Sep 14

The value of Beltran …..

BELTRAN; Hoping for big things in his walk year.

Carlos Beltran will make $18.5 million next season, a contract, that couple with back-to-back injury seasons, will make him impossible to deal. The Mets could try packaging him, but would undoubtedly be stuck with paying a high percentage of the remaining contract.

In addition, considering Beltran’s injury history it is unlikely he’ll command in return the talent that would equal his history when healthy.

The Mets will have a lot of money in contracts earmarked for 2011, but Beltran’s has the greatest chance of bringing a positive return.

He’s not moving well, and right field does remain a topic to be discussed, but the Mets’ real hope in getting something from Beltran is for him continue rehabbing his knees and coming back strong next season. The motivation of Beltran in his walk year could be the best thing for the Mets.

Sep 13

New Chat Room; Warthen edition.

Game #144 vs. Pirates

Mike Pelfrey, who turned his back to Jerry Manuel Saturday in a show of disrespect, has endorsed pitching coach Dan Warthen’s return next season. So too, has R.A. Dickey. It’s a nice gesture, but it is uncertain as to the weight it will carry.

Assuming Manuel is gone and a veteran manager is named to replace him, he would want to name his own pitching coach and staff. That the Mets’ have shown significant improvement – you can chalk that up to not having John Maine and Oliver Perez- is a positive reflection on Warthen to where he merits an interview.

However, Warthen’s best chance would be if the Mets hired young and inexperienced, say Wally Backman, who might have a staff assigned for him.

Either way, the rate of progress from 2009 to 2010 has been significant and he deserves an interview at least.

To access the New Chat Room. click on to the icon to your left.

Thanks, JD

Sep 13

Next year’s staff ….

The Mets began the season with questions concerning all five starters in their rotation. Despite a productive season with Johan Santana’s shoulder injury they will end it the same way. There are reasons to be optimistic, such as the emergence of Jon Niese, R. A. Dickey and progress made by Mike Pelfrey.

SANTANA: Can't depend on his return.

Those are also the same reasons to be cautious.

1) JOHAN SANTANA: There are all kinds of projections on Santana’s recovery, all of the them pointless until he has the surgery. However, three surgeries in three years since signing with the Mets is a red flag. His velocity was already in decline before the injury, and by all accounts this is not an easy injury to come back from. The Mets must assume Santana’s best days are behind him and have to shop for a front end starter. It would be nice to expect a full recovery, but the Mets have long since lived on Fantasy Island when it comes to injuries.

2) MIKE PELFREY: There was significant glimpses for reason to be optimistic, but also enough to be concerned. Pelfrey is barely a .500 career pitcher, and there were times this summer when he was horrible. His last start was something to build on, but haven’t we said that a lot about Pelfrey. Pelfrey has been good roughly half the time this season. He needs to up that to 75 to 80 percent. Right now he’s a No. 2 to an ace, maybe a No. 3, but I’d be wary entering the season with him as the No. 1.

3) R.A. DICKEY: His performance warrants going into spring training with a spot in the rotation. However, look how long it took for him to have a breakthrough season. How can we adequately predict for the man with the unpredictable pitch? The Mets can’t look at this year and say he will repeat. And, if he does duplicate this year, that’s only 10 wins so far, good for a No. 4 or No. 5. He’s been good, but he’s not an anchor.

4) JON NIESE: He developed this year, but it is only one season. Who is to say he won’t have a setback or growing pains like Pelfrey? I’m glad the Mets held on to him and there’s a bright promise ahead, but there were enough glitches to indicate he’s got much more to learn.

5) DILLON GEE: He was stellar in his debut, but there wasn’t Triple-A domination to project he’ll immediately step in to produce. He’ll get another look-see tonight, but we really don’t know enough about him.

6) HISANORI TAKAHASHI: We don’t even know if he’ll be around next year. The Mets like him in the bullpen but he wants to start. He’s also a free agent. The Mets are probably right about his role in that he was vulnerable the second time through the batting order.

7) PAT MISCH: Has had some good moments, but also a few times when he’s been roughed up. Right now, he’s no better than to compete for a No. 5 spot. Don’t forget, there’s a reason why he’s spent so much time in the organization.

8) OLIVER PEREZ: He’s on the team; he’s got to be mentioned. The Mets want him gone but won’t eat his contract. Until there’s a resolution to the stalemate, there’s the possibility of playing with a man short again next year. With Santana gone and the Mets monitoring the innings count for Niese, he should get a start or two, if for no other reason than informational purposes. He’ll pitch in Mexico during the winter, but will he find it there? Doubtful.

9) JOHN MAINE: Almost forgot about him. The Mets may not even tender him, but if they do what can they reasonably expect? He’s still damaged goods and it is anybody’s guess what he’ll be, or even if he’ll pitch again.

Sep 12

New Chat Room; time for second guessing.

What was written then is coming to pass, the back end of Johan Santana’s contract appears to be choking the Mets. It was widely written, by me and others, that six years is too long a deal for a pitcher who had already accumulated a lot of innings.

Santana’s velocity has been in decline, and now he faces shoulder surgery that ESPN is reporting could keep him out for up to two years. This is a tough surgery with a long and arduous rehab program. It won’t be easy for Santana and there are no guarantees on the back end.

That said, the Mets will likely come to regret the $77 million balance on the contract, but they knew going in that was a strong possibility for the final two years, OK, now it could be three.

The Mets overpaid because both the Red Sox and Yankees backed out, but the circumstances of the times must be realized. The Mets, having lost in 2006 and collapsed in 2007, were in dire need of starting pitching.

The Mets needed an ace and Santana came back to them, and Santana has pitched like the ace he was portrayed to be.

Where the Mets failed or miscalculated is not in signing Santana, but not giving him the adequate run support. Had Santana pitched for the Yankees instead of the Mets, with their superior run support and Mariano Rivera, he might have won a Cy Young or won 20 games.

Santana has more than carried his share of the load since coming here. Injuries are always a risk, but he has more than lived up to his end of the bargain.

To access the New Chat Room, click on to the Chat Room icon to the left. Enjoy Jon Niese as you channel surf to the NFL games.