Nov 13

Ike Davis Draws Interest; Should Mets Have Second Thoughts?

The New York Mets seem determined on dealing Ike Davis, and considering his lack of production and injury history over the past three years it’s a reasonable position.

ESPN reported the Mets are drawing interest for Davis from several teams, and it can be concluded the following are the primary reasons: 1) he has a track record for power, hitting 32 homers in 2012; 2) he’s a solid defensive first baseman; 3) he’s cost-efficient, having made $3.1 million this year; and 4) he’s young, at 26, meaning there’s time to turn it around.

DAVIS: Mets talking trade for him. (AP)

DAVIS: Mets talking trade for him. (AP)

For those very attractive reasons, and that teams have been cool on Lucas Duda, might be reason for the Mets to reconsider and give Davis another shot.

The general belief from scouts is Davis is young enough to resurrect his career, and a change-of-scenery with different coaching might have him again hitting bombs.

The Mets can give him a raise and they can give him another chance, but what they can’t give him is the different coaching and change-of-scenery.

Part of the rap on Davis is he’s reluctant to take coaching advice, but that’s stuff you hear privately and something he vehemently denies. Criticism that is easily verifiable is his propensity for striking out, a low on-base percentage, and an all-or-nothing mentality at the plate.

Alderson told ESPN at the general managers meetings in Orlando Wednesday he’d like to make a move soon, but, as always, reiterated he won’t make a move just to make a move.

“In our situation, we’d like to do something early,” Alderson said. “It would be great, if it’s the right move, and if that kind of thing is possible. It may be. It may not be. We’re working at it, but I can’t predict anything.’’

The teams reportedly interested in Davis are Houston, Milwaukee, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Colorado. Naturally, they’d prefer to deal him to the American League.

From Davis’ perspective, each of those teams have better hitters’ parks than Citi Field, with Camden Yards and Coors Field particularly enticing.

Alderson acknowledged sensing urgency from the often-disappointed Mets’ fan base, but that’s no reason to make a panic move.

Speculation of a trade involving Davis would most likely be as part of a package, or one team dealing a disappointment for another. Nobody will surrender somebody of substance one-on-one for Davis.

Not that Davis has gone wire-to-wire without problems – either injuries or dreadful slumps – but if the Mets deal him they would be going with the largely unproven Duda. Another first base option could be Daniel Murphy, but dealing him opens a hole at second base unless they acquire a left-fielder and move Eric Young to the infield.

Reportedly, the Mets spoke with free-agent shortstop Jonny Peralta Wednesday.

The Mets’ top four priorities are at least two starters; shortstop; a power-hitting outfielder; and bullpen depth.

NOTE: Mets pitcher Matt Harvey finished fourth in the National League Cy Young Award balloting Wednesday.

Nov 10

Mets’ GM Alderson Goes To GM Meetings With Many Needs But Few Options

There is normally little action at the GM meetings, which begin Monday for New York Mets GM Sandy Alderson in Orlando, the same city in which the winter meetings will take place a month later.

Alderson is open to discuss trades and signing free agents, but realistically the Mets have little trading pieces on the major league level, and the most coveted prospects on the minor league level he wants to protect.

Alderson knows he must protect his young pitching assets while Matt Harvey mends from Tommy John surgery.

The free agent market will be flooded Monday when those players given qualifying offers are expected to reject them to test the market.

Let’s face it, the Mets won’t be serious bidders for Jacoby Ellsbury, are expected to lose out on Shin-Soo Choo, and will likely be outbid for Stephen Drew. This leaves the Mets still with holes in the outfield and shortstop.

The Mets also have need for two starters at the back end of the rotation, a back-up catcher for Travis d’Arnaud, depth in the bullpen and a decision to make at first base between Ike Davis and Lucas Duda.

Alderson has a lot of work to do, and despite saying he has the latitude to make a $100-million package, but Ellsbury and Choo what more than that and more than four years.

So, Alderson will be in Orlando to meet with general managers and agents and must be creative.

 

Nov 07

Mets Arbitration Projections

MLB: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB Trade Rumors posted their arbitration predictions today. Daniel Murphy stands to be the biggest winner nearly doubling his 2013 salary to $5.8 million dollars.

Guaranteed Contracts

David Wright – $11.0 million (2013), $20.0 million

Jon Niese – $3.0 million (2013), $5.05 million

Arbitration 1

Dillon Gee – $527,375 (2013) $3.4 million

Ruben Tejada – $514,701 (2013), $1.0 million

Justin Turner – $504,547 (2013), $800,000

Eric Young Jr. – $492,000 (2013), $1.9 million

Lucas Duda – $504,000 (2013), $1.8 million

Arbitration 2

Ike Davis – $3.125M (2013), $3.5 million

Daniel Murphy – $2.925M (2013), $5.8 million

Bobby Parnell – $1.7M (2013), $3.2 million

Omar Quintanilla – $527,375 (2013), $900,000

Arbitration 3

Scott Atchison – $700,000 (2013), $1.3 million

Assuming each player is tendered and these arbitration estimations from MLB Trade Rumors are correct, that’s about $24.5 million in raises without adding any new players.

The total payroll for these 12 players comes to $48.7 million.

If you’re wondering what players could be non-tendered and added to the free agent pool this offseason after the non-tender deadline on December 2, here is a list from MLBTR.

Oct 23

Mets Player Review: Ike Davis

ike-davis-gordon-donovan

IKE DAVIS, 1B

PRESEASON EXPECTATIONS

After missing most of the 2011 season with an ankle injury, Davis struggled for much of the first half but avoided a trip to the minor leagues with the promise of the 19 homers he slugged in his 2010 rookie season when he finished seventh in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Davis responded with a scorching second half in 2012 that salvaged his season with 32 homers and 90 RBI. The wishful thinking on the Mets’ part was two strong halves could lay the groundwork for perhaps the breakout season they had long hoped for the first baseman with the looping swing and game-breaking power. Even with the homers Davis produced some worrisome numbers, such as a .227 average, .308 on-base percentage, and 141-61 strikeouts-to-walks ratio. If Davis could cut down on his swing and improve his patience at the plate, why couldn’t he become a star?

CAREER STATS

Screenshot_2

2013 SEASON REVIEW

Davis didn’t come close to two strong halves. He didn’t even have two mediocre halves; try an awful first half and a poor second half. Davis couldn’t avoid the minor leagues this year, and consequently played in just 103 games with 317 at-bats. Davis hit .305 with a .326 on-base percentage, .334 slugging percentage, nine homers, 33 RBI and 101 strikeouts with 57 walks, and most discouraging, had no better plate presence when he returned than when he left for Triple-A Las Vegas. The season ended with speculation the Mets might not tender him a contract and let him leave as a free agent. Davis made $3.1 million last year, and even a miniscule arbitration raise would seem too much for the budget conscious Mets. The current plan is for Davis and Lucas Duda competing for the first base job in spring training.

LOOKING AT 2014

John Delcos Says: Manager Terry Collins said after the season he didn’t think it would be likely the Mets could carry both Davis and Duda coming out of spring training. Trading Davis for anything of quality would be highly unlikely this winter. Teams needing a first baseman might gamble on the Mets waiving Davis as not to give up a player. Should Davis make the Opening Day roster, how could anybody project with any confidence he will finally have a breakout season? Davis’ track record is one of injury and poor performance, with one good second half in 2012. Given that, there’s nothing other than blind hope for the Mets to expect anything productive from Davis. The season ended with Davis needing a lot of work to become a viable major leaguer let alone a good one. He didn’t get that work over the winter.

Satish R. Says: You know, if you asked me a couple days ago what I thought the organizational opinion was on Ike Davis — I’d tell you that they had no faith in him whatsoever. When they mentioned that first base is a position they wanted to upgrade at, it felt like the Mets were saying they had no confidence in Lucas Duda or Ike Davis — which is the feeling of most of the fanbase as well. But then I read this tweet from Jon Heyman that said the Mets passed on Abreu because of Davis, Duda, and guys like Josh SatinDaniel Murphy, and Wilmer Flores. Talk about your mixed signals, right?

If Sandy Alderson meant anything that he said about spending this offseason, and the team turns out to be in a better position — you have probably seen the last of Ike Davis in a Mets uniform. But honestly, if we’re not going to make any actual moves this winter, the Mets might as well tender Ike a contract and give him one last chance. As I always say, players don’t hit 32 home runs by accident, especially 22 in one half — so there’s potential there. I just don’t know if he’ll be able to tap into it again…

TOMORROW: Lucas Duda

Oct 10

Numbers That Defined The Mets’ Season

There were a lot of statistics that added up to give the Mets their second straight 74-88 record in 2013. Here are some of the more notable, some good, some bad and some down right ugly. I am sure there are more and would love to hear your suggestions:

2: Home games sold out.

2-4: Matt Harvey’s record after 7-1 start.

4: Grand slams by Mets hitters, none who were with the team at the end of the season (John Buck, Marlon Byrd, Collin Cowgill and Jordany Valdespin).

4: National League teams Mets had winning records against (Arizona, Philadelphia, San Diego and San Francisco).

7-15-5: Record in home series.

7: Number of hitting streaks of 10 or more by hitters Mets’ hitters, led by Daniel Murphy, who had three.

8: Walk-off hits by David Wright to lead team.

8: Mets hitters who struck out at least 70 times, including three – Byrd, Lucas Duda and Ike Davis – with over 100.

8: Games pitched in by Frank Francisco, who made $6.5 million.

8-8: Jon Niese record, a drop of five victories from a career high 13 in 2012.

9: Homers by Davis, 23 fewer than in 2012.

9-12: Record in extra-inning games. Successful teams win these types of games. Overall, the Mets played 57 extra innings, the equivalent of just over six extra games.

10: Different hitters used in the leadoff spot, a void filled by Eric Young.

11-61: Record when trailing after six innings.

11-9: Interleague record, including 4-0 vs. Yankees.

12: No decisions in games started by Harvey.

13: Different pitchers used to start a game.

14-25: Record vs. NL playoff teams.

15-12: Record in July, their only month with a winning record.

15: Outfield assists by Juan Lagares, most by a rookie and tied for third in the majors.

15: Different hitters used in the sixth spot in the order.

18: Different hitters used in the seventh spot in the order.

18: Home runs by Wright to lead the team (Byrd had 21 before he was traded to Pittsburgh).

20: Quality starts by Harvey.

22-73: Record when bullpen gives up a run.

25: Percentage of potential base stealers thrown out by Mets catchers.

26: Victories by the bullpen.

26-59: Record when opponents scored first.

29-28: Record in one-run games.

31: Come-from-behind victories. This is after trailing at any point in the game.

33-48: Record at home.

34: Two-out RBI by Murphy, most on the team.

34-42: Record vs. National League East. (9-10 vs. Atlanta; 8-11 vs. Miami; 10-9 vs. Philadelphia; 7-12 vs. Washington).

46: Stolen bases by Young to lead National League.

55-38: Record when getting a quality start.

112: Games played by Wright.

130: Mets homers; opponents hit 152.

131: Different lineups used.

.147: Duda average with runners in scoring position.

188: Hits by Murphy, second in the National League.

.242: Mets’ average with runners in scoring position. The Mets had close to 3,000 runners in scoring position and only 441 of them scored. Mets’ hitters struck out 315 times in this situation and grounded into 26 double plays.

.265: Opponent’s average with runners in scoring position. Opponent’s scored 529 runs in this situation, aided greatly by 35 home runs.

.306: Team on-base percentage, 25th in the majors.

504: Innings pitched by the bullpen, just over three a game.

619: Runs scored, 684 runs allowed for a -65 run differential.

1,384: Strikeouts by Mets hitters, most in the National League, which is the equivalent of 51 games played without hitting a ball other than a foul.

2,135,657: Total attendance, their lowest since drawing 1.77 in 1997 at Shea Stadium.