Feb. 12.10: Trying to be positive.

I know, I know, some of you will think that’s impossible, or that you’ve stumbled on to a different blog. But, today, on the heels of Bill James’ prediction of the Mets’ rotation, I’ll be trying to come up with some reasons to think positive about Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and yes, even Oliver Perez.

PELFREY: A 2010 key.

PELFREY: A 2010 key.


The inspiration comes after reading where James predicted the following seasons for Pelfrey (9-12, 4.45 ERA), Perez (8-11, 4.73) and Maine (9-9, 3.86 ERA). If James is close on the three, I don’t have to tell you what kind of season the Mets will have.

PELFREY: Pelfrey, despite taking a step back, went 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA in 31 starts. Pelfrey is only 26, young enough to believe there’s room for growth. Pelfrey made strides in 2008 and showed several glimpses of that form last year. With 31 starts, he’s proven to be durable. There’s reason to be hopeful about him. It would be premature to bail on him now.

PEREZ: Perez was hurt last season and went 3-4 with a 6.82 ERA in 14 starts. Perez has always run hot-and-cold, but his inconsistency last season was created in large part to the World Baseball Classic in spring training. There’s none of that this year. Perez worked out this winter at the Athletes Performance Institute in Arizona, and all the reports have been positive. Perez did win 15 games in 2007, so it’s not like we haven’t seen an upside from him.

MAINE: Like Perez, Maine won 15 games in 2007, his last full healthy season. Coming off surgery, Maine was 7-6 with a 4.43 ERA in 15 starts. The health reports have been good so far on Maine, and if he duplicates last season, projected over a full season he’d win 14 or 15 games. Who wouldn’t take that now?

Yes, I know James’ predictions are possible, but for now try to envision all the issues coming up positive for the Mets. If it all breaks right, you never know.

17 thoughts on “Feb. 12.10: Trying to be positive.

  1. I think they’re more like projections based on the last few years and historically similar pitchers. I don’t think its James’ personal opinion. A 4.45 ERA from Pelfrey would be a significant improvement. (you can ignore the W-L predictions, those are just based on ERA and the Mets projected offensive output). A 4.73 ERA from Perez would be too. A 3.86 ERA from Maine would be excellent. Those are good projections. The W-L just means that the Mets offense is not projected to score too many runs.

  2. I’m as optimistic as anyone here, but if James is right about those 3, that’s only 26 wins. Add a 20-win season (VERY optimistic) for Johan, and 8 from #5, and it’s still just 54. Getting 35 from the pen and various fill-ins is asking a LOT.

    To contend, I’d like to see at least 30 Ws from the 2-3-4 group!

  3. Ughh!! The W-L in the projections don’t mean anything about the pitchers. Its the ERAs that are meaningful. These projections are good news. If those 3 pitch as well as those projections suggest then we’re in good shape. Forget about the W-L projections. Those are meaningless.

  4. Thanks for being positive.

    If everything breaks right we will be winners.

    If everything broke right the last 3 years, every year would be 2006 deja vu.

    As I posted yesterday. This offseason is a repeat of last offseason.

    I don’t expect the slew of injuries from last year and we only won 70 games, but since we have not improved ourselves do we realistically expect that everything will break the way we dream and we win 95 games and make it to the world series?

  5. jd

    to ur pic.

    yes. ollie /maine/ jose are keys to the season.

    if jose is the player he used to be and ollie and maine perform like they did in 07 then you have hope.

    At this point this team needs to prove to me that they can play. I have no hope they can do that because to me 2006 was a fluke not the past 3.

  6. This projection business is without a doubt the most useless stuff developed. To get excited or depressed or anything based on them is just amazin amazin amazin as one of our retired #s said many years ago.

  7. 3. TMS, please explain to Chiti that ERA is the most effective way to judge a pitcher. I have tried but have failed to reach him.

  8. JD, How did you like my song in the catcher thread? (hoping for a midday response) Sing it along to dear prudence. (remember when Mad magazine used to have these?) I know you favor the stones, but Im sure your familiar with the classic white album.

  9. (8) And on February 12, somewhere in the hills of Fairfield County, John Delcos woke up and saw his shadow, thereby indicating another six weeks until Spring Training games.

  10. 9. Hey, tiffany just called delcos a groundhog. I think the PC police should be called immediately.

  11. 10. John, I have to admit you are a good sport. I dont know. Maybe Im just a punk who has nothing better to do than rail against the authorites. I feel you do not join the conversation enough, but thats just my opinion.

  12. 7. Ok, Sadecki based on your onme track mind I now am convinced that Nelson the Fig is virtually the same pitcher as Josh Beckett. I’m sure you agree completely. 2009 Nelson blossomed into a pitcher with a wonderful 4.09 ERA while the supposed ace Becket had a an ERA barely better than this minimum wage pitcher had…3.86. So don’t dcome back next Winter and tell us that the Mets need Beckett because he is barely better than the Fig. Who cares that he can win and the Fig can only lose. Afterall pennants are now won on ERA.

  13. 13. chiti, so glad you finally see the light. Maybe this site should be re-named the sadecki/chiti show. Sorry it was my idea so I get top billing. Yeah!! :D

  14. 10. Delcos, I guess one post is as often as you can. thats better than usual. I will forego my top billing for now and give it over to chiti until i see the owner of this blog caring about it more than his posters.