There are a myriad of statistics to explain what has happened to the Mets this season, but there’s one that stands out like neon. The Mets are 4-18 at home since the All-Star break. They have scored three or fewer runs in 17 of those games, including their last ten straight.
Overall, they are an unacceptable 30-38 at home as they begin a three-game series tonight against the Washington.
They haven’t had a futility stretch in scoring like their last ten since 1988. The franchise record is 11 straight, achieved – is that the proper word? – in 1979 and at the end of the 1966 season and start of 1967.
They are facing Gio Gonzalez tonight before what should be a small smattering of people with nothing else better to do. The Mets drew less than a combined 75,000 for the three-game series against Atlanta. The Jets drew over 79,000 yesterday.
Traditionally, contenders aim to win at home and be .500 on the road and the Mets have failed in both accounts.
With the Mets not expected to substantially increase their payroll next season, I wouldn’t expect there to be dramatically different team than the current edition. We’ll have to wait until they clear $50 million in salary for Johan Santana and Jason Bay after next year to see what they put on the field for 2014.
The Mets, 4-11 this season against the Nationals, will start this line-up tonight:
Ruben Tejada, ss
Ronny Cedeno, 2b
David Wright, 3b
Scott Hairston, rf
Ike Davis, 1b
Kelly Shoppach, c
Jason Bay, lf
Andres Torres, cf
Collin McHugh, rhp
The Mets had moments this season when they clicked offensively. During those times they worked the count, went the opposite way and were disciplined at the plate. They never did hit with reliable power, but the patient approach and manufacturing runs is the best way to go anyway.
Then that all stopped. Maybe the hitters put too much pressure on themselves when the pitching faltered. Who knows?
They are sliding back into bad habits as the season winds down. After a blistering first half, David Wright is not the same hitter and is swinging with an uppercut. Lucas Duda is a lost cause at times and pitchers can get out Ike Davis working him away. Let’s not even talk about Jason Bay and Andres Torres. Daniel Murphy just doesn’t hit with power.
As much as the Mets need a right-handed outfield bat with pop, currently there doesn’t seem to be the resources to spend on a name player considering how they need to overhaul the bullpen and possibly add a starter.
Multiple media outlets are reporting what we all expected, that the Mets will lose a considerable amount of money this season – $23 million – despite an influx on money and the positive ruling in the Madoff case.
The $23 million is an improvement over last year’s reported loss of $60 million, but not enough to get optimistic over a spending spree this winter. Next year’s payroll is projected to be around $95 million with any additional bucks the Mets dole out go towards keeping David Wright and R.A. Dickey.
The rest of their 2013 building plan will be patchwork and hope of improvement from within. The Mets cut $50 million in payroll from last year to this and the reflection hasn’t been seen in the standings. In fact, in some respects the Mets exceeded expectations. Of course, when they were so low to begin with does it really matter?
A bulk of next year’s payroll will be a combined $50 million earmarked for the often-injured Johan Santana – who is out for the rest of the year – and outfielder Jason Bay, who hasn’t come close to living up to his $66 million pact. Hey, Bay could win the Triple Crown next year and he’ll still have been a bust.
Both come off the books after next year unless GM Sandy Alderson can pull off a miracle trade.
The Mets are off today giving us other things to think about, such as the Giants’ secondary and inability to put together a running game. Also a chance to lament about another September of non-meaningful games for the Mets.
The Mets are mired in fourth place, thinking about how a hot run could have them chasing .500, which would be a successful season. Personally, I’d rather have the collapses of 2007 and 2008 than what they are today. At least they were in a pennant race, and if you’re a baseball fan, that’s all you can ask for from your team.
Since 1997, when Orioles manager Davey Johnson was named manager of the year and fired the same day by Peter Angelos, the franchise that long symbolized baseball excellence had hit the skids.
The Orioles showed some improvement last year, but were still projected to finish last in the AL East. But the Orioles have some power, their bullpen has pitched well and they took an impressive 24-7 record in one-run games. That record, despite a negative run differential, is the probably the single most significant stat to explain why the Orioles are in a pennant race.
Conversely, the Mets are 17-18 in one-run games, symbolic of a team with sporadic power and an inconsistent bullpen.
Can the Mets improve enough from within to be a contender like the Orioles?
Baltimore has more power, where the Mets’ anticipated power from David Wright – he’s fallen way for of expectations in that area- Jason Bay and Lucas Duda hasn’t been there. Maybe Wright and Duda will produce next year to bring the Mets’ power numbers up.
Building a bullpen is a tricky proposition and should Sandy Alderson accomplish that objective, perhaps Citi Field will be alive as Camden Yards will be tonight. It could be if the Mets split their losses in one-run games. Add nine wins and subtract nine losses and the Mets are right there in wild-card contention.
Split those losses in one-run games and the Mets are playing meaningful baseball in September.