Apr 01

Mets 2013 Over/Under Stats

Baseball loves its numbers, and for the gambler in all of us let’s look at some of the stats that could drive the 2013 Mets.

It will be fun to look back at the end of the season to see how many of these numbers were reached. (Note: A notation of even indicates that’s the number.)

Total wins: 70. My pick: Over.

Wins for Jon Niese: 15. My pick: Under.

Wins for Matt Harvey: 10. My pick: Over.

Wins for Dillon Gee: 9. My pick: Over.

Date Frank Francisco returns: May 15. My pick: Before.

Ike Davis homers: 35. My pick: Even.

Ike Davis strikeouts: 135: My pick: Over.

Daniel Murphy average: .295. My pick: Over.

Ruben Tejada average: .280. My pick: Under.

David Wright average: .300. My pick: Over.

David Wright homers: 25. My pick: Over.

David Wright strikeouts: 110. My pick: Over.

Lucas Duda homers: 24. My pick: Even.

Lucas Duda strikeouts: 150. My pick: Over.

Bobby Parnell saves: 28. My pick: Under.

Wins vs. Washington: 9. My pick: Under.

Wins vs. Atlanta: 9. My pick: Under.

Wins vs. Philadelphia: 9. My pick: Even,

Wins vs. Miami: 10. My pick: Over.

Wins vs. Yankees: 2. My pick: Even.

Date Mets will be 10 games behind leader. May 25. My pick: Before.

Mets wins at Citi Field: 52: My pick: Under.

Number of staff shutouts: 3. My pick: Even.

Number of times Mets shut out: 10. My pick: Over.

Team homers: 139: My pick: Under.

Staff blown saves: 15. My pick: Over.

Opponents homers: 150. My pick: Over.

Times DL is used: 19: My pick: Over.

First time DL is used: April 20. My pick: Before.

Longest losing streak: 7 games. My pick: Over.

Longest winning streak: 6 games. My pick: Even.

Date Travis d’Arnaud is brought up: June 1. My pick: Later.

Date Zack Wheeler is brought up: June 1. My pick: Before.

Number of Mets pitchers to start games: 11. My pick: Even.

Number of pinch-hit homers for Jordany Valdespin: 2. My pick: Under.

Times Terry Collins is ejected: 5. My pick: Under.

Wins for R.A. Dickey: 17. My pick: Under.

Homers for Jason Bay: 10. My pick: Under.

Date of Jordany Valdespin first tantrum: June 23. My pick: Before.

Number of Mets on Opening Day roster who won’t be on active roster Sept. 1: 4. My pick: Over.

Player acquisitions made prior to July 31 trade deadline: 3. My pick: Under.

Date Mets eliminated from contention: Sept. 15. My pick: Before.

Most games Mets are over .500: 4. My pick: Even.

Mar 31

Doing The Shuffle With Teufel

tim teufel

ESPN New York’s Mark Simon got a chance to talk to Mets third base coach Tim Teufel, and the two of them discussed the team’s infield defense. I highlighted what Teufel had to say about some of the Mets infielders, but you should check out the entire article here.

UZR & Defensive Metrics

“I embrace them. Any time we can use measurements to help us in our coaching, I’m willing to look at it. I felt like (last year’s stats were) very accurate. It had some credibility with me.

Ike Davis

“Ike’s going to be a lot better this year. He’s moving around great. He’s going to his glove side really well. Last year that was a weakness. I think (the ankle) affected his range and his quickness. It limited his ability to push off (and get to that ball). He has good hands, a soft glove. We’ve shortened his stroke on throwing to convert the 3-6-3 a little better. I think that will work.”

Daniel Murphy

“From June on, he was an average to above average second baseman. We want him to increase his range to his glove side. He’s very good on his backhand. And he played in the shift really well. I don’t think he’ll go through the growing pains he went through last year. He looks a lot more comfortable.”

Ruben Tejada

“Ruben is still working his way into game shape (for a shortstop). It’s a demanding position. Positioning is key with him because he’s not as gifted range wise as some other shortstops. We’re working on getting him to understand hitters, the mental part of the game, things like what guys do in RBI situations and with two strikes.”

David Wright

“I actually felt like his backhand was one of the best in the league last season. I think the numbers may be because we overplay some hitters, so we shade him off the line a little bit. We’ve worked with him in the past on his throwing technique, but I think he’s got that wired right now.” ”

David is a step ahead of the other guys, but remember he’s got eight years at third base and all our other (infielders) have two years. He makes pretty good adjustments.”

Teufel got a jolt of good news earlier this week when he learned that the Mets signed his son Sean to a minor league contract.

Unlike his father, Shawn Teufel does his job on a mound. The 26-year-old left-hander pitched at Class-A Lakeland (Detroit Tigers) last season, where he posted a 5-7 record and 6.64 ERA in 22 appearances both as a starter and reliever.

tuff stuff ryne sandberg

Mar 29

Why The Mets Opted Not To Insure Santana’s Contract

Johan santana Subway

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York, does a fine job of explaining why the Mets chose not to insure Johan Santana’s contract.

The Mets will be on the hook for the remaining $31 million owed to Johan Santana because they did not insure the contract.  Why?

As premiums have skyrocketed because of escalating salaries and past payouts — such as the bailout when Mo Vaughn was owed $17 million and could not play for the Mets in 2004 — the organization began more often “self-insuring” its larger contracts than seeking outside coverage. In essence, the Mets chose to create a rainy-day fund available so that the organization would not be crippled financially by the loss of a key player due to injury.

It saves potentially a $2 million insurance premium per year to protect a contract, although the amount annually paid to an insurance company naturally decreases as the years on the contract elapse — like you’d pay less to an insurance company on a car as the years go by and the vehicle is worth less.

Across baseball, outside insurance has “declined tremendously,” according to one baseball official.

Santana was self-insured by the Mets, whereas the Mets contracts for Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Tom Glavine and Mike Piazza’s were insured externally during their Mets days as well. David Wright’s last contract also was insured externally.

You can read the rest of the article including all the details here.

Mar 29

Days Dwindling For Mets; Questions Aren’t

The Mets have two games remaining in spring training, and if they don’t know what they have by now they never will.

They break camp today after playing St. Louis, then bus over to the bay side of the state to play the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday. Next will be Opening Day Monday afternoon against San Diego, while at the same time, in a display of scheduling genius by Major League Baseball, across town the Yankees will play the Red Sox.

COLLINS: No shortage of concerns.

COLLINS: No shortage of concerns.

The Mets have a myriad of remaining questions that won’t be answered in the next 18 innings. That’s not to say there aren’t a few things manager Terry Collins would like to see, most of them health related.

Daniel Murphy and David Wright have missed time with strained intercostal muscles. Murphy played yesterday against Washington in a major league game and Wright hopes to play today and tomorrow in major league games.

Both players say they are ready, but also said the gamble of playing in a major league game instead of a minor league game was worth taking because the speed and pace is closer to that of the regular season. If they are injured and have to go on the disabled list instead of being backdated deeper into spring training, then so be it.

Murphy goes into the season with a handful of at-bats, while Wright had the World Baseball Classic. Even so, neither will face the Padres in a groove.

Assuming Wright and Murphy are sound, the lone position to be determined is center field, with Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Jordany Valdespin the two contenders.

Nieuwenhuis entered spring training penciled in to start in center along side Lucas Duda in left and Mike Baxter in right, and was given first chance at the leadoff spot.

After a miserable start, Nieuwenhuis bruised his left knee and Valdespin emerged as a starting candidate in center – competing with Collin Cowgill – or at second with Murphy hurt.

As of yesterday, Collins said center field was up in the air, but wanted Nieuwenhuis to get at-bats, which presumably means the Mets want him to win the job.

Figuring seven or eight at-bats in the next games, that’s not enough for Nieuwenhuis to get in a groove, but it will have to do. Presumably, if Nieuwenhuis starts over Valdespin he would hit leadoff.

Pitching wise, Johan Santana wasn’t going to be an issue, but now the Mets can place him on the 60-day disabled list that would open up a spot on the 40-man roster. Call it Santana’s last contribution to the Mets, because with a re-tear of his anterior shoulder capsule, his career is likely over.

Jeremy Hefner will take his spot in the rotation, but took a ball off his right elbow Tuesday and Collins wants to give him a couple of innings to see how he feels. Hefner is scheduled the fourth game of the season, Friday against Miami at Citi Field.

The Mets still don’t know when Shaun Marcum can pitch, and could go with Aaron Laffey instead.

Even with Santana’s career-threatening injury, the Mets are adamant about not bringing up Zack Wheeler.


Mar 28

Daniel Murphy Passes Audition

Daniel Murphy passed the audition and said it was worth the risk.

Murphy, playing for the first time in a major league game this spring because of a strained right intercostal muscle, singled in three at-bats against Washington’s Gio Gonzalez, played five innings and declared himself ready for Opening Day.

MURPHY: Five innings at second; one hit.

MURPHY: Five innings at second; one hit.

Had he kept playing minor league games until Monday and was re-injured, his DL stint would be backdated deep into spring training. Should he get hurt now the clock would be running and he could miss the first two weeks of the season at least.

Considering how thin the Mets are, it didn’t seem worth the gamble, but it looks as if they dodged it, especially since he tagged up and advanced to second on a fly ball. Most guys don’t even think of such a play in the regular season, let alone the exhibition schedule.

“It was nice to slide,’’ Murphy told reporters. “It was nice to get the headfirst one out of the way.’’

Murphy understood the risks of playing in the major league game, but said he needed the speed of it to get ready for the season. Similarly, David Wright wants a major league game tomorrow or Saturday for the same reason.

“The speed of the game is obviously going to be a little quicker here,’’ Murphy said. “I actually was pleasantly surprised at how far along I was, and not even on the base hit. That was trash. … It was good to face (Gonzalez). It was really good to face a lefty with some velocity like that.’’

Pain wise, Murphy didn’t feel anything, so it was a positive day all along.

Figuring Murphy wakes up tomorrow without any discomfort, he’ll play second against St. Louis and Saturday against Baltimore at Sarasota, Fla.

With Murphy back at second the dilemma is what to do with Jordany Valdespin, who has had a good enough spring to make the 25-man roster.

When Murphy was down and Kirk Nieuwenhuis out with a bruised left knee, Valdespin seemed a lock to make the team. But, with Murphy back, reserve infielder Omar Quintanilla better defensively, and Nieuwenhuis again in contention in center field and needing at-bats, Valdespin could be back to the bench, if not the minors.

“We’ve got to decide who’s going to play center,’’ manager Terry Collins said. “Therefore, we’ve got to get Kirk some at-bats.’’

Nieuwenhuis is batting only .094. Unbelievably, if he and shortstop Ruben Tejada are Opening Day starters, the Mets could have two hitters with averages below .100 (Tejada is at .080).