May 03

Mejia to have Tommy John surgery; must figure the worst.

Jenrry Mejia is seeking a second opinion on his medial collateral ligament, as is his right, but don’t bet the new doctor will offer a better alternative than Tommy John surgery. And, regardless of whom performs the surgery, the Mets can’t think all will be well in a year.

The Mets must continue on without Mejia in their plans, and although there are examples of pitchers who have come back from the surgery, there are similar examples of those who did not. Subsequently, the Mets must conduct business without Mejia in their plans and consider anything out of him in the future as a bonus.

The Mets eschewed an opportunity last season to deal Mejia, and the thinking at the time was sound. He was too good a prospect to just deal. I thought the Mets handled Mejia poorly last year in juggling his role, and it is speculation as to how much that contributed to the injury.

MEJIA: Mets must figure he's done.

It will be at least a year before we know whether Mejia will be sound enough to pitch, and even then there’s no guarantee he’ll be a hot prospect again.

There are examples on both sides of the aisle, of those who returned to have successful careers, and those who didn’t.

There’s no way of knowing where Mejia will be, but this much is sure, the Mets will be seeking pitching. The question is: How much are they willing to spend, both in prospects in the trade route and dollars in the free agency path next winter? The Mets must consider anything they get from Mejia as a bonus and look to build without him.

These pitchers made it back from Tommy John surgery: Josh Johnson, John Smoltz, Billy Wagner, David Wells, Tim Hudson, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Liriano and Chris Carpenter. And, of course, Tommy John.

These pitchers didn’t make it back: Kerry Wood (although he had a good season last year as reliever for the Yankees), Scott Williamson, Pat Hentgen, B.J. Ryan, Darren Driefort, Kris Benson, Phil Humber, Jaret Wright, Mike Hampton and Bill Pulsipher.

There is a wide enough sampling where it can go either way with Mejia, but we won’t know for at least a year, and there’s no telling what the Mets’ financial landscape will look like by then.