Dec. 27.09: Here’s quantifying what the Mets are thinking ….

The Mets were 70-92 last season, 11 games off the pace to finish .500 and 22 behind the wild-card Colorado Rockies. For the record, they were 23 games behind Philadelphia in the NL East.

METS: Wishing and hoping.

METS: Wishing and hoping.

They have done precious little this offseason to make anybody believe they will cut substantially into those deficits. At least, little in comparison to the front office comments spouted by Jeff Wilpon and Omar Minaya in the immediate days following the end of the disastrous 2009 season.

Because they know it won’t go over well in selling tickets and creating goodwill, the Mets can’t articulate that their plan is to bring back their pieces intact and hope for the best.

With each passing day that becomes clearer and clearer. Let’s try to put numbers to their thinking.

With the healthy comebacks of Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, and return to power for David Wright, the Mets picture 85 victories, going under the assumption each player individually accounts for five more wins over the course of the season. That’s roughly three more victories per month.

That’s doable. It gets them over .500, but still out of the wild card picture.

From there, it’s harder to say where the wins will come from. Let’s add four more victories with a healthy return for Johan Santana to give him 17 total and the team 89 on the season.

These are things the Mets’ front office envisions.

Then, there is what the front office – fingers crossed – hopes for, and that would be improvement from Mike Pelfrey, John Maine and Oliver Perez. Factoring conservatively, assuming each wins ten games in 2010, that should be enough to have them contend with the Phillies. Pelfrey won ten games last year, so it’s a wash for him.

Remember, if this improvement comes to fruition, some of those victories will be in the games credited to the Reyes-Wright-Beltran improvement.

Of course, it’s hard to accurately quantify all this. Some of the projecting, mostly in the offense, is based on passed performance.

The pitching, save Santana, is wishful thinking.

Overall, they they are hoping for a lot of good things to happen. Everything has to fall into place and how often does that happen?

10 thoughts on “Dec. 27.09: Here’s quantifying what the Mets are thinking ….

  1. well, to their credit, they did make a serious offer to Bay. His agent is calling the Red Sox begging to come back. That tells you nobody else is matching the Mets offer. Good for Minaya not to bid against himself. Same with Molina. Now its time wait Piniero out. Hes not getting 4 years. There is still talent out there and agents need to learn that they cant use the Mets to be patsies anymore.

  2. Ray (1): Pineiro certainly doesn’t merit four years. This isn’t a guy who has traditionally been a big winner. He was good last season, but how much was that Dave Duncan?-JD

  3. dave (2): Didn’t say it was the right thing to do. Just trying to speculate what their thinking is. Everything has to go right for it to happen.-JD

  4. Sometimes a small market team can upset the established order for free agents. Milwaukee gave Wolf a stupid contract and now all of these mediocrities think they should get the same or more. Houston just gave a 3 year 15 mil deal to often injured reliever Lyons. Valid point about Duncan, look at our old friend Looper for an example. Anybody remember Suppan? Both he and blooper had eras over 5 last year.

  5. “Sometimes a small market team can upset the established order for free agents”

    They have their nerve making a move that the Mets don’t like…

  6. 6. I guess you didnt get the present you wanted, chiti. Giving out stupid contracts hurts all the other teams especially the other small market teams.

  7. 7. ???? If anyone in the world can’t complain about another team’s bad contract it is Omar Minaya the GM of the small market team in NYC. The Mets have nothing to complain about. Unlike the guys Minaya signed, at least there was a market for Wolf. And there is no such thing as a small market team. Its a BS line made up and bought by reporters and then by fans to make excuses for extremely rich owners not trying to win or not caring because they make profit as is.. For example, the Twins ownership is richer than the Yankees and the Pirates make money despite losing by not paying anybody and taking money from national contracts and luxury taxes etc. And South Florida has more people than metro Boston. Its all BS.
    When MLB puts a team in Salina Kansas, they can say they are a small market team. Until then, there’s ben enough Koolaide taken.

  8. (9) Weeks back, Bill Madden published a piece that quoted a source as saying that the Pirates in particular had received a significant chunk of revenue-sharing money, but that Frank Connelly had been diverting all those dollars to prop up another of his investments, Seven Springs. And, despite this, the Pirates were still profitable.

    That said, when it comes time to criticize Omar fans often have short memories. For example, the Astros reportedly offered Luis Castillo a three-year deal which prompted Omar to step up and add a fourth. (The Astros later gave Kaz Matsui a three-year deal, which is essentially where Omar would have been had Castillo signed elsewhere.)

    While it’s easy for us to say what’s reasonable for a given player, it’s still a market-driven economy. If Brian “My Wife is Hotter Than My Game” Schneider warrants a two-year deal, how on earth does Bengie Molina not warrant three? Schneider, Kendall and, while in negotiations with the Rockies, Torrealba were all looking at two-year deals. That’s what the market is bearing. If Omar has to go an extra year to get a better player (as he did with Castillo versus Matsui), does that make it a bad deal? I think it’s all in the context of the market.