Why Not Go With Rafael Montero Now?

I understand the New York Mets’ position on wanting to delay Rafael Montero’s promotion to the major leagues so they can delay the arbitration process by a year.

But, why?

MONTERO: Why not?

MONTERO: Why not?

We’re talking up to six years down the road and who knows what the Mets’ financial landscape will be by then? Who knows what will become of Montero over the next half decade. Maybe he gets traded. Maybe he blows out his arm. Maybe he becomes a big star and the Mets sign him long term.

If Montero has a solid spring training, they shouldn’t they bring him up right away. Why delay if he’s ready?

If Montero is getting batters out during spring training, then let’s see what he can do during the regular season. All indications are he has a plus-fastball and other quality pitches, so let’s see if he can learn how to pitch on the big stage. The Mets should not be thinking of delaying paying him by a year, but by giving him a chance to develop his mental toughness a year earlier.

Pitching in the major leagues – even if it means taking his lumps – would be more beneficial to Montero’s development than breezing in Triple A for two-and-a-half months.

Remember, this is supposed to be a write-off year with Matt Harvey gone, so why not?

If Montero pitches to his expectations, he should give the Mets at least the nine victories Harvey gave them before his injury. And, if he doesn’t, then so what? He would learn from the experience.

Often you hear the argument teams don’t want to rush a player because they fear they’ll destroy his confidence. However, if a player’s confidence is so fragile that it would be ruined in a couple of months, then how mentally tough was he to begin with?

Actually, the Mets’ stance on bringing up Montero in June might hinder their chances of signing a middle-tier free agent, including a guy like Aaron Harang, because the perception is he’d lose his spot in the rotation in two months. If I’m Harang, that has to be part of my thinking on returning to the Mets.

However, if the Mets said everything was wide open, that could mean the difference. I say go with Montero and still sign veteran pitching. If Montero pans out, then they’d have a trip to trade at the deadline.

ON DECK: Here’s a possible answer to the Flores dilemma.

23 thoughts on “Why Not Go With Rafael Montero Now?

  1. If we were going for it, I could see him adding at start of season. Since we are a few years away, he does not want to lose a year of service to players.

      • With all of the ramifications the Mets have endured since Maddof, it’s clear to me why they went full on cheapskate-to-date. But, that date is reportedly in the rear view mirror, and this is the year, us fans, have been promised, by the front office, as becoming players, in the MLB scene. If so, then a good young starting pitcher, as fine tuned as Rafeal, being held back, for financial reasons in 2020— when the teams projected value will be in the neighborhood of 3 billion dollars—despite being ready for “the show” right now is infuriating.

      • I think they will would do that witha prospect that they do not project to be with them down the line and do not care if they start the clock on him. In this time and age, top prospects need to be held back. It’s not that we have not done it with other top prospects before Alderson. I do not remember off hand a top prospect starting season in a while. Strawberry did not, Gooden did.

        • Here’s my beef. The FO says now if with a, b, and c play as advertised the team could acctualy contend. What do you say generals? Sure lets run the estimated payroll in 2019 with Jeff first. Jeff, this team could be worth 3 billion in 2020, and we have a shot at contention in 2014 with a, b, and c, on the roster, but it’ll mean 10 million later, years down the road. Na, lets through a bum out there, screw the fans. The reason I get so mad is if we do not have money but blue chip commodity, then use it.

          Just saw Mets signed Chris Young. I think it’s a reclamation project that could pay off.

  2. I totally agree. Montero in April, Syndergaard in July. Sign an arm or two, trade Niese or Gee for a bat, get aggressive with the program.

    Syndergaard is also ready, IMO, but I can accept the logic behind not starting a season with two rookies in the rotation. Though, well, I don’t fully agree with it. Holding them both back makes no sense.

    Again, Michael Wacha would be in AA this year if the Mets had him.

    All of that said, Winter Meetings have not even started yet. Our worries are premature.

      • Wacha would be lucky if he were promoted out of rookie ball by now. Just kidding, great comment. Nailed it with AA.

        IMO, our biggest problem is this, and you addressed this in other words. The vast majority of our best pitchers are not conditioned to go much more than 150 IP. But, if they give us 150 strong, and we get creative with how we use Mejia/Montero/Noah, perfectly utilize Carlos Toress, then we got great pitching. Now, there(FO) suppose to be the genius’ here, and they got a ton of MLB ready talented young arms. Now, figure out how to use them on the big league statge. If Noah goes say 70 IP in AAA, dominates, and is brought up, he’s got 80 IP left, topps. The 70 IP in AAA are as wasted as Zacks(.650 win PCT, MLB) were last year. I am fuming right now. I can understand the Wilpons going cheap, but this MLB service time crap is killing me. Here’s a idea, lets waive the white flag, until next year, than waive another, till next year, than waive another till next year. LETS GO METS.

    • My understanding is Thor is not ready yet. It’s not like we will be playing for anything this year

      • Freakish raw ability, can reach back and dial 100, had a sub 2 ERA till his last regular season start. Batters looked metmerized. IMO, Rafael Montero is our best prospect and tomorrow I will explain. If it wasn’t for 2 starts Noah’s ERA would have been like 1.10, 4/1 bb-to-k, moe than 9 k per 9 294 IP, 15 HR’s allowed.

        Hypothetical: If this 21-year-old-triple-digit-flame-thrower just got out of his japanese contract and became a FA on the MLB market. How much money do you think he’d command? I’ll tell you this, it’d be close to Harrang + DiceK x 25.

        Chat tomorow, night

        • just the ERA would fall through the floor, the rest of his miLB stats are everything combined.

      • My game plan for Thor is simple. Use his best pitch and get ahead. Rear back and fire. Then elevate. He has to get ahead, if he does than plus pitch galore.

  3. Man, just wrote a nice comment, then got disconnected.

    Recap, Terrific article. I agreed with virtually everything to a sliding-babble-tee. I will take some time to prepare a clear coherent comment. It will be posted by tomorrow afternoon. I’m assuming the 9 win guesstimate, is just that of a good-rookie-prospect-projection and that you can imagine greatness from Raffy in 2014. No ifs ands or buts about it, Montero will be on a innings limit, so the ceiling cannot be that high, My projection is something like this if Raffy heads north with the team. 13-4, 2.65 ERA, 160 IP, 145K’s, 40-BB.

    IMO, Montero is our best prospect, so obviously your mention of Rafael as a trade chip bothered me a bit, but we are all entitled to our opinions, and I respect yours. Outside from that, the article was terrific, and I will due my best to match the above with my comment tomorrow. It’ll be posted by 2 PM. For now I will read and respond to comments and continue on to your next article. There’s just so much I want to say about Montero, but it’s as if my keyboard is connected to my toes right now, far from brain-to-fingertips. Fantastic job with all of your posts. This one provoked so much thought my brain broke down like a Tandy 2000 surfing the web in the year of our lord 2014. I just stuck the year of our lord in there for humor, I’m not a religious freak but do believe in god. On to replies to the above comments.

  4. Montero is ready now. No sense keeping him down. He needs to see the big bats and. to wait.

    Keeping him down to pinch pennies is stupid.

    You say you have $100m to spend and you are thinking of pennies?

    How about this. If he wins more people might show up so you get $$

    • Agree to agree. Just spent a couple hours on the below post. If you get to it, tell me what you think. I’m heading out for MacDonalds then bed. I’ll read and reply to every comment addresed to me, and ones I just feel like responding to in the morning, late morning. Good money day for me, now I’ll spend my first 5. Got a small day planned tommorow, 3 hours 50 bucks. TO me good money.

  5. My brain is wrenching, and despite writing this in other words the other day, i felt like starting from scratch. I plan on doing this around 10 times over the next 30 days to come up with a team, I’m convinced, that if I managed, with 3 great bench coaches, great pitching coach, approchable open minded GM, could win the whole kit and kaboodle, no problem at all.

    My Montero comment will come later. The biggest reason against trading Montero(in my next comment) is he’ll bring back a bust of a bat, and we lose a stud blue chip. Just buy a bat, let him bust, fine, we all know it’s a virtual certainty before his first presser is even scheduled, and it really bites that’s the case, but it’s not nearly as devastating as a busted bat, that cost us money, and Montero. No whammy, no whammy, no whammy, stop. Jason Bay, well at least he didn’t cost us Montero. Imagine if the next Bay does. OH. THE. PAIN.

    Throughout the NYM history we’ve busted on virtually every big bat import, so the heck with power in this Citi in 2014, were going to pitch the opposition to death, and win-it-all that way. And Rafeal Montero and Noah Syndeguard will be tantamount to our success.

    At the top of the rotation will be Dillon Gee, after a rough start to his 2013 campaign, Dillion settled in nicely, and pitched like an Ace. Up until the midway point, Dillon’s problem had been getting out of the 6th inning. But, in the second half of last year, Dillon harnessed late inning strength, and made strides towards becoming a durable pro. One game inparticular stands out, verse the braves. After getting out of a bases loaded jam, Gee’s body laungage said, “finally conquered that problem”, I’m an Ace now. And I agree. Not a Doc/Tom/Coney type, but an Ace nonetheless.

    Next Zack Wheeler, who had a well above average rookie campaign. Most would say he lived up to the hype. Zack’s problem, maintaining velocity deep into pitchcount. But Zack still won 65 percent of his decisions, god-willing the percentage rises just a few percent in 2014. Zack got a handful of official scoring decisions in his favor last year, and had a statistical pitfall thanks to a Citi sunny afternoon in RF, leading to 4 earned. A wash, the ERA and win PCT are reflective of how Zack pitched. Now, his arm is conditioned to go maybe 160 IP next year, and that is a problem, so we are going to have to go outside the box and go with a 13 man pitching staff. At 115-to-1 odds to win it all, going unconventional should be viewed as proactive, not a concern.

    In the 3 spot it will be Noah Synderguard, who can maybe go 140 innings. FIne, it is what is, so we’re forced to piggyback Control freak Carlos Toress on Noah starts. The 2 combined will pitch on this day, and this day only, and likely provide 8 or 9 innings, depending on if there’s a save situation. That’s 240+ IP from two pitchers in one slot.

    Next up our #4, John Niese. Now, both Neise and Gee have had some odd injuries to date, not arm related, and this hurts in regards that they are less conditioned than most pitchers, but helps too as they’re arms are fresher than pitchers of there age, experience, and ability. So, we take the good with the bad, here and live with it. John’s problem to date has been the big inning. When it rains, it pours, and sometimes in cats, dogs, and zebras. However in 2014 this will not be a problem, ya gotta believe here.

    The 5th spot will be manned by Montero, who’s conditined to go 150 big league innings, and because of a lack of durability will be piggybacked by Jenry Mejia. The 2 pitchers combined will likely pitch 8 or 9 innings, depending on whether or not there’s a save situation. So the 5 spot, will pitch 240 innings and if all goes as planned we get just about 1000 innings out of our starters and piggybackers, 7 total pitchers.

    Hate the idea? Here’s some major benifits. The bulk of our bullpen(which should be built to rock) will have 2.7 scheduled days off per week at minimum, as the days that Noah/Toress and Montero/Mejia are slotted, the vast majority of the bullpen, will be ever-so-lightly used. I broke up the duel combos in the rotation deliberately, to eliminate, to the best of my ability, bullpen arms taxes over consecutive days. So, far, the bullpen heading into 2014 is rock solid, and well rested. Mejia/Montero/Noah/Toress will have a ton of pressure removed as they know another starter will pick up where they left off, and cruise all the way to the 8 or 9th. Also, when September gets here and we’re in first place, Mejia/Montero/Noah/Toress will be far from taxed, comparitively speaking, and should be able to make a solid postseason push

    The Philosophy here is live and die with are combos. They will recieve little to no help from the pen except from the closer, and that’s only if neccessary. My estimation is a minimum of 2.7 scheduled days off, each week, for virtually everybody in the pen with the exception of my newest acquisition Brian Wilson. and as many as 3-to-4.5 days off a weak for most. This will keep are rock solid pen live, with there best stuff from April through October. I’m totally willing to supplement the 2 relievers we buy. Brian Wilson and M. Gonzolez for somebody of/or near there class.

    #1) Gee goes 6.1, and Wilson/Parnell/Black/German and LHP Edgin/Gonzolez can finish off those games.
    #2) Wheeler goes 5.2, and Wilson/Parnell/Black/German and LHP Edgin/Gonzolez can finish off those games.
    #3) Noah and Toress combined go 8 or 9 innings, and the freshest arm enter for a save situation. Primarily it will be Wilson. But Parnell and Gonzolez have closed and Black has been projected as a future closer, so Vic’s in the picture as well
    #4) Niese goes 6.1+ and Wilson/Parnell/Black/German and LHP Edgin/Gonzolez can finish off those games. Likely all but 1 will have at minimum 1 day off, thus fresh for the assignment
    #5 Montero and Mejia combined go 8 or 9 innings and have the freshest arm to finish if there is a save situation. Most likely Wilson, if not Parnell, if not Gonzolez, if not Black

    So we pitch people to death with 8 flamethrowers(mejia/Noah/Wheeler/Montero(plus FB)/Wilson/Parnel/Black/Edgin, hard throwing control guys(neise/Gee/Gonzolez) One absolutely superb control freak(Tores) and German(will need to perform to keep his role. I’m willing to go with Atchinson here if German fails to produce)

    As far as the combo’s go, this will provid a fierce competitive spirit amongst the 4 pitchers, and doing so in the least taxing/stressful manner possible. Maxing out in the 140 IP range

    That’s roughly 26 million dollars worth of arms. Johan Santana got 31.5 last year.

    With great young staring pitching, most of whom have the propenCiti to keep the ball in the yard, great defense will be a HUGE. Tejada/Tovar/and Furcal can battle it out at shortstop, Ike Davs will play 70 % at first, with a role set up for success, limiting him verse tough lefties and pitchers with nasty breakers, Ike’ll likely bring above average leather out to first. Gold glove at third. Someday I will debunk Murphys dWAR stats that are way out of wack, just take my word that he can do more than just hold his own out there. dArnaud impressed everybody defensively last year, and in a catcher, really, that’s all I want. We won with Grote, and had a second WS apperance with him. WE won with Carter, and had a WS apperance with Mike. This year we will get there with stout young pitching and solid defense. I want to keep dArnaud’s action limited as he’s had injurie battles(81 Gms). In the OF we purchase either Grandy or Cruz. If it’s Grandy we’ll have 3 CF’s in the OF, as den Dekker made my opening day lineup. As long as Grandy can play both LF and RF, I’d slot den Dekker in RF as the real estate is vast and his legs are fantastic. Lagares in CF, gold glove ability. Now, we will have a 4 man bench due to the 13 man staff, and guess what, we’ll just have to live with it.
    1)E. Young(IF/OF) or Andrew Brown (OF, power hitter),
    2)Flores(all 4 IF POS) If Furcal gets banged up then Tovar or Tejada(if he’s still opts)
    3) Recker (C) a ton of pop
    4)Raul Ibanez as LH pop of the bench(50 starts verse RH groundballers, DH 9 times or so, 50 PH)
    We get an inury we’ll have to bring up a kid, and we’re going to have to live with it

    FurcalLagares/Murphy/Granderson or Cruz/dArnaud/Davis/den Dekker.

    Now that is a cheap team that can compete(comparitively speaking, bottom 5 in payroll I’m guessing. Bottom 5 for sure if you supplement E. Young for Grandy and spend real dough in 2105)
    It showcases our young pitching talent in roles that allow them to thrive,
    The pitchers 1-13 combined are extremely talented, and the 13 of them can be had for 26 million. I think, I’ll check tommmorow
    The Pen rocks and will be fresh from 1-to-162 and beyond
    The Defense rocks
    We’ll live with the short bench
    The offense, will improve, if the wins start piling up, gut feeling, that’s baseball right?
    While competing with this team, there will a couple of one year contracts(Ibanez/Furcal/ Gonzolez) so there will be additional money to fill more defined holes, hopefully new 1 power bat already here, a far better idea of what pitchers we like(can be very misleading, rookie pitchres, but an indicator nonetheless)and Harvey to build with in 2015

    • As much as I like Dan he did not have a good year in the field.

      As discussed before I like your pitching rotation.

      We don’t hit enough to win and our defense is not good enough.

      But I agree pitching and defense wins.

      • Hey, i found somebody to agree with my 5 starters 2 relievers. I’d like to see each combo pitcher throw 130 IP. And when evaluating, not a great gage when talking about youth, cherry pick your fruit.

  6. The 2 typos out of many that need to be addressed is Wright will bat 4th, and Raul Ibanez will field, not hit, in the 50 some odd games whern our best groundball pitchers are on the mound, thus eliminating some of Raul’s defensive ineptitute.