If GM Omar Minaya isn’t confident, then there’s no reason for you to be.

Minaya placed the odds at “50-50” the Mets will add a bigger-named pitcher than Tim Redding, saying, “you’re never too confident.”

Here’s why.

With reports of the Braves having a $60 million package on the table for Derek Lowe, and Oliver Perez wanting four years while the Mets prefer three, they could be forced to fall back on Randy Wolf and Pedro Martinez.

I like Redding as a fifth starter, but if all this pans out, he could end up fourth which leaves the Mets vulnerable in the back end of the rotation.

All that work fixing the bullpen could be wasted if twice a week the Mets aren’t going deep into the game with their starter.

20 thoughts on “Ouch!

  1. Then let the Braves have him. That is an absolutely ridiculous offer for Derek Lowe. I’m sure the Mets could get one of Perez/Wolf.

    While I could see and totally understand the Mets not going four years for Lowe, I could see them doing so with Perez, considering he’s only 27.

    But I don’t think they’d go much more than $11mm/year for him.

  2. And I also never trust what a GM says when talking to the media. He’s not going to sit there and say that he’s confident they’ll get someone.

    If he does that and then actually doesn’t, he’s just asking to be raked over the coals.

  3. I posted this in the Patch thread, but it probably should be here:

    It’s horrendous, but not as horrendous as the job the Wilpons are doing by not doing what it takes to put a championship team on the field. The Braves should never, repeat, NEVER be allowed to outbid the Mets for any player. I know, it’s difficult to call the Wilpons “cheap” when you have a 140 million payroll but let’s look at this closer….

    Pedro was signed to give the Mets a face of the franchise coming off an awful PR year of 2004 with the trading of Kazmir

    Beltran fell into their lap when the Yankees did not take Boras’s proposal

    Does anyone think the Mets would have actually signed Johan had he been a FA?

    What would have been wrong with Omar going after CC? Does it make a difference spending 20 mil on one great player or 20 mil on two o.k. players?

    If they really feel like Lowe is the answer to the rotation, then you can’t let the Braves beat you out for his services.

    With the MLB draft, the Mets always adhere to the commisioner’s “slotting,” instead of doing what most other teams with money do which is to draft and sign the best player that they think is available, NOT the player that best fits into their “slot.”

    I have to think the blame falls at the very top. And if Omar is the guy to blame for this, so be it.

    But no matter what, DO NOT sell us on a rotation of Santana/Maine/Pelfrey/Wolf/Redding….no way, not going to do.

  4. (1)Mr. Met: Yes, the offer is up there for Lowe, BUT..if Omar thinks that Lowe is the guy that is going to put them over the top, then he needs to match the offer and stop acting like we are the Marlins.

  5. Why are the Braves offering twice as much for Lowe? Did a Steinbrenner son buy the team and decided to overpay by 100%?

    I hope Minaya doesn’t define “a bigger name” as someone with more than 7 letters in his last name.

  6. (3) Steve- I responded to you in the other thread too!!! LOL

    There is a time and a place to spend or even overpay. Hell, I don’t care if they overpay for certain guys, but this is a ridiculous contract for for a guy who’s going to be 36 in a few months.

    Spend the money, by all means, but spend it elsewhere. To me, this is the biggest problem with the Mets/Wilpons. It’s not that they are cheap, it’s that they choose to spend a lot of money on the wrong players.

    I think this is actually a good move considering the age and stature of Lowe. Re-sign Perez and sign Sheets to boot or re-sign Perez and go after a big hitter.

    That’s a lot smarter than giving Lowe $60mm.

  7. (5) Dan- Basically because they are not the team or franchise they were from 1991-2005 so they need to overpay, much like the Mets did after ’04 for Pedro and Beltran.

    I also think the loss of Smoltz really was the impetus. Add in the “all but signed” contracts they had with Burnett and Furcal and they have had egg all over their faces this winter.

    Their fans are irate.

  8. Mr. Met, yes..alot of times they do spend money on the wrong players , Castillo..Schoenweis..El Duque, etc…but the problem I have is that if they deem Lowe to be the best starter out there and one that is going to put them over the top, then there really is no reason not to match the offer, no matter if it might hurt them two years later. What they should have done is go after C.C. strong and prove to their fanbase that the ownership is in it to win it. Not just compete and play those wonderful “meaningful games.” Again, you can’t sell me a back end of the rotation of Randy Wolf and Tim Redding…not for the Mets.

  9. Dan:(5) You have to remember that the Braves were bidding way before they lost Smoltz as they were bidding on Burnett, and they were looking for starters all off season as they spent significant time trying to deal for Peavy. Sorry mascot(7) but you just aren’t all knowing.
    Steve (3) You are exactly right asking about CC. But the thing we all need to know is whether Omar didn’t want him or was he prohibited by ownership from going after him. You are also right about they have to go after Lowe if they think he is the answer to win. If he’s not the guy then they shouldn’t have talked at all. This game is the wrong game. Its not a game to win. Its a disgrace for a team with this much dough playing small market at their convenience while charging big market prices to the fans.

  10. (8) Steve- If they do sign Lowe and then call it an offseason, they will have some serious explaining to do.

    But we’re just going to have to agree to disagree re: Lowe. And I’m not so sure that was the Mets first choice either. From what I’ve read recently, Omar wants Perez back more than he wanted to sign Lowe. It was other members of the front office who preferred him.

    I get what you’re saying about sucking it up and dealing with it down the road, but you’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t with this fanbase. If the Mets signed Lowe to that contract, many people would have been up in arms about it.

    Now that they haven’t, those same people (not you necessarily) are saying, ‘why didn’t they outbid the Braves?’

    Use the money they didn’t want to spend on the older guy to get either two younger pitchers (Sheets/Perez) or Perez and a big hitter.

  11. Well it’s a done deal…the Braves signed Lowe. Now Omar, get your team out of this mess. It’s time to dazzle your fan base. You remember how confident Omar/Cheapons were that Lowe wouldn’t get a better offer elsewhere? It’s when you start thinking that your poop doesn’t stink is the time when you get a swift kick in the butt. I hope they learned their lesson.

  12. The Mets need a lefty to balance the rotation and when they play the Phillies.
    Perez or Wolf is a bigger need than Lowe.

    Lowe is a 6 inning pitcher. 60 million is actually dumber than the money the Yankees spent on CC and Burnett.

    Nice to hear you bringing up the negative past the moment you are not happy with a move the Mets do not make.
    I find that truly annoying.
    Stop with the history lessons on the bad Mets moves of the past. Most of us here know all about them.

    The Mets decision not to offer Lowe 60 million has nothing to do with what happened in the past.
    If the Mets really wanted Lowe they would have offered more or guaranteed a 5th year.

    My feeling is Lowe never wanted to pitch for the Mets. Having guys how are not happy to be on your team is just not a good idea.

  13. Atlanta has not been making too many smart moves lately. They paid a lot of money to Hampton and got little back. They let Smoltz go over 3 million. They took Glavine back and didnt even wait to see if the Mets were going to offer arbitration last year. I see this as another stupid move by them. Lowe is not worth that kind of money or commitment.
    Now the focus will be on Ollie. If Boras still wants to play hardball, there is still Wolf, Sheets, Petitte, Pedro and others out there. For the 15 Mil Lowe is getting you could get 2 pitchers out of that list.

  14. (15) Scott…Yes, I missed the part where the Mets have had a starter that threw 200 IP or very close to that over the past 4 years. Yes, we have many of those guys. And check your stats about Lowe being a 6 inning pitcher, he threw into the 7th inning plus 18 times last year out of 34 starts…tell me, how many Met pitchers have done that in the last few years? Do you know how many times Ollie did that in his 34 starts? 11 times..And i’m sorry if it irks you to bring up bad past moves, but they are facts and they are part of history. I didn’t make them up.

  15. (15)Ray…What I disagree most about your last statement is that IMO, I would rather have the better pitcher than two o.k. pitchers. As far as the Braves go, they really had no choice but to offer Lowe that contract anyway because they needed to save face with the fanbase from Smoltz. However, I do not think it’s a bad signing at all and I would have given Lowe the same deal if Omar told me that he felt he needed Lowe to get the Mets over the top.

  16. Steve
    The history does not irk me just the fact you need to use it to justify your argument for not signing Lowe.

    I can also use Met history to prove a point.
    Bobby Bonilla only signed with the Mets because they offered him 1 more guaranteed year than the Phillies. How different would Met history be if they had just said no.

    As far as pitching goes I would rather have Sheets, Perez or Wolf.

    One more fact on Lowe. He was desperate to get as much money as possible because of his divorce. It is not considered polite to talk about the personal lives of players but hey it is true.