, so that should ease the logjam. However, the way things project, playing time could be sparse for both Conforto and Juan Lagares, which might wave a red flag.

BULLPEN: There hasn’t been an offseason in recent memory where the bullpen wasn’t an issue. Figuring Addison Reed pitches lights out in the closer role while Jeurys Familia presumably serves a suspension, he’ll be worthy of a raise. Should Familia pitch well again, he’ll get more money. As usual, the Mets will have to look for role pitchers.

Nov 14

Mets Shouldn’t Think Of Dealing Bruce Without Cespedes Resolution

MLB Trade Rumors reported the Toronto Blue Jays are interested in trading with the Mets for outfielder Jay Bruce. This is in anticipation of Toronto losing outfielder Jose Bautista and first baseman Edwin Encarnacion. That’s smart thinking on the Blue Jays’ part as they are likely to lose both.

Personally, I’d love for the Mets to sign Encarnacion, but after studying the early reports, I’m not thinking they can afford him. To do what they must do, I don’t think they can afford Yoenis Cespedes, either.

BRUCE: Don't trade insurance just yet. (AP)

BRUCE: Don’t trade insurance just yet. (AP)

As far as the Mets dealing Bruce, that would be crazy to do now. They picked up his option in anticipation of losing Cespedes. The Mets say they want to bring him back, but with what he’s asking and if negotiations for a new CBA drag, talks with Cespedes can last into January.

Cespedes, as expected, rejected the Mets’ $17.2 million qualifying offer. Since he turned down the Mets’ initial obligatory offer, the next negotiating move is for him to state what he wants. That seems simple enough.

If he walks and Bruce has been traded, the Mets will without any substantial power – left or right-handed. They can’t afford to wait until late July again for Curtis Granderson to wake up and nobody knows what to expect from Lucas Duda. GM Sandy Alderson is walking a tightrope with Cespedes, which is why I want him to push the envelope now.

If they want him, go for it hard. If their offers are for show – as they were with Jose Reyes – then walk away and build around Bruce, who, by the way, is younger and would come cheaper.

But, dealing Bruce without a resolution on Cespedes is simply reckless.

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Nov 03

Mets Take Step Away From Cespedes; Pick Up Bruce’s Option

The Mets took their first step in moving away from Yoenis Cespedes when they picked up Jay Bruce’s $13-million option Thursday afternoon. Cespedes has until midnight Saturday to inform the Mets he will opt out of his contract to become a free agent.

CESPEDES: Will opt out. (AP)

    CESPEDES: Will opt out. (AP)

The Mets fully expect Cespedes to opt out and have thought that for months. Reportedly their plan is to wait out the process, much like they did with him last winter and Johan Santana years ago.

They took their time last year and Cespedes was on the verge of signing a five-year, $110-million package with Washington before changing his mind and going back to the Mets. Based on such history, figure that’s where the bidding will start, but considering his 31 homers in 2016, it could be higher.

The Mets have been enamored with Cespedes since he powered them to the 2015 World Series. Although he had a flat Series against the Royals, the Mets were hot to bring him back. Cespedes was an electric hitter for the Mets this year, but there were also long dry stretches, injuries, and his high maintenance persona.

They traded for Bruce when Cespedes as hurting and struggling with the hope he would ignite their offense. He did not and clearly disappointed Mets’ fans until the last two weeks of the season.

When the Mets acquired Cespedes from Cincinnati, they said at the time their control over Bruce’s contract was a crucial variable as it was their hedge on Cespedes leaving. That means they’ve been counting on Cespedes – who is at least two years older than Bruce by the way – leaving. Hell, I thought he would opt out when I first learned of his contract.

Reportedly the Mets will offer Cespedes a qualifying offer of roughly $17 million as to acquire a compensatory draft pick. That’s just good business. Cespedes, of course, is expected to decline, which is good business on his part.

Is Cespedes worth $110 million over five years? I don’t think so, but then again it’s not my money.

There are a lot of things $110 can buy, including:

* Adding a closer, an unforeseen need with Jeurys Familia expected to be suspended for at least 30 games after being arrested on domestic abuse charges.

* Signing one or more of their young pitchers to a long-term deal. That is if they are physically able.

* Bringing back Neil Walkers, who filed for free agency today

* Bringing back set-up reliever Addison Reed, who’ll cost them at least $11 million a season.

* Picking up a variety of pieces around the Mets, including patching the bullpen; Lucas Duda; improving their catching; bringing back Curtis Granderson for another year if they desire; and a myriad of other possibilities.

They can do all that, plus extend Bruce, if they move on from Cespedes.

Oct 13

Others Counting On Cespedes

There are a multitude of pros and cons on whether the Mets should extend outfielder Yoenis Cespedes should he opt out of his contract, which he is expected to do.

CESPEDES: Others waiting on him. (AP)

CESPEDES: Others waiting on him. (AP)

In weighing their options, the Mets must remember Cespedes is the lead domino in determining decisions on four positions, which is half their lineup.

LEFT FIELD

Cespedes insisted on playing left field after he strained his right quad after misplaying a ball in center. If Cespedes has to play left again, that leaves Michael Conforto on the outs.

CENTER FIELD

The Mets banked on Cespedes to play center, but he balked after the injury. They wanted Cespedes in center so Conforto could play in left. With Cespedes in left, Curtis Granderson (who has one more year left on his contract) would share center with Juan Lagares, whom the Mets really want at the position because of his defense. At one time, the Mets toyed with Conforto in center, but that never materialized. They also need to find a way to work Brandon Nimmo in the mix.

RIGHT FIELD

The Mets have to pick up Jay Bruce’s option as a hedge on Cespedes leaving. Signing Bruce necessitated moving Granderson. If they keep Bruce, he could be traded should Cespedes choose to stay. If last winter was any indication, Cespedes will drag this out.

FIRST BASE

In an effort to play Conforto, they’ll try him at first base. If that works out, that means there’s so place for Lucas Duda or James Loney.

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Oct 12

Mets Arbitration Eligibles

The following Mets are arbitration eligible. The Mets traditionally settle with their players to avoid the process.

The website MLB Trade Rumors lists what it projects will be the settle figure.

PITCHERS

Josh Edgin ($500,000): MLBTR projects $800,000. Considering that’s hardly much of a raise, if the Mets want him back this should be easy.

Jeurys Familia ($4.1 million): Projected settle figure is $8.8 million, which is a huge raise. The Mets will low-ball him, but his production is worthy of settling because he’ll win.

Matt Harvey ($4.3 million): Projected settle figure is $5.2 million, but for what?

Jacob deGrom ($600,000): Projected settle figure is $4.5 million, roughly a 700 percent raise. This should give the Mets an idea of what a long-term contract might cost them.

Addison Reed ($5.2 million): First thing I thought about when the Giants’ closer blew the last two games of their playoff series what they’d better extend him somehow because he’ll be in high demand as a closer. Projected settle figure is $11.1 million.

Jim Henderson ($507,000): Considering all those eligible, the Mets might not even offer arbitration. Projected settle figure is $1.4 million

Zack Wheeler ($546,000): See Harvey. $1 million

CATCHERS/INFIELDERS

Travis d’Arnaud ($540,000): He certainly isn’t worthy of a raise, but there’s no industry with a salary structure like baseball. Looking at their other catching options means he’ll be offered arbitration. Projected settle figure is $1.7 million

Rene Rivera ($443,000): The projected settle figure of $2.2 million is a lot for a backup.

Lucas Duda ($4.2 million): Considering the uncertainly of their other options they will probably end up paying the projected settle figure of $6.7 million.

Wilmer Flores ($520,000): He’s worthy of getting the projected settle figure of $1.9 million

OUTFIELDER

Justin Ruggiano ($180,000): They probably won’t offer arbitration and be stuck paying the projected settle figure of $1.5 million.

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