Oddsmakers, And Numbers, Don’t Like Mets

Last year’s National League champions, San Francisco, won 88 games to qualify as a wild-card entry. For the Mets to win that many games, they must go 41-32, nine games over .500.

Oddsmakers have the Mets at 33-1 to win the World Series, this after being 25-1 on July 1. Evidently, that four-game winning streak entering the break carried little goodwill.

We shall see what the Mets are made of after the first three series of the second half – at St. Louis and Washington, and home to the Dodgers.

The Mets are stacking their rotation for the Washington series, with Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard. And, since Syndergaard goes tonight at St. Louis, it computes to the five-man rotation.

That means Harvey will get his way, for at least for the near future. You wanted it big boy, now just pitch.

“For us to stay in this race, we’ve got to beat Washington,’’ said Collins. “That is why we aligned the rotation the way we did.’’

Sure, the Washington games are important, but if the Mets lose in St. Louis but beat the Nationals, what have they gained?

The bottom line is all the games are important to the Mets, who will attempt to reach the postseason for the first time since 2006, but with an offense ranked 28th in scoring at 310 runs, which is roughly 3.5 a game.

With a 3.23 ERA, there is virtually no margin for error, and making it all the more difficult is there’s no imminent help on the horizon, whether from outside the organization; in the minor leagues; or from the return of the injured David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud.

The Mets’ primary competition for the wild-card at Pittsburgh, Chicago and San Francisco. They currently trail the Pirates and Cubs, but are one game up on the Giants. Also, all three teams are .500 or better on the road while the Mets have been dismal away from home. And, of course, the Giants have a championship pedigree.

GM Sandy Alderson has taken heat, and deservedly so, for not being aggressive in the trade market.

He did an admirable job cutting payroll and jettisoning the likes of Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and others, but somewhere in his contract his job description there needs to be a clause about putting a winning team on the field, not a cheap one.

14 thoughts on “Oddsmakers, And Numbers, Don’t Like Mets

  1. “Sure, the Washington games are important, but if the Mets lose in St. Louis but beat the Nationals, what have they gained?”

    The games against the Nationals have added value. Mathematically it makes perfect sense to stack your rotation against the team you’re chasing, when each win means just a little bit more. There’s really nothing to complain about here – this is the right call.

    Oddsmakers don’t like the Mets’ chances, nor should they. And in pre-season I pegged the Mets at 83 or 84 wins, a pace they’re ahead of for now but primarily thanks to the 11-game romp over the NL East. But if a bat is added to this lineup, odds can change.

    • I think the odds makers are taking into consideration that the other teams are more likely to make a deal. No one really thinks the Wilpon’s are a “win at any cost” type of owners. Every other team is ahead of the Mets in that regard. I think you’d have to go back to the old Montreal Expos to find an owner that was more focused on the bottom line. These rats are getting at least 6 mill back on Wright’s contract and the likelihood that they JUST spend that is very slim. The only way I see it is if the NY media gets bored and decides to make that a story. They’d prefer to focus on the important issues at hand though, where Harvey plays golf :-/

  2. If Sandy does not fix the offense in the next 10 days, Mets will be a .500 club 81-81, all done with pitiching, no “O” AND not much “D”.
    Sad….SAD, I SAY !!
    No other MLB team would continuously allow for these dynamo pitching efforts going to waste.
    The Nats could be getting some bats back in the 2nd half > Zimmerman, Werth, Rendon.
    What are the METS getting ??? Lipservice from Sandyman !!! Grow a pair SIR.

  3. “GM Sandy Alderson has taken heat, and deservedly so, for not being aggressive in the trade market”

    Did he make a trade last year? He might get a utility guy which would help, but we need to get some bats here. The only real bat is Travis. Don’t know when he will be back.

    The next reasonable option is Conforto, but he hasn’t played a year in AA and you wonder if he is ready. Unfortunately because the GM cannot spend good money on an OF who can hold his own we may have to roll the dice with him.

  4. I
    Get that Mooney keeps telling me I am wrong and that Grandy is actually ok. I can’t get over the fact that he only hits 240, even though he gets his share of walks and hots more hr’s than anyone else on the team.


    My issue is he really is not very good in the field.

    I do recognize he is our best player leading off and possibly the most consistent middle of the order guy we have which is not so much a tribute to him, rather an indictment of the terrible hitting talent we have on the team.

  5. Let’s see here. The great liar Sandy Liarson lies once again. The 6 man rotation was BS or else he would have promoted a guy to save the arms of his young guns. But Delcos instead of calling out the liar calls out Harvey for what the thousandth time or so. What horrid stuff. What’s your rag on him Del ps. Did he spit in your face?

    • Very witty!

      So if Alderson had come out and said “we’re JUST pitching Gee and Niese to build their trade value” and “as soon as another team gets desperate we’ll go back to the 5 man rotation.” what would have said? You’d have applauded his honesty? EVERYONE else would have said he’s a moron. Guess what? EVERY GM lies, they have to. If you’re playing cards and someone asks you if you have a good hand or a bd hand would you tell them? Would you be honest or a liar?

    • Nat: You’re getting nasty again. If you have been paying attention, which I doubt, you would know I have constantly been on Alderson. I ask you again, are you paying attention or do you have a problem with reading comprehension?-JD


  7. Did you forget who the owners are? CHEAP is first, winning is a distant second. They are NOT taking on a big contract, at least I don’t see that happening.Those are the type of deals you normally see at the deadline. One team is shedding salary of an older player while another team is willing to give up a few prospects and take on some money for a shot at the playoffs. Cross those deals off the list. You’re not getting a good young player without giving up a very good young player. EVERYONE wants the Mets pitching but they’re not willing to give it up (rightly so). So who’s left if they want a player that’s going to be under team control for a while? Frazier? Not happening. Gomez? Who are they giving in that deal? You’re not getting it done by sending junk over to Milwaukee. It’s going to be a deal that they feel, like a package including Plawecki, Confort or a player like Matz. I don’t see the Mets doing that kind of deal because they’d have Gomez for one more year after this one. This is not a team that I’d go all in on if I was GM. This is a team that’s still building, like the Nationals a few years ago.