Apr 01

Mets 2013 Over/Under Stats

Baseball loves its numbers, and for the gambler in all of us let’s look at some of the stats that could drive the 2013 Mets.

It will be fun to look back at the end of the season to see how many of these numbers were reached. (Note: A notation of even indicates that’s the number.)

Total wins: 70. My pick: Over.

Wins for Jon Niese: 15. My pick: Under.

Wins for Matt Harvey: 10. My pick: Over.

Wins for Dillon Gee: 9. My pick: Over.

Date Frank Francisco returns: May 15. My pick: Before.

Ike Davis homers: 35. My pick: Even.

Ike Davis strikeouts: 135: My pick: Over.

Daniel Murphy average: .295. My pick: Over.

Ruben Tejada average: .280. My pick: Under.

David Wright average: .300. My pick: Over.

David Wright homers: 25. My pick: Over.

David Wright strikeouts: 110. My pick: Over.

Lucas Duda homers: 24. My pick: Even.

Lucas Duda strikeouts: 150. My pick: Over.

Bobby Parnell saves: 28. My pick: Under.

Wins vs. Washington: 9. My pick: Under.

Wins vs. Atlanta: 9. My pick: Under.

Wins vs. Philadelphia: 9. My pick: Even,

Wins vs. Miami: 10. My pick: Over.

Wins vs. Yankees: 2. My pick: Even.

Date Mets will be 10 games behind leader. May 25. My pick: Before.

Mets wins at Citi Field: 52: My pick: Under.

Number of staff shutouts: 3. My pick: Even.

Number of times Mets shut out: 10. My pick: Over.

Team homers: 139: My pick: Under.

Staff blown saves: 15. My pick: Over.

Opponents homers: 150. My pick: Over.

Times DL is used: 19: My pick: Over.

First time DL is used: April 20. My pick: Before.

Longest losing streak: 7 games. My pick: Over.

Longest winning streak: 6 games. My pick: Even.

Date Travis d’Arnaud is brought up: June 1. My pick: Later.

Date Zack Wheeler is brought up: June 1. My pick: Before.

Number of Mets pitchers to start games: 11. My pick: Even.

Number of pinch-hit homers for Jordany Valdespin: 2. My pick: Under.

Times Terry Collins is ejected: 5. My pick: Under.

Wins for R.A. Dickey: 17. My pick: Under.

Homers for Jason Bay: 10. My pick: Under.

Date of Jordany Valdespin first tantrum: June 23. My pick: Before.

Number of Mets on Opening Day roster who won’t be on active roster Sept. 1: 4. My pick: Over.

Player acquisitions made prior to July 31 trade deadline: 3. My pick: Under.

Date Mets eliminated from contention: Sept. 15. My pick: Before.

Most games Mets are over .500: 4. My pick: Even.

Mar 31

Doing The Shuffle With Teufel

tim teufel

ESPN New York’s Mark Simon got a chance to talk to Mets third base coach Tim Teufel, and the two of them discussed the team’s infield defense. I highlighted what Teufel had to say about some of the Mets infielders, but you should check out the entire article here.

UZR & Defensive Metrics

“I embrace them. Any time we can use measurements to help us in our coaching, I’m willing to look at it. I felt like (last year’s stats were) very accurate. It had some credibility with me.

Ike Davis

“Ike’s going to be a lot better this year. He’s moving around great. He’s going to his glove side really well. Last year that was a weakness. I think (the ankle) affected his range and his quickness. It limited his ability to push off (and get to that ball). He has good hands, a soft glove. We’ve shortened his stroke on throwing to convert the 3-6-3 a little better. I think that will work.”

Daniel Murphy

“From June on, he was an average to above average second baseman. We want him to increase his range to his glove side. He’s very good on his backhand. And he played in the shift really well. I don’t think he’ll go through the growing pains he went through last year. He looks a lot more comfortable.”

Ruben Tejada

“Ruben is still working his way into game shape (for a shortstop). It’s a demanding position. Positioning is key with him because he’s not as gifted range wise as some other shortstops. We’re working on getting him to understand hitters, the mental part of the game, things like what guys do in RBI situations and with two strikes.”

David Wright

“I actually felt like his backhand was one of the best in the league last season. I think the numbers may be because we overplay some hitters, so we shade him off the line a little bit. We’ve worked with him in the past on his throwing technique, but I think he’s got that wired right now.” ”

David is a step ahead of the other guys, but remember he’s got eight years at third base and all our other (infielders) have two years. He makes pretty good adjustments.”

Teufel got a jolt of good news earlier this week when he learned that the Mets signed his son Sean to a minor league contract.

Unlike his father, Shawn Teufel does his job on a mound. The 26-year-old left-hander pitched at Class-A Lakeland (Detroit Tigers) last season, where he posted a 5-7 record and 6.64 ERA in 22 appearances both as a starter and reliever.

tuff stuff ryne sandberg

Mar 30

Mets’ Spring Training Booms And Busts

It is the same in every spring training camp with winners and losers. Booms and busts. With camp ending today, the Mets had their share of both.

THE WINNERS

Jon Niese: With Johan Santana a question going in, Niese entered camp No. 1 in the rotation and pitched deserving of that title. Not surprisingly, he was named Opening Day starter. With Santana gone for the year, he’s the de facto ace, at least until Matt Harvey takes over.

NIESE: A good spring.

NIESE: A good spring.

Matt Harvey: He took some lumps, but was far more good than bad. Most importantly, he didn’t show any signs of being overwhelmed. With Shaun Marcum hurting, Harvey is now No. 2.

Zack Wheeler: He strained an oblique muscle, but when he pitched he showed a glimpse of things to come. Wheeler was never going to make the Opening Day roster, but should be in Flushing soon enough.

Jeremy Hefner: Reported as a contender for the Triple-A rotation, but with Santana’s injury is now scheduled to be the No. 4 starter.

Jordany Valdespin: Here’s a guy who wasn’t in the Mets’ plans, but took advantage of injuries to Daniel Murphy and Kirk Nieuwenhuis to earn a spot on the roster. That is, unless something dramatic happens today.

Marlon Byrd: He was a spring training pick-up who not only won a spot on the roster, but in the Opening Day lineup.

Travis d’Arnaud: He was always going to open the season in the minors, but stayed healthy and opened a lot of eyes. He’ll be up before the All-Star break. The pitchers like throwing to him.

Lucas Duda: Surprised, aren’t you? Duda had a miserable start with an extraordinary number of strikeouts, but finished strong to give him confidence going into the season.

LOSERS

Johan Santana: It was a rocky spring for Santana, who responded in anger at criticism from GM Sandy Alderson about not being in shape by throwing off the mound ahead of schedule. He never got on the mound again and it is possible he never will.

Shaun Marcum: He didn’t endear himself to the Mets by showing up to camp in poor shape and could open the season on the disabled list.

Frank Francisco: He has not responded from elbow surgery and will be on the disabled list. Francisco might not get his closer role back if Bobby Parnell doesn’t spit the bit.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis: He was penciled in as the leadoff hitter in center fielder, but missed most of camp with a bruised knee. Amazingly, because of the Mets’ dismal situation in the outfield, he still has a chance despite hitting less than .100.

Dillon Gee: He came to camp a health question, and while he says there are no complications from surgery to repair an artery in his shoulder, he had several rough starts. He had a good one toward the end, but wasn’t consistent, especially with his change-up.

Ruben Tejada: He hit better than expected last season, and didn’t hit at all this spring. In most camps, hitting less than .100 would be a ticket to the minors, but the Mets have little alternatives.

Mar 28

Daniel Murphy Passes Audition

Daniel Murphy passed the audition and said it was worth the risk.

Murphy, playing for the first time in a major league game this spring because of a strained right intercostal muscle, singled in three at-bats against Washington’s Gio Gonzalez, played five innings and declared himself ready for Opening Day.

MURPHY: Five innings at second; one hit.

MURPHY: Five innings at second; one hit.

Had he kept playing minor league games until Monday and was re-injured, his DL stint would be backdated deep into spring training. Should he get hurt now the clock would be running and he could miss the first two weeks of the season at least.

Considering how thin the Mets are, it didn’t seem worth the gamble, but it looks as if they dodged it, especially since he tagged up and advanced to second on a fly ball. Most guys don’t even think of such a play in the regular season, let alone the exhibition schedule.

“It was nice to slide,’’ Murphy told reporters. “It was nice to get the headfirst one out of the way.’’

Murphy understood the risks of playing in the major league game, but said he needed the speed of it to get ready for the season. Similarly, David Wright wants a major league game tomorrow or Saturday for the same reason.

“The speed of the game is obviously going to be a little quicker here,’’ Murphy said. “I actually was pleasantly surprised at how far along I was, and not even on the base hit. That was trash. … It was good to face (Gonzalez). It was really good to face a lefty with some velocity like that.’’

Pain wise, Murphy didn’t feel anything, so it was a positive day all along.

Figuring Murphy wakes up tomorrow without any discomfort, he’ll play second against St. Louis and Saturday against Baltimore at Sarasota, Fla.

With Murphy back at second the dilemma is what to do with Jordany Valdespin, who has had a good enough spring to make the 25-man roster.

When Murphy was down and Kirk Nieuwenhuis out with a bruised left knee, Valdespin seemed a lock to make the team. But, with Murphy back, reserve infielder Omar Quintanilla better defensively, and Nieuwenhuis again in contention in center field and needing at-bats, Valdespin could be back to the bench, if not the minors.

“We’ve got to decide who’s going to play center,’’ manager Terry Collins said. “Therefore, we’ve got to get Kirk some at-bats.’’

Nieuwenhuis is batting only .094. Unbelievably, if he and shortstop Ruben Tejada are Opening Day starters, the Mets could have two hitters with averages below .100 (Tejada is at .080).

Mar 27

Opening Day Prospects Improve For Wright And Murphy

After repeatedly expressing doubt recently David Wright and Daniel Murphy will in the Opening Day lineup, the Mets changed course today and indicated otherwise.

Murphy, speaking on WFAN, said he expects to play. Manager Terry Collins said Murphy could play in a major league exhibition game tomorrow, which represents a huge mistake if he were injured and had to go on the disabled list.

WRIGHT: News getting better.

WRIGHT: News getting better.

If went on the DL now, he would miss five or six games because the assignment would be backdated into spring training; if he goes on the DL after playing in a major league game he would miss a minimum of two weeks.

The same applies to Wright, who will play in a minor league game tomorrow. Obviously, the Mets want to have some good news going into Monday’s Opening Day game against San Diego at Citi Field, but this seems pushing too much.

While they could still make it without playing in major league exhibition games now, this is simply not a risk worth taking.

SANTANA DL UPDATE: Johan Santana will be on the disabled list to start the season, but despite the possibility of missing up to two months, he will not go on the 60-day disabled list.

When Santana goes on the disabled list it will be retroactive into spring training and he would miss a week. Although it is expected he will be out longer, going on the 60-day disabled list means exactly what it says and he wouldn’t be available until June.

It makes no sense to guarantee him being out two months if that isn’t certain.

Placing Santana on the 60-day disabled list would open up a spot on the 40-man roster, which will be needed to accommodate LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Atchison, Marlon Byrd, Aaron Laffey and Omar Quintanilla.

However, the Mets will be listening to trade proposals for some of their minor leaguers. They might also re-assign several players to make room.

HEFNER UPDATE: Jeremy Hefner was struck on his elbow yesterday, but said he hopes to make his start in the rotation.

It hasn’t been decided if Hefner, penciled in as the fifth starter with Santana down, will start the fifth game of the season, or if the Mets will go twice with Jon Niese before going to Hefner.

Laffey could be brought up if Shaun Marcum, who has a pinched nerve in his neck, isn’t available to start the second game of the season.

FELICIANO ACCEPTS ASSIGNMENT: Calling the Mets “home,’’ lefty reliever Pedro Feliciano accepted a minor league assignment over free agency.

His reasoning is three-fold: 1) there’s a familiarity between Feliciano and the Mets, 2) there’s a greater probability of getting back to the majors with the Mets, and 3) a minor-league salary is better than nothing.