This isn’t how the Mets should make a statement ….

While not in Jeff Wilpon’s mind, it isn’t hard to imagine an even greater sense of urgency to the Mets to make a winter splash in the wake of the Yankees’ World Series title.

CHAPMAN: A risky proposition.

CHAPMAN: A risky proposition.

That shouldn’t include throwing $60-million stone in the Aroldis Chapman pond. That’s the reported starting point for the hard-throwing, lefty Cuban defector. Chapmanā€™s agent, Edwin Mejia, said he’s spoken with both teams, and Mets’ GM Omar Minaya is still listening.

Many scouting reports are high on Chapman, but there have been a lot of rave reviews about players who’ve never made it. And, these are players scouts have seen regularly in college and the minor leagues.

One doesn’t have to look back that far to see another untested foreign pitcher ride a huge salary into the major leagues to not live up to the hype. You don’t think the Red Sox wouldn’t like a do over on that one?

Not many have seen Chapman pitch in Cuba. That’s not to say he might not pan out, but there’s a larger element of risk. And, with so many holes to fill, throwing $60 million at a question mark doesn’t seem to be the prudent thing to do.

Chapman could very well end up being a star, but the Mets have too many issues to make that kind of gamble right now. They already have four questions in their rotation, why spend that money on another one?

6 thoughts on “This isn’t how the Mets should make a statement ….

  1. Hey John. You’re assuming that if they do acquire Chapman it will preclude them from filling their other holes. I don’t think that’s how they should look at it.

    I agree its a risk. Baseball Prospectus calculate what they all MLE for different leagues. Its a way to convert stats from other leagues and colleges to their major league equivalents (hence MLE). They do this by comparing the performance of players that move between different leagues. So if 20 players have made the jump from the Cuban leagues to the big leagues they can compare the difference in their performance between the leagues. They then figure out the average difference. Of course its an average, some do better some worse when they move from one level to another but they do at least have an average to use as a useful comparison in the difficulty level of the 2 leagues.

    For the Cuban pro league the numbers show it be about A ball (that’s right single A). So whatever Chapman did in Cuba look at it like he did the same thing at the same age in high A ball. He’ll turn 22yrs old in February.

  2. Speaking of young players, The Mets players at the AFL are stinking it up except Davis who is cooling after his big start. You want to talk about risk for young pitchers? The Mets top pitching prospect Mejia is sporting a 12.90 era and a 3 whip! Let the yankees take a chance on chapman. nobody else can afford it.

  3. Lets see. Strasberg cost the Nats @ 15 mil for 4 years. He has pitched in front of scouts for a full 3 years in college. He has been clocked at over 100mph regularly, and someone wants to give this guy 20 mil, because based on the exploits of 20 other palyers he played A level ball, (MAYBE) was wild, nobody knows his work ethics, and he pitched a few innings in the WBC. Let him come close to Strasberg numbers and then give everyone a call.

  4. TMS (1): That’s exactly how I am looking at it. I don’t think that’s the right way, but based on past history, it’s not an unreasonable assumption.-JD

  5. Ray (2): Nice to see you. I noticed that about the AFL. I had a post the other day about Mejia and how a bad idea it would be to rush him to the majors next year as a reliever.-JD