Dec 07

Patience Is Mets’ Winter Meetings Approach

The Mets enter the Winter Meetings with three needs, but don’t expect any to be met soon because of their approach of waiting out the process.

They are seeking a shortstop, a right-handed bat off the bench and left-handed reliever.

The Mets want an upgrade over shortstop Wilmer Flores, but for now aren’t biting on Stephen DrewAsdrubal Cabrera or Jed Lowrie. They could have had any of the three if they wanted and their thinking is to wait this out to see if their asking price will drop.

Another possibility, Didi Gregorius, was acquired by the Yankees in a trade. The Mets aren’t inclined to deal to fill any of their needs unless a team takes either Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese or Dillon Gee. Because determining the free-agent market usually comes before trades, the problem facing the Mets in dealing their pitchers is teams needing pitching first want to see where Jon Lester, Max Scherzer or James Shields land.

So, for now, waiting appears to be the Mets’ course of action. No surprise there.

 

Dec 04

Tulowitzki Is Wishful Thinking

Unquestionably, a healthy Troy Tulowitzki makes the Mets a better team. I read something again today about the Mets dealing for him, but if you are a true fan of the team you know that’s not how they do business.

TULO: Just wishful thinking.

TULO: Just wishful thinking.

The last star the Mets traded for was Johan Santana, but they were closer to winning then than they are now. Plus, it is debatable how that trade worked out.

At 30, Tulowitzki is still in him prime and last year’s numbers of .340, 21 homers, 52 RBI, .432 on-base percentage and 1.035 OPS through 91 games before he was injured make a compelling argument for breaking the bank.

However, if you’re a true Mets fan – and I assume most of you are – then you also know “the bank,’’ is the franchise’s North Star. Tulowitzki is owed $129 million over the next seven seasons and to the Mets’ line of thinking, that number supersedes those at the plate.

And, we haven’t gotten to the part yet about the Rockies’ demands. Sorry, but Daniel Murphy and Dillon Gee – both of whom the Mets would love to trade because of their salaries, which combined are less than $13 million – won’t cut it. This isn’t talk-radio fantasy land when you give up nothing for a star.

At least two of those young arms the team is building around have to be included. There is also the possibility that to make this deal Tulowitzki’s contract would be modified. He has a clause that prohibits him being traded more than once, so, if the Rockies deal him the Mets would not be allowed if they believe the contract is a burden. At least, not without a cost.

A red flag is Tulowitzki’s injury history, which has prevented him from playing more than 140 games only once since 2009.

If the Mets were really on the cusp, then go for it. However, there are too many variables that scream this is not the right player at the right time. The Mets finally rid themselves of burdensome contracts and are making themselves competitive again.

This is too much of a gamble.

Nov 30

Mets’ Trade Options Limited

The Winter Meetings begin a week from today, but the Mets’ time in San Diego figures to be uneventful because they only have one commodity to spend – and saying that is a stretch.

It is fashionable to say the Mets have lot of young pitching and they do, but they aren’t willing to trade Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. You can appreciate them reluctant to trade any of these foundation building blocks.

GEE: Trying to move him.

GEE: Trying to move him.

But, the Mets are more than willing to trade Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese. The common denominators are they are at the back of the Mets’ rotation and make the most money.

Another common thread is none are expected to bring much in return, which means don’t anticipate anything happening. At least, anything of significance.

Two will be the Opening Day rotation because Syndergaard won’t be brought up prior to June to preserve his Super Two status. Bet on it being Niese and Colon, with Gee possibly going to the bullpen in long relief.

However, at $5 million, that’s steep for the bullpen, and more so for the minor leagues.

With other options, both of the trade and free-agent variety available in the market, teams could shy from Niese ($36.5 million over four years if both options are picked up) and Colon ($11 million).

Niese’s contract, injury history and mediocrity make him especially hard to trade.

If the Mets move any of the three, it might be more likely to happen at the trade deadline.

 

Oct 07

Handicapping Trade Value Of Mets Pitchers

To get something, you have to give something, but what the New York Mets don’t want to give up is their young pitching. Understandable, but how long can they hold out?

The Mets say they won’t deal Matt Harvey, remember there is no such thing as an untouchable. What if some team, in the words of Don Corleone, give them “an offer they can’t refuse.’’ If the Angels offered Mike Trout straight up for Harvey, that’s something I would seriously consider. Arguably the best position player in the game for a prospect with all of 12 major league victories? Who wouldn’t?

HARVEY: Everybody likes him. (AP)

HARVEY: Everybody likes him. (AP)

Let’s take a look at the Mets’ young arms in relation to their trade ability and the scenario in which they could be dealt:

MATT HARVEY: Everybody wants him and that’s a given. However, coming off Tommy John surgery there might be a twinge of reluctance of making a big offer although the odds of recovery are good. They might get more if Harvey rebounds with a good season, which would undoubtedly spike his value. The Mets delayed Harvey’s arrival to avoid arbitration and later free agency. But, that’s not to say he won’t eventually bolt when given the chance considering his sometimes rocky relationship with management. If he continues to perform well and the Mets don’t sign him to a long term contract, his contract would increase through arbitration. Sometime in that process, if they can’t get a long term deal done, they might seriously think of trading him off before he leaves as a free agent to the Bronx.

ZACK WHEELER: Some scouts say his stuff is better than Harvey’s, but he doesn’t have nearly the poise or knowledge of pitching. Harvey is way ahead in those areas. Wheeler is reminiscent of Nolan Ryan early in his career when he threw hard with no idea where the pitch would go. Wheeler tries too much for the strikeout, which elevates is pitch count and reduces his innings. His potential is so raw that he’s worth waiting for, but conversely it is so attractive there will be takers. Another thing about Wheeler, and this also applies to Harvey and Jacob deGrom, is they are under reasonable contracts. It’s not like a team is picking up Clayton Kershaw’s contract. Also, with all three the Mets don’t want to sign them to such contracts, but other teams could sense that as a sense of urgency.

JACOB deGROM: It would be a crime if he is not the Rookie of the Year. He’s closer to being where Harvey is than Wheeler. He’s got great stuff, an outstanding breaking ball, poise and a sense about what pitching is all about. He’s definitely more a pitcher than a thrower. Like Harvey in his first year, deGrom caught teams by surprise. It might be different in 2015. But, I like this guy and would be more disappointed if he were traded than Harvey or Wheeler.

NOAH SYNDERGAARD: Some scouts say he might be the best prospect of all, but we really won’t know what he has until he pitches at the major league level, which won’t be June at the earliest. He’s got a terrific breaking ball, great stuff and by all accounts could be the real thing. We shall see, and I hope we see it in Flushing.

JON NIESE: He’s left-handed, throws hard, 27 and signed to a reasonable contract. That makes him attractive to the Mets and other teams. What’s not to like? Well, there’s his injury history, inconsistency (only one winning season in seven years), and the bad habit of not being able to put away hitters and lets innings unravel. The argument is a change of scenery might help, but unlike the previous four mentioned his value has decreased.

RAFAEL MONTERO: He has loads of potential, but other teams also see that in him. He’s a lot like Jenrry Mejia in that the Mets haven’t found a definitive role for him. Starter or reliever? He could be in the rotation until Syndergaard is ready and Niese were traded. But, on Opening Day I see him either in the bullpen or Triple-A.

DILLON GEE: He’s rated no higher than a fifth starter and could be bumped to the bullpen when Syndergaard is ready. Too bad. Gee doesn’t have great stuff, but is mentally tough – until he gets to Philadelphia – and shows a lot of poise. He’s somebody that could get the Mets something at the deadline as he can also work out of the bullpen in long relief. There’s things a contender could like about him. Question is, will the Mets be such a contender? The Mets could have traded him numerous times, but there were no serious takers. That says something.

BARTOLO COLON: At 41, he threw over 200 innings and won 15 games. Was it all him, or did the move to the National League and spacious Citi Field have something to do with that? Colon will get $10 million in 2015, of which half of that will be gone by the trade deadline. If the Mets are in it, they’d be wise to keep him, but if he’s pitching well he could bring something in return in the right package. He’s being shopped, but nobody will offer anything until they explore the free-agent market.

BOBBY PARNELL: I remember the day he hit triple digits on the radar gun at Fenway Park. Buy, it never happened for him as a starter thanks to Jerry Manuel. He won the closer role in 2013, but missed last season because of an injury. Should Mejia or Jeurys Familia win the closer role and Parnell proves healthy in spring training, he could be attractive and available.

JENRRY MEJIA: When the Mets were bouncing him from the bullpen to the rotation his value declined. Especially when it lead to elbow surgery. Now, it was a sports hernia that cut his breakout season. Mejia showed he has the stuff to be a closer, especially since he’s learning how to pitch rather than just trying to blow heat past a hitter. There’s value here.

JEURYS FAMILIA: Had an outstanding rookie season and drew a lot of attention. Some believe he could be the closer of future, however some teams might think he could be a closer now. This is a tough one considering the fragile nature of constructing a bullpen. Of these three relievers, Parnell could be the most available, but also bring the least in return.

 

Apr 29

Dillon Gee and His Amazing Streak

DILLON GEE, RHP

There might not be any starting pitcher in the game who is more underrated than the Mets’ Dillon Gee. The righthander delivered his best effort of the season on Sunday, tossing eight shutout innings against the Miami Marlins to help the Mets take the series two games to one.

Gee, who celebrated his 28th birthday on Monday, struck out five and confounded the Marlins with his signature changeup and a slider that’s become a great out pitch for him. Whenever he’s on the mound, he gives the team a chance to win and the baseball odds at Allpro confirm it.

“It was one of those good days,” Gee said. “I just try to go out there each time it’s my turn and do the best I can and get as deep as I can, and give us a chance to win. As long as we win at the end of the day, I’m a happy guy.”

Despite having thrown 110 pitches, Gee wanted to pitch the ninth, but was told no by manager Terry Collins.

Opponents are now hitting .193 against Gee this season. He has an 0.86 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts, in which he’s allowed only two extra-base hits.

“He got us to where we wanted to get to,” Collins said, “That was pretty much the end.”

Gee’s remarkable stretch that began last season when he struck out 12 Yankees on May 30, has him among the game’s elite. The Mets righty has a 2.75 ERA over his last 28 starts, topped only by Clayton KershawZack GreinkeYu DarvishJulio TeheranMax Scherzer and Adam Wainwright. among pitchers with 20 or more starts in that span.

For the season, Gee’s ERA stands at a pristine 2.88 with a 1.043 WHIP. Better yet, over his last three starts he’s 2-1 with a 0.86 ERA.

It might be time to start talking about an extension with Gee, who has become the most reliable starter in the Mets rotation and one of the top arms in the NL.