Jan 24

Who Will Wright’s Teammates Be In 2015?

WRIGHT: Who will play alongside him in 2015?

WRIGHT: Who will play alongside him in 2015?

 

Let’s take a look at a bulk of the Mets’ 40-man roster and make some projections on what things might look at in 2015, the year cited by many as when the team will be ready for primetime.

Of course, there’s no accounting for injuries, trades or players leaving as free agents.

Johan Santana: Will be gone after this season as there’s no way the Mets can afford keeping him – even if he’s healthy this year – and think they can be a contender. The Mets will attempt to trade him, but even if they absorb much of his contract there will be few takers.

Jon Niese:  He’ll still be under contract and hopefully will have developed into a topflight pitcher. He’s lefthanded, throws hard and under cost control. All reasons teams covet him and why the Mets should keep him.

Matt Harvey: If he lives up to expectations, he’ll be a star. Should he have a big year in 2013, the Mets might consider wrapping him up as they did Niese. That’s the best way to have cost certainty.

Dillon Gee: Unless he steps up his game, he’ll be gone. There’s potential there, but unless he harnesses it, Zack Wheeler could push him out of the rotation.

Jenrry Mejia: Your guess is as good as mine. Starter or reliever? It can’t be both. Mejia has had limited opportunities because of how the Mets waffled with him. His stock has fallen and he could be gone in three years.

Zack Wheeler: He’s highly rated and barring setbacks should be in the rotation by then. How good he’ll be is anybody’s guess.

Bobby Parnell: Closer or bust. Parnell showed something at the end of last season. If he doesn’t win the closer job by 2014, he’ll likely be gone.

The bullpen: Never mind 2015, how about 2013? There’s such a turnover in bullpens in today’s game that it is hard to project. Do the Mets have a bullpen prospect that can be pegged as a potential closer? Nobody outside of Parnell will be ready by then, and even he is iffy.

John Buck:  Assuming he’s healthy, the job belongs to Travis d’Arnaud. Buck is a stopgap already making too much money by Mets’ standards. It is conceivable Buck could be supplanted by d’Arnaud by the second half.

Ike Davis: The Mets already avoided arbitration with him and if Davis hits another 30 homers, they should consider going long term with him. You build teams around 30-homer sluggers.

Daniel Murphy: Somehow, I can’t see Murphy still here. I see him being dealt to the American League where he can play as a DH. By 2015, the Mets will have added a second baseman, perhaps Wilmer Flores.

Ruben Tejada: The Mets have several shortstop prospects, but will they be ready by 2015?  They like Gavin Cecchini, but wonder if he’ll hit enough. Tejada is establishing himself offensively and if he keeps it up, he’ll stay around.

David Wright: His contract ensures he’ll be around, but like Santana will it be one they regret? Wright hasn’t taken advantage of the shortened fences at Citi Field and the Mets wonder if he’ll hit with consistent 30-homer power.

Lucas Duda: He’s a work in progress with time to develop. Perhaps it will happen for him as a left fielder. Duda is better as a first baseman, but what will they do with Davis? Duda is a guy I can see them dealing in the future.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis: He made a good first impression, but struggled with the breaking ball and ended the season injured in the minor leagues. If he becomes the fulltime center fielder, he could still be here. Working in his favor is he comes cheaply. But, if the Mets start spending in a few years they will go for more power in the outfield.

Mike Baxter:  He’s a role player now, and a projected starter because the Mets aren’t spending any money. No way he’ll keep that job in three years.

Of the 16 names (including the position of bullpen) there are only seven I can say with confidence will be around in 2015. So, assuming if the projections of 2015 are true, that makes 19 spots to be filled.

That’s a lot of work to do.

Jan 05

Mets Who Could Be On The Block In July

It’s not even spring training, so what better time to fast forward to July and project what Mets could be dealt at the deadline?

JOHAN SANTANA: Assuming he’s healthy and producing, and the Mets not in the playoff hunt, who can’t see the Mets trying to get out from whatever they can of what is left of his contract? If Santana is on his game, a contender should be interesting.

CHRIS YOUNG: Should the Mets sign him as their fifth starter and the season bogs down, if he shows anything in the first half, some contender is sure to be willing to give up a middle prospect for a veteran who’ll make a half-dozen starts. If the Mets aren’t going anywhere, what’s the point of keeping Young around?

FRANK FRANCISCO: Let’s face it, the Mets aren’t bringing him back for 2014. So, deal him for a prospect and give the closer job to Bobby Parnell. Parnell is too young and has too much upside to deal him how. If the Mets aren’t doing anything this year, I’d be game for trading Francisco now and seeing what Parnell can do.

DANIEL MURPHY: If there’s an AL team that needs a DH or a bat off the bench, then Murphy could be ideal.

It is easy to see why Jon Niese or Ike Davis would be attractive – price and production – but those reasons are why the Mets would want to keep them. David Wright isn’t going anywhere, and players such as Lucas Duda and Kirk Nieuwenhuis haven’t built enough of a resume.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov 27

Mets Make Wright An Offer He Can Refuse

Multiple news agencies report the Mets finally have an offer on the table for David Wright, one that will likely be rejected. The numbers are $100 million over six years, and that’s on top of the $16 million option the team already picked up for 2013.

Contemporaries Evan Longoria of Tampa Bay and Ryan Zimmerman of Washington have signed $100-million contracts. Based on that, the Mets believe they are making a fair-market deal.

CEO Jeff Wilpon said the preference is to have both Wright and R.A. Dickey play out next season and become free agents rather than trade them. The thinking is the compensatory draft picks would be more valuable than a handful of mid-level prospects and major league caliber reserves. Let’s face it, the Mets certainly won’t get players comparable to Wright.

On a related note, the Mets want to avoid the potential public relations disaster of having Wright and Dickey leave, only to come back as All-Stars with another team at the 2013 All-Star Game at Citi Field.

Such an occurrence would be far more damaging public-relations wise than letting Jose Reyes go last winter without an offer.

Wright’s agents are expected to reject the offer, as most first offers are. This will be Wright’s last chance for a big payday because he’ll be 36 or 37 by the time the new contract expires.

Ideally, Wright wants a contract long on years, similar to the one the Rays gave Longoria. However, Wright’s numbers haven’t been what they were earlier in his career and the last four seasons have included a variety of injuries. That would create some question from the Mets about his durability, although he played a full season in 2012 (156 games).

The average yearly salary would be $16.6 million, which represents a slight raise from the $16 million he’ll get this season. That certainly won’t fly with Wright’s agents.

Nov 26

Bar Set For David Wright Negotiations

Whatever you hear about what David Wright might be asking or the Mets might be offering, just understand the bar has been set by his contemporaries Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman, Both are close to Wright in terms of age and production. Just not salary.

The Tampa Bay Rays, long known as a team with low payroll agreed to a contract extension over the weekend with Longoria for $100 million over ten years. The deal includes the same terms of his current contract through 2016, then adds an additional ten years. There is an option for 2013.

LONGORIA: Sets the bar for Wright (AP)

Who knows if the Rays will be in Tampa by then, but wherever they go, Longoria will be with them.

Then there is Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals, who, after moving into their new park have become big spenders. Zimmerman, who is a long-time friend of Wright’s, signed an extension before spring training last year for $100 million over six years, including the final two years of his current deal plus four more seasons.

Arguments can be made both are better recently than Wright, who after two down seasons bounced back in 2012.

Longoria is the face of the Rays as Wright is to the Mets, but has better power numbers. He is 27 and Wright will be 30 five days before Christmas. Zimmerman is 28.

Remembering Wright is roughly three years older than Longoria and a year older than Zimmerman, he has 204 career homers with an average of 26 a season. Longoria has 130 with an average of 33. If he maintains his current pace, by the time he reaches Wright’s age, he could have 230 career homers.

Zimmerman has 153 career homers, averaging 25 a season.

The Mets maintain re-signing Wright is their priority, but seem close vested as to what they are willing to spend or how long a deal they might give. A ten-year deal like Longoria’s puts Wright close to 40 at the end, and likely well into the downside of his career, much like Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees.

The last four years have been below Wright’s standards and include trips to the disabled list for a variety of injuries, all sustained by playing hard. That includes lost time from the Matt Cain beaning, which can’t be termed an “age related” injury.

All that will be considered in the Mets’ offer.

Statistically, the three are fairly even with Longoria having the highest upside. Given that, I don’t see how the Mets could justify anything less than $100 million and six years, although recently I suggested they go $100 million over five years.

The years might vary, but $100 million appears to be the ceiling. Do you see the Mets setting the bar higher?

I didn’t think so.

Longoria’s contract will be argued as the bar for third basemen. It shouldn’t vary by much. The only real question is: Do the Mets want to spend the money?

 

Nov 21

Wilpon Lays Out Scenarios For Wright And Dickey

At least they are talking.

Mets CEO Jeff Wilpon said there’s dialogue between the team and David Wright and R.A. Dickey, then added he’s optimistic about keeping them.

WILPON: Facing a future without Wright and Dickey.

What else is he going to say? “No, I think they’ll both leave.’’ Yeah, that will sell a lot of tickets.

You have to be skeptical whenever any side in a negotiation says something on the record, as much of the time it is posturing and sending a message to the other party. Parties will talk with the media when it is their best interests.

The most interesting thing said was having a preference to letting them play out their options and taking the draft picks rather than orchestrating a trade. That’s the route they chose with Jose Reyes after not even making an offer. This time, numbers have been exchanged.

Draft picks are cheaper than major league players. It also makes one wonder if they don’t believe they’ll get much in return, or would be able to keep the new players.

Reportedly, Wright is seeking a seven-year, $125-million package, while the Mets are offering much less.

How far is the divide? I don’t know, but presumably the Mets are offering roughly $100 million over five, which isn’t bad, but not a superstar deal.

I’m not crazy of deals longer than five years because of the injury factor, so I’d inclined to front load the contract.

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