Jan 11

F-Mart decision puzzling.

The Mets could be hours away of losing Fernando Martinez on waivers, the decision made to place Scott Hairston on the 40-man roster. After all this time of choosing not to deal Martinez under the guise of protecting their youth, the Mets are poised to lose him so they could keep a journeyman outfielder.

The Mets opted not to rush Martinez to the majors because they wanted him to learn and get at-bats in the minors, which made sense according to conventional thinking.

Of course, the Mets are anything but conventional.

Martinez has not proven he could stay healthy, but if the option was losing him over keeping Hairston, I would have kept him this spring as a fourth outfielder to see if there was any chance of him developing.

After all, he is only 23, and history has seen plenty of late bloomers.

As it is, Martinez is sure to get claimed. As for Hairston, who wouldn’t be surprised to see him dealt to a contender at the trade deadline. And, if not, for sure we won’t see him next season.

This just makes no sense.

 

Oct 25

Mets have precious few pieces to trade. Plus poll on dealing Wright.

There are three ways for a team to build: free agency, drafting and trading.

With a stated budget of just over $100 million, Sandy Alderson’s free-agent options are limited, especially if he dives into the deep end of the Jose Reyes pool. He’ll be looking to plug holes in the bullpen and rotation with middle-tier talent. Cheap bench players are always available.

WRIGHT: Most tradeable Met?

There is potential in the minor league system, but it is the lower minors, which the Mets want to avoid delving into. Solid drafting is the best way to lay the foundation and the Mets are making progress in that direction and figure to keep their young talent.

 

That leads us to trading, and things aren’t rosy in that department, either.

David Wright, who has been in decline the past two seasons, has the biggest upside and a manageable contract. He’s a cornerstone, especially if Reyes leaves, and the player who intrigues other teams, believing a change of scenery would benefit him. A Wright trade would mean serious re-building for the Mets, but he’s the player who would bring the most in return.

Trading him is a franchise-defining decision.

Other than Wright, what is the market value for some of the others?

Josh Thole: Young, inexpensive with more potential than production. Thole did not perform to expectations and wouldn’t draw attention from a team wanting a starting catcher. Teams needing a catcher have more experienced options in the free-agent market. It’s hard to believe anybody would trade for him to be a starter.

Ike Davis: Could be attractive, but after missing much of the season with an ankle injury he represents a risk. Young, inexpensive and loaded with potential – if healthy – he’s the ideal piece for the Mets to keep and build around.

Ruben Tejada: Impressed a lot of scouts and would draw interest, but the Mets will need him at shortstop if Reyes goes or at second if he stays. He’s not going anywhere.

Jason Bay: You must be joking. People are saying all the time that the Mets should trade Bay. What planet are they on? Bay has not played well since signing as a Met; he’s been injured and has a hefty contract. Can you see the line forming now? The Mets have two hopes for him: 1) he stays healthy and meets expectations to salvage the final two years, or 2) if that doesn’t happen, then he doesn’t get the necessary at-bats and games for his option to kick in. Two more years.

Angel Pagan: Regressed this year to the point where the Mets might not tender him. He’d sign somewhere as a bench player, but nobody will trade for him.

Lucas Duda: Scouts love his power potential and he played decent defense in right field. He would be part of a larger package, but wouldn’t be someone teams would want to trade for to build around. Besides, the Mets’ outfield forecasts as weak, so he’s getting the full time shot in right.

Fernando Martinez: Had been sought after in previous years, but is a fragile, injury risk whose value has declined. Too bad they can’t turn back the clock two years. If the Mets can swing something with him, they should do it, but his real value to them would be to stay healthy and reach his potential, which is becoming less and less likely.

Johan Santana: Nobody knows how healthy he is, which means he’s staying put for now. Should Santana come back and be solid and healthy in the first half, you could see the Mets trying to deal him if they aren’t in contention. Even if they were, they might pull the trigger on a trade to free up salary. This bears watching, but not until June and July.

Mike Pelfrey: Has a manageable contract and is young. He regressed this season, but there’s still potential for the right pitching coach. But, if they trade him, he would thin out an already spotty rotation. The Mets will keep him and hope he improves. If not, then it might be time to cut him loose. There could be takers at the trade deadline.

Jon Niese: Coming off an injury and who knows if he’d pass the physical? Mets love his potential, so he’s not going anywhere.

R.A. Dickey: Teams don’t trade for journeyman knuckleball pitchers in the off-season. They wait for the trade deadline. He’s been arguably the Mets most consistent starter, but he’s a No. 4 according to most scouts, maybe a No. 5. He’s somebody a contender might covet in July, but he’s not going to bring back a lot of talent.

Dillon Gee: Surprised a lot of people this season. But, the pitching deficient Mets won’t move him. After a great start, Gee had a rocky second half, which makes him a question to the Mets, not to mention any team with interest.

Bobby Parnell: Young and a power arm is always attractive. Not so much is his command and thought process on the mound. There are no assurances the Mets will make him their closer as there are numerous reports saying that is their greatest need. If Parnell can’t convince the Mets he’s closer worthy, then what must other teams be thinking? Right, he’s a bullpen piece who needs a lot of work. Not a long line here.

 

So, if you look at the Mets’ trade options, dealing Wright would net the most, but you have to wonder what considering he’s several years removed from his best season. There are limited other options to deal and they are most suited for moving at the trading deadline.

Aug 08

Damn, maybe they are cursed.

I don’t believe in curses, I really don’t. But, with the Mets, they make you wonder.

Daniel Murphy sustained a Grade 2 MCL tear yesterday. He wasn’t even in the starting lineup, but entered late and left soon after when the Braves’ Jose Costanza slid into his left knee at second base. He’s done for the season. No surgery, but four months of recovery time.

MURPHY: Gone for year.

The way Murphy was hitting it appeared he turned the corner and all the Mets had to do was find a place for him. This is twice now where he’s been injured at second base, so that’s not his sweet spot.

At this timetable, Murphy won’t begin rehabbing until January, so we have no idea if he’ll be ready for spring training.

Meanwhile, Reyes, who missed 16 games with a strained left hamstring last month, reinjured the hammy running out a ball in the first inning.

If the same level of injury landed Reyes on the DL last time, it’s probably a decent assumption to think the same now. In any case, he won’t be playing soon.

Yesterday, I suggested Reyes was returning to earth with his injury and subsequent slump. There’s no reason to pull off that now.

Reyes has had hamstring problems at various times during his career, playing in just 54 games in 2004 and being limited to 36 in 2009. Yes, he had that stretch from 2006-08, but in seeking a long term contract they look at the recent injury history.

The injuries to Reyes and Murphy are two of many to the 2011 Mets, who are without Johan Santana – perhaps for the season – and another starter, Chris Young, for the year. David Wright missed two months with a stress fracture to his lower back, and Ike Davis is likely done for the year with an ankle injury which could require surgery.

On the lower levels, Fernando Martinez and Jenrry Mejia have all missed significant playing – and developing – time.

Ironically, as the Mets face losing Reyes to free-agency, this injury could enhance their chances. That is, if they want to take the risk. Should Reyes miss a significant amount of more time, his price could dip to where the Mets could be players.

But, do they want to bring back a guy who can’t stay on the field?

 

Jul 26

Reaction to prospect of non-tendering Pagan.

I chuckled this afternoon when I read an account suggesting the Mets could non-tender Angel Pagan this winter after this disappointing season. Pagan has not built on last year’s strong showing, but that hardly means the Mets are looking to dump him. If they were, they’d be shopping him now, but aren’t.

PAGAN: Odds say he'll stay.

Pagan is making $3.5 million this year and arbitration eligible. It isn’t as if he’ll break the Mets’ bank this winter.

The Mets are precariously think in the outfield now, and will only get thinner once Carlos Beltran is traded. Fernando Martinez is hardly proven he’s ready to play full time next year, let alone stay healthy.

Jason Bay has a spot in left because he has a contract that can’t be traded and maybe they’ll give Lucas Duda a chance in right. Who’s going to play center all season? Jason Pridie? Scott Hairston? Hardly.

Pagan has been a disappointment, but showed us something last summer to warrant another chance. Of course, all of this would be a moot point if the Mets signed a free-agent outfielder or traded for B.J. Upton.

It’s not happening. Expect to see Pagan again in 2012.

May 26

Dickey goes for Mets in road trip finale.

The Mets close their series at Chicago this afternoon behind R.A. Dickey needing a victory to give them a split of their six-game road trip.

Here’s the batting order:

Jose Reyes, SS

Josh Thole, C

Carlos Beltran, RF

Jason Bay, LF

Daniel Murphy, 1B

Justin Turner, 3B

Jason Pridie, CF

Ruben Tejada, 2B

R.A. Dickey, RP

NOTES: Terry Collins said Fernando Martinez will be optioned to Triple-A Buffalo when Angel Pagan is activated from the DL tomorrow. … Collins said he doesn’t plan on moving Jason Bay to the two hole in the batting order.