Apr 05

Mets’ 2012 over/under

I like to post a Mets over/under list at the start of every baseball season. With the expectations low for the season, most of the stat lines will fall on the short side as well.

Here we go:

Mets wins: 75

Times Mets are shut out: 9

David Wright’s HR total: 27

Jason Bay’s HR total: 15 (talk about low expectations).

Jason Bay GIDP: 17

David Wright’s games played: 140

Ike Davis HR total: 22

Lucas Duda HR total: 17

Daniel Murphy’s BA: .312

Daniel Murphy’s errors at second: 14

Andres Torres’ BA: .275

Games before fans boo Jason Bay: 0 (they’ll do it today).

Johan Santana starts: 23

Johan Santana wins: 11

Mike Pelfrey’s ERA: 4.50

Jon Niese’s wins: 14

Josh Thole passed balls: 12

Blown saves by bullpen: 18

Ruben Tejada’s BA: .270

Frank Francisco saves: 21

Mike Pelfrey HRs allowed: 20

Different Mets to go on the DL: 12 (they have two now).

Victories over Phillies: 5

Victories over Yankees: 3

Number of stolen bases by team leader: 19

Number of stolen bases by Jose Reyes: 50

Marlins victories over Mets: 9

Chipper Jones’ HRs vs. Mets: 3

Dillon Gee’s win total: 10

Date before first managerial rumblings on Terry Collins: May 26

Victories in April: 9

Apr 02

Parnell sharp; Santana gets Opening nod.

Bobby Parnell, who had been uninspiring during his tenure with the Mets, has been scintillating this spring, enough where they could consider opening the season with him in the closer role if Frank Francisco is placed on the disabled list with a sore left knee.

PARNELL: Has had excellent spring.

While Parnell was throwing three scoreless innings at Atlanta in a spot start – because the Mets didn’t want Jon Niese to face the same team he’ll pitch against Sunday – Francisco was getting an MRI.

“Early in camp I felt a little sore in there and it went away,’’ Francisco told reporters today. “In the last three days, I felt soreness in there again, but that’s it. We’re going to take care of that. I did my workout and everything, and it felt fine, but they’re going to take a look at it.’’

 A MRI, followed by manager Terry Collins saying he was concerned about Francisco’s knee can’t be a good omen for the injury ravaged Mets.

Francisco, a Toronto castoff, was signed to a two-year, $12-million contract in the offseason. The Mets also signed another Blue Jays’ reliever, Jon Rauch, but he’s been ineffective this spring with a 7.94 ERA. Parnell, who struggled in the closer role last September, hasn’t given up a run in 12 1/3 innings during spring training.

Despite his success, I’m not so sure moving Parnell to the closer role is the way to go if Francisco’s injury is deemed short term. The Mets have bounced Parnell around in the past and he has not responded to the changing roles. Because he’s been pitching well I’d be reluctant to tinker with him.

I would reconsider that position if Francisco’s injury is determined to be long term.

Meanwhile, the Mets finally announced Johan Santana will be the Opening Day starter Thursday against the Braves. Santana would be followed in the rotation by R.A. Dickey, and Jon Niese.

 

Mar 31

Injuries to the forefront as Opening Day nears

Much of how the Mets perform this year will be contingent on their starting rotation and core players getting significant playing time because the depth is weak. GM Sandy Alderson said as such earlier this week.

SANTANA: Might not be ready.

The biggest name is Johan Santana, who is earmarked to make the Opening Day start, but despite not having a setback – at least not one the organization will admit to – nobody has etched his start in stone.

After nearly two years, what’s the rush now? Especially if the weather is cold and rainy Thursday, why push the envelope? Even Santana is as healthy as the Mets are claiming, then there’s no reason not to push him back a start or two for him to further build his arm strength. What could it hurt?

Meanwhile, David Wright, who has missed nearly all of spring training isn’t in baseball shape. His legs aren’t there. Neither is his stamina. Yes, he could play and gut it out, but why take the gamble?

Andres Torres does not look good in center field. The word is awkward. He’s over in the minor league camp now. He might get enough at-bats by Thursday, but he’s not running fluidly.

None of the three are 100 percent. There are times throughout the season when a player will play with aches and pains. That’s part of the job. But, these three are trying to recover from injuries which sapped a considerable amount of time from them. They clearly could use more time. With how the Mets have handled injuries in the past, they should opt for caution.

It’s a long season, so don’t make it any longer by risking a significant injury.

 


Mar 30

Pelfrey arguably key to season.

Now, was that so hard?

After so many stinkers last year and this spring, Mike Pelfrey finally came up smelling like roses last night. At least somebody wearing Pelfrey’s number did.

PELFREY: Time to get serious.

Yes, I realize it is one game after so many bad ones, but spring training is for getting your hopes up, and if not for Pelfrey, then for whom?

One run on three hits in 6.1 innings is a quality start, one I’d take every time, and one reminiscent of 2010 when for most of the summer he was all the things he was supposed to be.

Pelfrey significantly regressed last year and by his own admission said this could be a make-or-break season for him. If he duplicates last year, it is easy to see the Mets cutting ties with him. They’ve already bounced that around in passing this spring, but realistically had no other choice but to keep him.

He had a bum ankle early in camp, but his arm seems fine. He has experience. He’s been successful at times, although inconsistently so. He has a reasonable salary ($5.68 million). He’s young enough to turn it around. There have been a lot of late bloomers in the sport (Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax come to mind). While not saying he has the potential of either, two summers ago he had months of dominance worthy of the hope of seeing it again.

Because of his inconsistency, Pelfrey’s value to the Mets is greater with the hope of him turning it around. And, with pitching their biggest concern – and no guarantees with Johan Santana – if the Mets are to have any semblance of a competitive team they need Pelfrey to start cashing his potential chips.

A lot of things must happen for the Mets to avoid the season everyone is projecting for them, and it begins with Pelfrey to quit licking his fingers and start pitching to his expectations. Beginning now.

Mar 27

Will Mets hold back Santana?

This injury-riddled spring for the Mets has had one bright spot and that is the rehab of Johan Santana. His velocity has increased, topped off at 92, then leveled off to the high 80s in yesterday’s start.

SANTANA: Will they hold him back?

Santana’s arm strength has improved, but not to where the Mets would have hoped to start the season. I don’t believe a final start will get him to the level the Mets want, so after all the work he and the Mets have put in, why push the envelope now?

It’s been two years, so what’s another couple of weeks? The Mets must be cautious with this decision because Santana could represent a competitive and fun summer. I see the Mets holding back a couple of weeks to give Santana more time to build his strength with an extended spring training.