Feb 22

Mets Have Something To Prove

It looks like Sandy Alderson has unwittingly coined the Mets’ slogan for 2012, “We All Have Something To Prove“. Sandy reiterated that phrase again during an appearance on MLB Network’s Clubhouse Confidential. “There is not a player on the club who doesn’t have something to prove, whether coming back from an injury, coming back from poor or substandard performance. ”

If you ask me, the players aren’t the only ones who have something to prove.

It was also interesting to hear him say, “we only had one player who had great season and well now he’s gone.” Yes, Sandy, we’re all well aware of that…

Who remembers “Fuzzy Math”?

“The effective payroll will be about the same as it was last year, in terms of the players we actually have on the field.”

That’s what Sandy tells people whenever the subject of a $90 million payroll comes up in a press conference or interview…

Alderson now reminds me of a person who is finding it hard to come to grips with the reality of the situation.

Well, we didn’t really shave $50 million from our payroll… Effectively you need to only count the dollar amounts of those who were on the field – than you deduct for time spent on the DL and prorate it, and when you finally perform all the calculations and remember to carry over the one, then you’ll see that we actually increased payroll in 2012.

Oh, brother…

So does that mean if Johan Santana doesn’t pitch, it effectively gives the Mets a $67 million dollar payroll for 2012?

Okay, got it… What about you? Did you get it too?

It think it’s time for “Alderson-speak” to become the new meme for the Mets blogosphere. Yes, it’s time…

Feb 08

The two Mets I am most curious about this season.

No doubt there are a myriad of questions and curiosities about the 2012 Mets, but two I am wondering about most are Lucas Duda and Mike Pelfrey.

DUDA: Can he be the real deal?

I’m skipping the obvious choices, David Wright, Johan Santana and Jason Bay. With Wright, either they’ll trade him or they won’t. With Santana, he’s either healthy or he’s not. And Bay? Based on his first two years with the Mets, I have no expectations.

Duda and Pelfrey are different to me because their performances can dictate a lot about the future.

Duda combines loads of power potential with limited defensive capabilities. He’ll be in right field, a position where power is a necessity. We can’t project Duda for 30 homers because he’s never done it. For that matter, he hasn’t hit more than 10, and that was last season in a short window.

That short window production is what has us salivating. There’s no doubting his strength, and the shorter fences should help, but there are other factors. How will he adjust to National League pitchers and how will they adjust to him? Will he produce over the long haul and with the pressures of starting?

Duda is still a babe in the woods, but that potential has me thinking that if he can handle right field, this could be a player with a bright future.

We’ve been saying “bright future” about Pelfrey for years. He seemingly had a breakthrough 2010, but regressed greatly last season. Well, which is it? Pelfrey is still young enough where he can have a good career. He’s also not commanding the big dollars.

However, he’s an enigma and what he does this season could determine whether the Mets cut ties with him or make a commitment. Pelfrey’s performance could also dictate the future of pitching coach Dan Warthen.

If Pelfrey pitches as he did in 2010 and several of the other Mets’ questions are answered in the positive, the Mets could be competitive and entertaining this summer. If not, the projected long summer will be upon us.

Feb 04

Mets did not win Santana trade.

I read a blog posting this morning that claimed the Mets won the Johan Santana trade, based on the talent given up, but lost the contract extension. This couldn’t be any less accurate or more naive.

SANTANA: On the hook for three more years.

While it is true the players surrendered didn’t amount to much on the major league level and Santana did have several productive years, one cannot separate the trade from the contract because they are linked. The trade was made because Santana waived his no-trade clause and agreed to a six-year extension.

Translated: There would have been no trade without the contract.

I wrote at the time the Mets overpaid for Santana both in terms of players – not that it matters now – and in money. That has proven to be correct.

The market for Santana was Boston and the Yankees, and the Mets only became involved only after both those backed off because of the Twins’ demands. When the deal was made Omar Minaya admitted Santana came back to them.

In essence, the Mets were bidding against themselves, something Minaya also did in the contracts for Francisco Rodriguez, Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and several others.

The contract of $137.5 million over six years was excessive for Santana because of the accumulated innings on his arm and he had a previous arm injury. Six years is a gamble for any pitcher at any time because of the fragility of the arm, shoulder and elbow. Too many things can go wrong and the team ends up paying from damaged goods.

I believe, as I did then, the Mets misjudged the market and overpaid for Santana. While he did win for the Mets, he was injured at the end of every season and required surgery. The Mets already paid for one season and received nothing, and it is possible they could be on the hook for three more years.

Any trade is a gamble, but this one the Mets lost. That is, unless Santana makes a full recovery and pitches – and wins – for a pain-free three more years.

Anybody want to take that bet?

Jan 31

Mets Had The 27th Best Offseason

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, ranked which teams had the best offseason and had the Angels ranked first followed by the Yankees, Rangers, Cardinals and Tigers rounding out the top five. The Mets were ranked 27th.

27. METS – They lost their most exciting player (Reyes) and their best hitter (Beltran), so established players like David Wright and Jason Bay have to bounce back. They dealt Pagan to the Giants for outfielder Andres Torres, and added bullpen pieces in Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and Ramon Ramirez. Johan Santana returns from a major shoulder injury, but what are you getting?

Cafardo had the Padres, Athletics and Astros as the only teams ranked worse than the Mets.

The Mets are banking on healthy returns from key players such as Johan Santana and Ike Davis, and comeback seasons from Mike Pelfrey, Jason Bay and David Wright who are each coming off the worst seasons of their careers.

As far as new additions go, they have replaced Frankie Rodriguez and Jason Isringhausen with Frank Francisco and Ramon Ramirez, and Andres Torres will replace Angel Pagan in centerfield and most likely Jose Reyes in the leadoff spot. Jon Rauch was also added to the bullpen, while Ronny Cedeno, Omar Quintanilla and a few other minor league signings will help fill bench roles.

Dec 07

Are the Mets any better?

I’ve been scanning some of the other blogs and was surprised some believe the Mets are better now than they were at the end of the season.

How?

Make no mistake, I always thought Jose Reyes would leave, but until they add quality from their savings, I just don’t see where you can make the argument the team is better without him.

They’ve lost the NL batting champion and replaced him with Ruben Tejada. I like Tejada’s potential, but it isn’t proven production. So, there is a downgrade at shortstop.

Gone from the rotation is Chris Capuano, replaced by …. you tell me. I’m not buying into Johan Santana until I see him pitch regularly.

Angel Pagan and Andres Torres are essentially the same player. Torres is better defensively, and the improvement is in shedding Pagan’s sometimes lackadaisical attitude. That’s not saying the Mets won this trade.

The Mets added two pitchers to their bullpen with strikeout capabilities, but you have to ask yourself if they were so good why would they have been available? I’m seeing it as exchanging one set of mediocre arms for another.

The Mets still have questions in their rotation, bullpen, first base, catcher, second base, left field and right field.

Other than shedding payroll for the promise of doing something later, I don’t see where they’ve gotten any better.

 

ON DECK (Today): The market for David Wright.