If the New York Mets are to win this weekend, today is their best chance, with Matt Harvey starting. The sad thing, is that feeling comes with the statistical backdrop of a 13-12 record in his starts this season, including the Mets going 6-10 in his last 16 starts.
Harvey has a 2.67 ERA with a 119-to-17 strikeouts-to-walks ration in those 16 starts.
The Mets are counting Harvey’s innings, but in a match-up against Detroit’s Max Scherzer in a rematch of All-Star starters, you have to figure unless his pitch count is obscene, Terry Collins will keep sending him out there.
The Mets have given Harvey 95 runs of support in his 25 starts. By contrast, the Tigers have given Scherzer 151 runs in his 25 starts. Considering the Tigers are giving Scherzer 2.24 more runs in his starts, and the Mets have lost nine Harvey starts in which the margin of difference was two or fewer runs, we could be talking about 18 victories for their phenom.
It doesn’t work that way, but occasionally it is interesting to speculate about, especially if you’re Harvey’s agent.
NO SPOT FOR DUDA: Who knows, perhaps today’s game will be decided by Lucas Duca, who has been promoted from Triple-A Las Vegas at the expense of Mike Baxter.
Duda is hitting .308 at Triple over his last 12 starts, in which he exclusively played first base.
Davis has played better since coming up from Vegas, but not well enough to say all his issues are resolved. One of the Mets’ off-season decisions is whether to tender Davis. If they do not, he becomes a free-agent and opens a hole at first base.
Presumably, that could be filled by Duda.