Wondering about Perez ….

PEREZ: What's he thinking?

PEREZ: What is he thinking?

We all know about Oliver Perez’s inconsistency and propensity for losing concentration on the mound. For him to be out there this long I’m starting to think his agent, Scott Boras, isn’t doing him any favors.

Perez’s mind must be all over the place, just like one of those days when he can’t find the plate. It appears Perez isn’t going to get what he wants and you have to wonder how much he’ll let it affect him on the mound.

Maybe a better strategy instead of going five years is to go two, and if he produces over that time he can do this again and cash in. Remember, last season was a walk year for Perez, and although he pitched well in spurts he still had too many moments when he didn’t and won only ten games.

39 thoughts on “Wondering about Perez ….

  1. The longer he’s out there, the greater the chance his deal diminishes. If the Mets move forward without him, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t go the Kyle Lohse route with a one-year deal.

    There really doesn’t seem to be any team interested in him for a multi-year deal other than the Mets, who really need to pick up the pace a bit here…and stop waiting around.

  2. And though this is off-topic, what’s with the Mets signing Cory Sullivan yesterday? His style is exactly the same as Jeremy Reed…so what’s the point?

    Depth is one thing, but how many OFs do they want to stockpile? Aside from the projected regulars (Beltran, Church, Tatis/Murphy), they have Evans (who can play 1B too), Anderson, Reed, Sullivan and Pagan.

    Assuming Anderson is a lock, which he shouldn’t be but probably will be, they have four guys fighting for one spot, basically.

  3. According to Rosenthal, Sheets could be had for a one-year, $7mm deal with heavy incentives and a rich club option.

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9112648/Don%27t-be-foolish,-the-Yankees-aren%27t-done-yet

    I really think signing Sheets to that type of deal is smart…and if the Mets want to be even smarter, sign Wolf or Perez too. You could basically get two pitchers for less or just a bit more than Derek Lowe himself ended up costing.

    I really hope the Mets are laying in the weeds here rather than playing stupid games, because they are going to get burned if they keep dancing with Boras and ignoring other options.

  4. (4)Mr.Met: I think Sheets must read here because it sounds almost like the same proposal I was giving him except i’d give him more years than one. lol. I’d rather have Sheets than Ollie if there was a choice. Of course the Mets should be able to sign BOTH of them, but you know that will never happen.

  5. Oh yeah and the Sullivan signing makes absolutely no sense at all. It’s a waste of up to a potential 900K that could have gone into the “budget” of a starting pitcher.

  6. The longer this off-season drags on, the more confused I get about exactly what Omar is doing to improve this team and the less enthusiastic I get about the chances for a championship in 2009.

    Conventional wisdom says that a trade is brewing … we still have glaring holes or major questio n marks in LF, 2B, SP and Bullpen … stockpiling reserve outfields makes no sens unless you are planning to package one with someone else from the roster and a rookie or two to bring back something that fills a hole.

    Until something happens, I continue to scratch my head at what Omar is doing.

  7. (6) Rok- He’ll get another starter. He has to, and if he doesn’t, he has some major explaining to do.

    And I don’t particularly think that your confusion with what Omar is(n’t) doing should be directed at him. It should be directed at the Wilpons who are refusing to go much higher, if at all, than last year’s $140mm payroll.

  8. I wonder if we lose out on OP also.

    I wonder how the fans will react to wolf and redding in the 4/5 slot.

  9. Why is it that we act in a serial fashion?

    What is so hard about the team going after multiple needs at once?

    I do not understand this one at a time thing. It’s not like the front office begins and ends with Omar.

  10. Sullivan actually hits lhp better than Reed.
    The amount of AB’s for both is small.
    Reed .157 159 abs
    Sullivan .278 90 abs
    The ML minimum salary is $ 390,000
    Sullivan’s guarantee is not much more.

    What really is the big deal.
    This should not stop the Mets from spending on a starting pitcher.

    btw does anyone know if either player has minor league options left.
    Also does anyone know if Reeds or Sullivans contracts are guaranteed if they get cut in spring training.
    I know the rules may be different for players who have not reached free agency.

  11. (9) Dave- I really think the Wilpons have tied his hands in regards to upping the payroll. Although frustrating, the Perez scenario is what it is because of Boras…and based on everything I’ve read/heard, he’s still their top choice.

    Doesn’t make the waiting any better, but I do think that’s playing a big role.

  12. MeMet (#7) … I know he’ll get another starter, but we really are down to mediocre options at this point …. Sheets is by far an away the best talent, but his injury historu poses a huge risk.

    I think most would agree at this point that Sheets + one of Perez/Wolf/Garlnad (preferably Perez in my book) should be secured to really put forth a strong starting staff, but it won;t happen.

    Is that the Wilpon’s fault — maybe … but I have pretty much lost my patience … if the financial picture is not good and we have $135M or so team that is built to “compete” and not formidable enough to win a chanpionship then that is the fault of Minaya and the Wilpons …. an for the record, I really think this is a mediocre plus team that is 2nd or 3rd best in the East …. it is not a championship team.

    Why on God’s green earth was Sullivan signed? Frankly, I was surprised to see Pagan get a $575K contract …. with Reed, why do we need 3 4th outfielders … all with guranteed contracts for 2009 … Reed and Sullivan are out of options so they can not just be sent to AAA …. makes no sense ….

    If the money is so tight as the Mets would have you believe (which is amazing considering 4 million fans is 2008, over 3.4M in 2009, new stadium, TV network, merchandising, naming rights, etc.) then why commit the Sullivan and Pagan money (the $1.7M for Sanchez too)?

    This is a complete leadership meltdown as far as I am concerned …. I am getting more and more pissed off just typing all this stuff ….

  13. (10) Scott- It’s not a big deal, it’s just weird. Though a reason may be just to stockpile certain areas for depth in case of trades, etc.

    The move on top of having Pagan/Reed is weird.

  14. (12) I don’t buy the “poverty” angle either, though to be fair, no Mets execs have said such a thing…but it certainly seems that way in how they’ve approached things.

    I do disagree, however, that the team is “mediocre plus” The goal is to win a championship and I agree that they certainly don’t look like a slam dunk title contender, but you get to the playoffs…all bets are off.

    The Phillies didn’t look like a World Series winner either.

  15. MrMet (#12) … the flaw in your comment as I see it is this …

    1) Are the Mets better now then they were at any point in 2008?

    2) Are they better now then they were at any point in 2007?

    3) Did the Mets make the playoffs in either 2007 or 2008?

    4) Did the competition [Philly & Atlanta] get better?

    1 = No, 2 = No, 3 = No, 4 = Yes

    The Mets are by no means a “slam dunk title contender” …. but seriously, do you really think this team as currently constructed (or now, by filling in the holes with who is still available) can be a “slam dunk post-season participant”?

    No way …. the Phillies are clearly better and the Braves are improved — five quality starters and a decent bullpen.

    The Mets have not done what they need to do to make them a slam-dunk post-season participant … they do enough to compete but not enough to get over the top …. the last two seasons are solid examples of that.

    With this current crew, there will be no September collapse …. these guys will have fallen out of it by early August.

    I hope I am wrong — but, ….

  16. (13) We’ll just have to agree to disagree. I am taking some liberties in my opinion because I’m assuming the Mets will get a starter.

    If they do that, their rotation can either be solid to very good, depending on who they get. The bullpen is strong. The offense will be streaky, unfortunately, but will probably put up acceptable numbers overall.

    Atlanta was a 72-win team last year. They will not improve by 15-20 games…no way.

    The Phillies are the World Champs and deserve to be treated as such. They also have a rotation that has question marks after Hamels and a bullpen where every possible scenario went right last season.

    I don’t expect that to happen again.

    *If* the Mets sign Perez, Sheets or Wolf, the rest of the team is solid enough that picking the Mets to win the East is completely acceptable.

    People tend to forget how pathetic their bullpen was last year and how it cost them the last 2.5 weeks. The collapse in ’07 was just that…last year was not a collapse. It was a direct result of having nobody to turn to in the late innings.

    The Mets still have a mental barrier to break through, but everyone though the Phillies “owned” them. The Mets were 11-8 against Philly last year after going 6-12 the previous year, which included 8 straight losses to them to end the season…9 if you count ’08s home opener.

  17. And please don’t interpret my comments to mean that I am satisfied with the Mets or think that they don’t have holes.

    They do.

    I just don’t think their team is as flawed as you think they are. Again…I’m going under the assumption they get a starter of note.

    If they do that, the rotation is equal to or better than last years, plus a better bullpen. Unless the Mets severely struggle offensively next year, they are probably a better team…discounting injuries of course.

  18. The Phillies are not clearly better.
    They will miss Burrell, Utely will not be ready to play until mid May at the earliest and Lidge will not have as good a season.
    Also Moyer is a year older.

    The Braves have pitching but the key guys in the pen all had arm trouble last year and their offense needs help.

    If this was the Mets team on opening day I would be worried but lets wait till the end of January to start the fire Omar rants.

    If not for Scott Boras alot more players would have signed.

    The Braves panicked and over payed for Lowe.
    Should the Mets panic and over pay for Perez.

  19. I understand the Mets are not the Yanks. But they way to get better is to go get the players you need: Pen, Starters and fill in the other stuff with role players.

    They got the Pen. Their starters are looking like garbage. We are not much better than last year and as always have major questions in the rotation like we have had every year for years.

    This was the year with the economy and the market the way it is to break out of our recent history and get the players you need/want. All players this year are reasonably priced compared to the past few years, but we are in the same boat.

    The overpaying of the marginal players is insane.

    The not paying for the players you need is insane.

  20. (18) Scott- I agree. If the Mets don’t get another legit SP, then the Wilpons and Minaya should be burned at the stake by the press and fans.

    But because some of these players NY has interest in are still out there, you can’t really do that yet.

    And you hit the nail on the head perfectly about the Braves and Phillies. The Phillies will be right there, warts and all, because they are a talented team. But even the most optimistic Philadelphia fan cannot expect the bullpen to bail out that team time after time after time like they did. And that doesn’t even mean Lidge…it’s every other member of that pen who had career years.

    The Braves rotation is solid, but the offense is weak and Chipper misses at least 30-35 games a year at this point and the bullpen isn’t anything to write home about either.

  21. (19) Dave- I agree with a majority of your points. You’re not alone in your thinking because I’ve read it all over the place, but this idea that the rotation is shaky, **assuming** they do sign a SP of note, is a bit off-base.

    Santana is an ace. Pelfrey improved by leaps and bounds. Outside of an injury, I think he’ll be a solid starter because he doesn’t give up homers and his big problem, control, was not an issue which is what ultimately led to his success. We have to wait and see on Maine, but the guy had a bone spur shaved off the back of his shoulder. Nothing structural. Redding/Niese are no. 5 starters anyway you slice it.

    If you bring in Perez or Sheets…that’s a very, very, very strong rotation. If you bring in Wolf, it’s still very solid, particularly with the bullpen beefed up.

    Of course this is just my opinion and I have been wrong a million times, so I could be again, but if the Mets do get one of Sheets or Perez, discounting potential injuries, they should be a 92-96 win team.

  22. MrMet (#16 & #17) … to be clear, I respect your opinion and would agree to disagree … no hard feelings at all.

    FWIW, I feel a trade of some kind coming … I just do. It would be unusual to have a big trade made this close to ST, but this has been a weird off-season.

    With over 100 unigned free agents, an awful lot has to occur in a short poeriod of time.

  23. Scott,

    That is exactly the question. If the Mets lose out on OP what should we think?

    I have said over and over OP is over-rated.

    He is now the best of the bunch. If we don’t get him then what?

    We have the same rotation as last year. If we get him we have the same rotation as last year.

  24. Scvott (#10)

    btw does anyone know if either player has minor league options left … does anyone know if Reeds or Sullivans contracts are guaranteed if they get cut in spring training

    I read somewhere (can’t recall where right now) that both Reed and Sullivan are out of options … Reed’s contract is for $925K guranteed and Sullivan earns $600K guranteed with an additional $300K available in incentives.

    So, I ask “WHY?”

  25. I did a bit of checking and Pagan and Reed’s contracts may actually not completely guaranteed. If they were to be cut before the start of the season the Mets would only be obligated for 45 days pay on their contracts.
    This may also be the case on Sullivan but I am not sure because he was signed as a FA.

    Is it possible Omar thinks Sullivan is a better player than Pagan or Reed.

    Any upgrade even to the last guy on the bench is important.

    Look at what Tatis did last year.

  26. (25) Scott- Considering that Reed, Pagan and Sullivan have all had pretty extensive MLB service time, one of the three may very well be dealt during the spring for an extra arm.

  27. mrmet0805 (21)

    I guess we have to disagree. Santana had surgery to repair the knee. If his legs go then he will have problems. I am assuming it will be better, but may have issues in the spring. Am I worried? A bit.

    Pelf had his first good year. How many times do you see a pitcher struggle in year 2? This is year 2. I hope he can build on last year, but…

    Maine – everyone here says it is minor surgery. What surgery is minor? Bone spurs? I want to see him perform to the level of a few years ago. I haven’t seen it yet. I am from Missouri. Call me insane.

    Niese is a minor leaguer. Please. Remember Pelf’s first year? We wanted to hang him..

    Redding pitched 500 with a 5 era. Next.

    We do not have 5 starters for the rotation.

    A bird in the hand and all that. Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Missouri…

    We have 4 pitchers of which one is an ace coming off cleansing surgery and the other had one nice year in his very first tour in the majors, the third has had injury issues the past few years and the other was discarded by his old team.

    Is this a rotation I WANT to go to battle with?

    I want them to succeed and at this point hope they sign Ollie, but by no means am I happy with what we have.

    Now if we sign Ollie and Sheets before spring training? I will change my tune..

  28. There are many here who talk about Ollie as being talented, young, yada yada yada.

    On SNY tonight I caught the last inning of the game pitched by another young pitcher clinching the division in 1988 against the Phils. Yes it was Ron Darling pitching a complete game – catch me while I faint – he went 17-9 that year 3.25 era and 240 innings. That is a pitcher. And guess what? He was 25. By that time in his career he was better than this guy may ever be.

    Oh yeah. He was never an Ace on our team, but more talented than any on this team in the past how many years save for a guy named Johan.

    Just a thought…

  29. In mrmets post 3 Rosenthal writes that a lot of teams are trying to keep thier payrolls flexible, expecting salary dump values as soon as spring training. I am as tired as the rest of you about all the waiting, but as I have said before, SPs like Webb, Halliday and others could be trade bait if thier teams fall out early. I have no use for Ollie and his demands. Boras got lucky with Lowe who at least is steady. Ollie will not get more than 3 year deal. Better to take a shot at sheets for the incentive deal. Problem is the yankees are interested in him too.

  30. As for the Phillies, Theyve got Ryan Howard asking for a cool 18Mil to play for them next year. Thats an 8m raise over last year. Club is offering 14 Mil. They had 10 arb eligible players who all are getting raises. They are going to have payroll problems too, if they start badly. Phil fans will turn on them in a minute.

  31. (27) Dave- We’ll just have to disagree then. I’m not nearly as worried about the rotation as you are. It’s not the Braves of the mid ’90s, but if they add an SP of note, it will be quite good.

  32. Scott (#25) — I have not seen the same info about contracts as you …. if the contract is guranteed to a certain amount, then the player is getting that money from someone …. just responded similarly to this about Sanchez in the Ollie thread.

    Reed’s contract is for $925K guranteed and Sullivan earns $600K guranteed with an additional $300K available in incentives.

    If Sullivan is cut in ST — or anytime thru the 2009 season — the Mets are on the hook for the entire $600K unless he is picked up by someone else … in that case, the new team would only be responsible for the MLB minimum and the Mets would need to make up the diffeence between that and the remaining amoint of his contract. Frankly, the impact on the Mets in this case is minimal since the MLB minimum is about $500K so your point on him makes sense.

    Reed’s risk is a bit morw, but he is guranteed $925K from the Mets or the Mets + someone else … and neither has options left.

    Dabe (#27) On the starting pitching … you have stated very clearly what I have been saying for the last month or so … exactly my feelings on the current staff as constructed today with the one huge hole.

    As for Perez, I go hot and cold on him — he really isn;t that great …. I like what Sheets COULD be, but really fear his health …. the answer is to sign both but the Mets aren’t doing that …. they should, but they won’t.

  33. What do you expect from this ownership. Do you really expect them to spend to win!!! Check out their so called Saturday or Sunday tix packages. You only get 10 of the Sat or Sundays and you get stuck with 5weekday games. They used to have sma;;er pl;ans for the less rich but now the smallest is 15. They got ponzied and they want it back from everyone else. The Wilpons care nothing about winning. They just want todo enough to keep us coming back.

  34. rock
    the contract information I found was at the MLB players association site. They actually have the players basic agreement contract with the owners.
    It states that players who are released due to lack of performance 16 days or less but before the first day of the season are only guaranteed 45 days of their contract.
    I believe this only applies to players who have not reached free agency but it was not clear. Untill FA players do not have as many rights.
    Also in Ken Rosenthal’s recent column that starts with new on Ollie he stated that any player who accepts arbitration from his team may not have their whole contract guaranteed.
    It is in the last part of this story.

    Here is a link to that story

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9117560/Market-for-Perez-remains-hard-to-figure

  35. Scott (#34) thanks for the link.

    First, this one caught my eye and changes a great deal regarding all the outfielders:

    Correction to an item that appeared in my previous notes column: Both Jeremy Reed and Cory Sullivan have minor-league options remaining, meaning that the Mets can demote either or both to Class AAA without risk of losing them on waivers. Reed and Sullivan are similar players, reserve outfielders who bat from the left side. The Mets signed Sullivan after trading for Reed with the goal of adding more depth …

    Second: I am now very confused about the whole arbitration process and how if effects guranteed contracts ….

    In any case, again, thanks for forwarding this link.

  36. Why do we need more reserve OF that bat lefty? Can’t we get marginal players like this who bat from the right side?

  37. dave
    for some reason reserve OF who hit from the right side seem harder to find.

    rock
    tks for the info on options
    the contracts make more sense since the Mets do not have many OF prospects at AAA except for F-Mart and maybe Evans.

  38. Scott/Dave, I rather have a good defensive player out there that bats well regardless of lefty right status. Sometimes you just have to not have a lineup geared for a particular pitcher. If you can get batters to hit pitchers regardless of their arm then you have a team. I think JD would agree. ;-)

    I think of the teams of old and there wasnt that much platooning only if the hitter was below avg but the glove was above.
    oh well armchair managers all of us.

    As for Ollie, he needs to grow up and throw the ball or take what they give him. In the work field if you don’t produce you find yourself on the street. and this days even if you do produce u r on the street because someone will claim to do it cheaper but you get what you pay for…
    just my 3 cents.

  39. I think Minaya is just stockpiling guys in the case of injury and/or ineffectiveness. Plus, if one of Pagan, Reed or Sullivan excels during ST, he can perhaps package one of the remaining two for an extra arm, if need be.

    Wouldn’t be anyone great, but at least it gives him something to work with.