Feb 12

Feb. 12.10: Trying to be positive.

I know, I know, some of you will think that’s impossible, or that you’ve stumbled on to a different blog. But, today, on the heels of Bill James’ prediction of the Mets’ rotation, I’ll be trying to come up with some reasons to think positive about Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and yes, even Oliver Perez.

PELFREY: A 2010 key.

PELFREY: A 2010 key.


The inspiration comes after reading where James predicted the following seasons for Pelfrey (9-12, 4.45 ERA), Perez (8-11, 4.73) and Maine (9-9, 3.86 ERA). If James is close on the three, I don’t have to tell you what kind of season the Mets will have.

PELFREY: Pelfrey, despite taking a step back, went 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA in 31 starts. Pelfrey is only 26, young enough to believe there’s room for growth. Pelfrey made strides in 2008 and showed several glimpses of that form last year. With 31 starts, he’s proven to be durable. There’s reason to be hopeful about him. It would be premature to bail on him now.

PEREZ: Perez was hurt last season and went 3-4 with a 6.82 ERA in 14 starts. Perez has always run hot-and-cold, but his inconsistency last season was created in large part to the World Baseball Classic in spring training. There’s none of that this year. Perez worked out this winter at the Athletes Performance Institute in Arizona, and all the reports have been positive. Perez did win 15 games in 2007, so it’s not like we haven’t seen an upside from him.

MAINE: Like Perez, Maine won 15 games in 2007, his last full healthy season. Coming off surgery, Maine was 7-6 with a 4.43 ERA in 15 starts. The health reports have been good so far on Maine, and if he duplicates last season, projected over a full season he’d win 14 or 15 games. Who wouldn’t take that now?

Yes, I know James’ predictions are possible, but for now try to envision all the issues coming up positive for the Mets. If it all breaks right, you never know.

Feb 11

Feb. 11.10: Mets’ catching is what it is.

Of all the positions the Mets needed help at – save pitching – they probably could have used a first rate catcher more than anything else.

They didn’t get Bengie Molina, but were wise not to cave on the three years. But when the smoke cleared, surely they could have matched the offer Molina signed for. Rod Barajas is still out there, but is he really an upgrade over Henry Blanco and Omir Santos? Probably not.

Perhaps more than any other position, catching was the thinnest in the free agent market this winter.

It looks like it will be a Blanco-Santos platoon, which is hardly inspiring. Then again, there was always bringing back Brian Schneider, he wrote sarcastically.

Feb 09

Feb. 9.10: What’s your confidence level in the Mets?

I’ve posted a new poll asking your confidence level on the team heading into spring training. Is it hot, with your thinking last year was a fluke because of the injuries and they’ll bounce back? Is it lukewarm, with you not having a handle yet on the team? Or, is it cold because they are bringing back the same rotation that went 70-92 last season?

Vote and post your feelings here. Thanks.

Feb 09

Feb. 9.10: Mets need a full Reyes.

I’ve been looking at the Mets position players with this thought: Whose season might be the most important for them to reach contending status. That is, of course, under the assumption the rotation pitches well.

REYES: Mets need his spark.

REYES: Mets need his spark.


My first thought was David Wright, but I’m inclined to give the benefit of doubt and believe last season was an aberration, that he’ll be closer to normal this year. Then I thought Daniel Murphy, as with Carlos Beltran out at the start that the Mets would need an infusion of power someplace. But, Murphy is what he is, and he’s not – at least in this stage of his career – a power hitter.

Then it became obvious: The keys to the Mets offense has always been Jose Reyes. When he’s running, stealing bases, legging out triples and beating out bunts, and going into the hole for the ball, that’s when the Mets are at their best.

Of all the position players, he’s the one who needs to be at his best if the Mets are to prove last year was an injury-riddled fluke. If Reyes is on his game, the Mets go from being a listless team to a dangerous one.

The reports so far have been positive on his rebab, but he’s not tested them under baseball conditions. When he does, we might gain a greater insight as to where this season will go.

Pitchers and catchers less than two weeks.

Feb 08

Feb. 8.10: Let’s not get carried away.

The Mets got some positive news when 21–year-old outfield prospect Fernando Martinez was named MVP of the Caribbean Series. They should, however, resist the temptation to say he’s ready because it was a 23-at-bat sampling in which he hit .348 with two home runs. The Mets have rushed prospects before and I don’t want to see them toy with Martinez’s confidence.

Assuming the best on Carlos Beltran, I’m sure center field will be safe with Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr., in the interim, which should be a couple of months. Martinez wouldn’t get regular at-bats and would only be sent down once Beltran is ready.

I’m still thinking the prudent decision would be for him to get regular playing time in Triple-A and then make an evaluation around the All-Star break whether he should be promoted for the second half.