Oct 05

Mets gambling on dynamic pricing.

Desperate times call for desperate measures and that’s what the Mets are doing with their 2012 ticket plans.

Attendance was down for a third straight season in 2011, the fifth straight year they didn’t reach the playoffs.

With the team in a financially precarious situation, they have no alternative is this stressful economy but to lower costs of season tickets and single-game tickets.

 

The majority of Season Ticket Holders will pay less for their seats in 2012:

• 80% of seats will have a reduction of approximately 5% or greater

• 57% of seats will have a reduction of 10% or greater

• 35% will have a cut of 20% or more

• 18% will have a drop of 30% or more

• More than 15,000 seats will cost less than $25 per game.

The Mets are also offering incentives to those who renew by Nov. 7, which will probably be well before a decision is reached on Jose Reyes. Some of those incentives include price reductions in other seating categories and allow them to upgrade at no cost.

For the individual and not the cooperated entity, the team will introduce a limited number of full-season tickets at $12 a game.

For the economists in the bunch, the Mets will also introduce single-game tickets that will adjust in cost. If the Phillies are in and the demand is high, the price will drop. If it is the Nationals and both teams are out of it in September, the cost will dropt.

To protect its full-season ticket holders, the price would not drop below the full-season rates.

With attendance dropping and not wanting to compete with the secondary market, this his think-out-side-the-box for a franchise in need of a spark.

 

Oct 04

Quit the charade and say good-bye to Reyes.

If the Mets are to become the team hoped for them, general manager Sandy Alderson has some tough decisions to make in the coming months and years, and it begins with Jose Reyes.

REYES: Let him slide on out of here.

And, that decision is to say good-bye to Reyes now and quit the charade.

If history is an indicator this process will get drawn out by Reyes and his agents to drive up the bidding price the Mets already know they won’t meet.

The Mets know what their price is – Alderson calls it “our choking point,’’ – and it is no where the money offered Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, players who wilted this summer under the weight of their wallets.

Unless they are counting on a hometown discount from Reyes – which won’t happen – the Mets already know their shortstop is gone. For public relations purposes Alderson won’t say so, at least not before the Mets’ exclusive negotiating window opens five days after the World Series.

But, we know it is true and Alderson is posturing. We know the Mets will offer a credible offer in comparison to Reyes’ past performance, injury history and prospect he’ll break down long before his contract expires.

We also know Reyes is in it for the money and about himself – his self-serving act of backing out of the batting race at .337 tells you what you need to know – and he will jump at somebody else’s through-the-roof offer.

San Francisco, Boston and Philadelphia (assuming Jimmy Rollins leaves) will be in need of a shortstop and have the money. San Francisco and Boston, particularly, are desperate to make splashes after their disappointing seasons.

The Mets won’t compete financially with them, and can’t compete with them as far as immediate postseason prospects are concerned.

The way Reyes left the season finale was reminiscent of how LeBron James stripped off his Cleveland Cavaliers’ jersey before getting into the locker room. James was gone and the free-agent process was for show. It’s the same with Reyes and the Mets should make a take-it-or-leave-it proposal with a deadline and move on.

They don’t need to dance with Reyes; don’t need to let him hold all the cards.

Reyes can be a dynamic player when he wants to be, which he was at times during his walk year. No surprise there, is it?

Even so, Reyes missed 36 games with two stints on the disabled list. He hasn’t played a full season in the last three. In nine seasons, he’s played in at least 150 games just four times.

Reyes is a speed player, yet hasn’t stolen 50 bases in three years. He barely made an attempt when he came off the DL, and that was to stay healthy for the market. His career on-base percentage is .341, mediocre at best for a leadoff hitter with his projected production. He still strikes out more than he should, walks less than the prolific leadoff hitters, gives away too many at-bats and has lapses in the field and on the bases.

Reyes has always been more about potential than production, and you have to wonder if this year was all about the contract and he’ll regress again after he gets what he wants. Based on his history, it isn’t hard to project he’ll break down during this next contract, whether it be seven, six or five years, all which have been speculated and are all too excessive.

He should get no more than $85 million over four years, which will be denied. The Mets already have $55 million in salary commitments in 2012 to Johan Santana, David Wright and Jason Bay. Add $20 million for Reyes and you have $75 million of the Mets’ projected budget of $110 million tied into four players.

Never mind winning, you can’t compete with such an unbalanced payroll.

For all those Reyes apologists out there that say the Mets will be nothing without him, ask yourself where they are now. What have the Mets won with Reyes?

The Mets are five years removed from their last playoff appearance. They are a sub-.500 team over the last three seasons and have been below .500 in five of Reyes’ nine years with the team. Sure, he’s been injured much of those five years, but that’s not an argument for him as much as it is one that he’ll break down again.

Alderson does have some tough decisions to make, but come to think of it, keeping Reyes isn’t one of them.

It is time to say good-bye. Time to quit fooling around and start rebuilding this team for good.

Oct 03

Immediate Mets’ issues

There’s a sentiment the Mets over achieved this year, but that is more a case of lessened expectations. While their desired off-season budget will preclude much activity toward improvement, that doesn’t mean there aren’t issues needing to be addressed:

DECIDE ON JOSE REYES: Actually, they already have, but aren’t ready to reveal the numbers. For public relations purposes, the Mets don’t want to appear to be pushing Reyes out the door, but it is clear he is the first domino and every thing they do revolves around him. What the Mets can’t afford to do is get strung out dealing with Reyes ultimately to have him go elsewhere and have their other options get snapped up. From the direction they take on Reyes you’ll ascertain where the Mets are immediately headed. Should they determine they can live without Reyes – or need to live without him – they will be saying there’s considerably more rebuilding to be done. Bringing him back says they believe they are ready to compete, but it makes no sense to do so if they aren’t willing to spend in other areas.

THE COACHING STAFF: With manager Terry Collins’ contract extended, there’s the matter of his staff. Once again, pitching coach Dan Warthen’s future is suspect. Last year, Mike Pelfrey lobbied hard to retain Warthen, but considering his anemic performance, he won’t carry much weight this time around.

ADD TO THE ROTATION: Pelfrey regressed and surprise Dillon Gee was the only starter with a record over .500; four of the five had ERA’s of 4.40 or higher; and the staff had a composite 1.378 WHIP.  Jonathan Niese and Johan Santana have injury issues, and since there are no assurances, the Mets have little alternative but to bring back Pelfrey and Chris Capuano. There are some good names on the free agent market, notably C.J. Wilson, Rich Harden and Mark Buehrle, but they aren’t going to spend much, especially if they bring back Reyes. The Mets will likely fish from the pool where guys like Joel Pineiro, Jason Marquis and Freddy Garcia swim.

FIX THE BULLPEN: The Mets used 16 arms this summer and enter the offseason with a zero reliability factor in the pen. They’d like to see Bobby Parnell win the closer job, but he allowed 89 base runners in 59.1 innings pitched. That he strikes out over one batter an inning means he has the stuff, but his command of it is erratic.

ANGEL PAGAN: Pagan took a step back, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Mets don’t tender him a contract.  There are decent stopgap options in the outfield, such as Rick Ankiel, Nate McLouth and Ryan Ludwick, but again, I don’t see the Mets going in that direction. It would be good if they could plug in Fernando Martinez, but his injury history makes him unreliable.

SECOND BASE: Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips is the best available, but wants a lot and the Mets won’t  go there, especially if they bring back Reyes, because what would they do with Ruben Tejada? If Reyes goes, they could go with Tejada and Justin Turner as their double play combination.

If you’re getting the impression most of the Mets off-season tinkering will come from within and be of the middle-tier cost variety, you’re right. Sandy Alderson is already on record saying he sees a budget of around $110 million, which is $30 million less than this summer.

Figure with much of that $30 million differential was in the person of Oliver Perez, Carlos Beltran and Luis Castillo, then it isn’t hard to reason next summer won’t be much different than this one.


Oct 02

Bay not going anywhere.

In ticking off the Mets’ priorities for the offseason, getting rid of Jason Bay isn’t on the list, regardless of how much they’d like to shed the balance of his $66 million contract.

BAY: He's staying.

It’s amusing to hear those who said the Mets should trade, or even release the high-priced and low-achieving left fielder.

After two non-productive seasons and $16 million due him each of the next two years – plus a $17 million option or a $3 million buyout – just who is lining up to trade for him?

And, considering how the Mets do business, you know they aren’t going to eat $35 million. Bay is here for the duration.

Whether it was trying to make a splash in the first year of Citi Field, or yielding to public opinion to add more power, the Mets clearly made the wrong decision with Bay.

And, it’s not second guessing either, because they knew Citi Field’s dimensions and their stated objective was to build with pitching, defense and speed. Bay has played better defense than expected, but he’s still not the player to take the Mets to the next level.

The Mets are now considering altering Citi Field’s dimensions to better accommodate Bay and David Wright. No doubt, their intent is to try to salvage something out of Bay’s contract because he isn’t going anywhere.

Much like it was with Oliver Perez, the Mets are saddled with a bad contract and hoping for the best. The only value Bay has to the Mets is the hope he pulls it together.

Not exactly a position of strength.

 

Sep 30

Don’t expect much this winter.

Sandy Alderson said not to expect the Mets to spend much for than $5 million last winter and he held true to his word, and still they paid out $147 million in salaries this summer. He just said the payroll will probably not be much more than $120 million next year, and that’s after taking Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo off the books and not picking up the option on Carlos Beltran.

Alderson said there’s money to re-sign Jose Reyes, but strongly suggested the Mets won’t be able to do much more than him, and this is a team with a multitude of holes, most of them pitching.

The free-agent market has several marquee names, but outside of Reyes, they won’t be big players, and current indications the Mets won’t bust a gut on their shortstop. They’ll make an offer that won’t be accepted, Reyes won’t give the Mets a hometeam discount and he’ll be gone.

There’s also a new Collective Bargaining Agreement to be negotiated, and don’t expect any big spending before then. There are a lot of pending issues and unique financial circumstances surrounding this team.

I’ve been following the Mets long enough to realize nothing with them ever gets done easily and this winter won’t be an exception.