Have the Mets blown it with Lowe?

LOWE: Is he heading south?

LOWE: Is he heading south?

Reports have John Smoltz going to the Red Sox and Atlanta replacing him with Derek Lowe. Have the Mets misplayed this? Should they have been more proactive with Lowe and given in to the big-bucks demands? Do you think they’ve blown it with Lowe and now have to settle for Oliver Perez?

If that’s the case, can’t you just see them bringing back Pedro Martinez and having the same rotation as last season?

40 thoughts on “Have the Mets blown it with Lowe?

  1. Your premise that getting a slightly better than average pitcher with nowhere to go but down is a plus. I think not getting this guy would be plus regardless of who takes the spot. When did Lowe become this superstar?. I know one guy here thinks CC isn’t half of Johan. If that were true than Lowe isn’t one tenth of Johan.
    They blew it when they decided not to go after the best around….. Afraid to go up against the big boys you get what you get.

  2. Harry (1): I looked at it as slotting. That the Mets were after a No. 4 or No. 5 starter. I knew they were never in it for CC. My evaluation of Lowe is as a back-end starter because that’s what the Mets said they were looking for. Truth be told, the numbers for Maine and Pelfrey are back-end quality.-JD

  3. (2) JD- Some people just cannot get it out of their heads that Sabathia was never going to be here.

    I don’t think they’ve blown it with Lowe at all, it’s the game Boras likes to play. Since everything I’ve read/heard about their being virtually no market for Perez, I’m wondering if the Mets sign Lowe whether they’d seriously entertain the notion of re-signing Perez too.

    Pretty solid rotation if they did that.

    What do you think JD? And what do you think of Lowe? Some people here think that a guy who pitches 200+ innings every year and pitches to a 3.50 ERA isn’t good, particularly to round out a rotation that already has an ace, so I’m curious of what you think.

  4. I dont think they missed out. Boras will give the Mets a chance to top Atlantas offer. If its too pricey they can move on. Plenty of other options out there.

  5. JD (2) I disagree that Maine and pelfry are back end pitchers:
    Maine 2007 – 15-10 3.91 191 IP 75 bb 180k
    Pelfry 2008- 13-11 3.72 200 IP 64 bb 110k

    I am using Maines 2007 numbers because after a fine start, his numbers were skewed by injury later last year. I would say these numbers are similar to what Lowe puts up. Lowe is a very good 2 pitcher everyone agrees. Another plus is both of these guys are still young and improving, while Lowe is not going to get any better and will see a decline soon as he is past his prime.

  6. (2) Delcos: I agree he be or will soon be a back end guy. Therefore, what is the big deal whether he comes or not.

    (4/5): Sadecki: I agree with you on Pelfrey. Maine mebbe. He had a great start in ’07 but in 2nd half was average.
    Lowe you are right about. I’m voting for you as pres of the wolf pack.

    (3) 1. No one thought CC would come here. We all knew Freddy was too cheap to pay for 2 stars.
    2. Why do you have to run to Dad for help one more time. Dad already said your boy is a back ender. I gues its the paper mache hurting your upstairs. We all know you blew it when you said CC in’t half the pitcher Johan is. Just becaue he is not a Met does not mean he is not just as good as a Met.
    3. Why do you think your boy Lowe will not age?. Did he find the new fountain of youth that is not tested for yet?
    4. The minute Lowe signs not here you will turn on him…. or will it be 2?

  7. JD/Dad- What is your opinion on who is a better pitcher, Johan or CC??

    I was looking at their nos.:

    CC: 117-73 (.616) 3.66 ERA, 121 ERA+, 7.56 k/9, 2.83 bb/9, 8.36 h/9, 1.24 WHIP

    Johan: 109-51 (.681) 3.11 ERA, 144 ERA+, 9.26 k/9, 2.49 bb/9, 7.43 h/9 1.10 WHIP

    CC was a starter from his first season in ’01, since Johan became a full-time starter in ’04, he’s even better:

    86-39 (.688) 2.82 ERA, 157 ERA+, 9.33 k/9, 2.05 bb/9, 7.15 h/9, 1.04 WHIP

    CC Sabathia is a guy I’d take on my team any day. He’s nowhere NEAR the pitcher Johan Santana is.

  8. Ray (5): When you look at their 2008 numbers, they are the stuff of a No. 4 or No. 5 starter. That’s not what they expect this year, but in the big picture that’s what the numbers said.-JD

  9. “If that’s the case, can’t you just see them bringing back Pedro Martinez and having the same rotation as last season?”

    John – could that have been Omar’s plan all along?

  10. John (9) Is that so? then lets just use Pelfrys numbers since he was healthy all year. Lets see how he compares to pitchers on a World Champion staff-the ever lovin Phillies. Their no.2 is Myers what were his stats last year you ask? 10-13 4.55. Moyer had a great year- his ERA? same as big pelf, who didnt really find himself until mid-season. Staying in the division, besides Hudson, who is now the ace by default, who else comes close to pelfry as a number 2 starter? when you look at those staffs you may be surprised. There arent too many Koosmans or Darlings out there.

  11. The problem with Boras clients is you only know one thing. They want the biggest paycheck.
    I know free agency is all about the money, but I hate the idea of paying someone big money who really does not want to be on your team.
    Many other agents will at least hint when their client does not want to play for a team. Not with Boras.
    This is the type of guy who could destroy team chemistry.
    I know many say chemistry is overblown, but Lowe and Boras are making me nervous only in the sense that he really does not want to be a Met.
    What happens is he signs and has a bad April. The fans at Citi could make him miserable to the point that he may quit on the team.

  12. John, will Omar see the light of day here please, forget throwing 12 mil. a year at a mediocre starter like Lowe. I’d rather they go with the trio of Niese, Pedro, and Redding to compete for the last 2 spots in the rotation, and throw the money at an upgrade at corner outfield (I prefer Adam Dunn)

  13. Chiti (6) Thank you for your support. Don’t forget to vote early and vote often !

  14. (13) Flatbush- Lowe is certainly no ace…not even close. But when did a a guy who averages about 13-15 wins, throws 200+ innings and has a mid-3 ERA “mediocre?”

    Definitely shouldn’t overpay for him, but I cannot believe you would think a rotation filled out by Pedro, Niese and Redding would work.

  15. I sure hope that they blew it with Lowe, to be honest. Lowe hardly deserves the money he’s asking for – he really doesn’t deserve $12M a year either. To me, 3/36 is far overpaying for a soon to be 36-year old. He’s a very good pitcher, but in the post amphetamine, post steroid world, 36 year olds experience a rather rapid decline. Imagine if we go to four years for Lowe and we can’t afford a 27 year old free agent named Mike Pelfrey because we have another geriatric case on the injured list.

    The Mets should not repeat the mistakes they made in the past. If they want a #3 pitcher, they should pick up Oliver Perez or Randy Wolf. Who honestly believes that a 39 year old Lowe will be better than a 30 year old Perez or a 34 year old Wolf?

    On a separate note, the Mets should consider using their money to buy low (not Lowe) right now. There are a lot of bargains out there that the Mets should be capitalizing on. Adam Dunn will be cheap and won’t cost a draft pick, it looks like Orlando Hudson’s market is very thin, Bobby Abreu will have to settle for a short-term deal, Ben Sheets appears to have a dry market, Orlando Cabrera might cost next to nothing (and would look good at 2B and bats righty). The Mets, instead of dropping 15M on Lowe, could pick up two of these guys on excellent deals.

    I would much rather pick up, say, Redding, Sheets, and Cabrera or Dunn than just Lowe.

  16. Lowe is the best pitcher left on the market. That is why we are targeting him.

    Are there better pitchers? Sure. Just not free agent pitchers. Sheets has better stuff but is injured. OP has better stuff but is not a better pitcher.

    I would sign Lowe at 12 per and also Wolf and Redding. Or Sheets. All cheap, which in this market is really what they are really worth, not the inflated prices of the last 3 years.

    If we lose out on him because Atl overpays so be it, we can get the next pitchers on the list which includes OP unless his agent overplays his hand. The last time Atl overpaid for a pitcher he didnt play for them. I am thinking Mike Hampton.

    I am cool with the competition from Atl, it’ll all work out. We have the resources in this market to put together a nice team.

  17. Isn’t Dunn a lefty? Do we need another lefty on this team? I thought we wanted a righthanded bat? Preferably one who doesnt strike out 200 times a game.

  18. Flatbush (13) and j_k (16) Finally others who see age as a detriment in signing FAs.
    Well now we have this Nat. A guy on a hideou team won almost as many game as the great Lowe. Good job Minaya. now stay away from the Lowe guy.

  19. for all the people who make comments about Lowe’s age. Yes he is 35 he may be pass his peck prime. But I do think there are just a few Pitchers who were still very good pitchers not great but still good. Some of them the Mets have faced this past season and for many seasons. Jamie Moyer, John Smoltz, Tom Glavin,Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina,Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson. He is still a very effective pitcher. I think that the three year deal with the option for a fourth would not be that bad a deal even if we go for say 14.5 mil per year. One additional arm to consider for the Pen would be Mark Mulder.

    Yes Ollie is younger but for him to get a lot better may take an other two years even three years. This could be quicker with a very controlled catcher who with keep a pitcher focused when he sees he is having problems. But also being around Santana another year could also help him as well. Because I don’t think Ollie will ever be a great pitcher good yes.

  20. Dave, yes Dunn strikes out alot, but he also walked 122 times, and had an OBP of .386 and and an OBPS of .899, with 40 Hr’s and 100 RBI. He would also be excellent protection against Delgado’s skills seriously eroding. I just don’t think we have enough pop at the corner outfield positions, and on the corners overall unless Delgado continues his second half resurgence. I’m a believer that Niese could easily win 10-15 games out of the 5th spot and would hate to see him get blocked at AAA

  21. (20) Good post. Great point! Good deal!
    Redding is da man!
    (21) The list that goes the other way is much much longer.

  22. Flatbush

    How much is Dunn asking for? I like the 40 dont like the K’s, the BB are good,but if you want him for protection BB dont do much not if you have someone who hits into DP behind him. I generally don’t like all or nothing hitters.

    I know someone mentioned Abreu is not a stellar defensive OF, but he did hit 300 and has a respectable bat with a good amt of RBI’s.

  23. Dunn is coming off a 2 year $18 mil. deal, in today’s economy with so many free agents
    left out there and with so few teams having cash to pay them, it’s not a stretch that he could be had on a short deal at about the same dollars. i’m assuming the longer this goes on, both the years and dollars it would take to get him continue to drop. Even at 9M per year, you’re saving around 5M
    from what it’s going to take to land Lowe, and at probably 2 years less of a commitment
    (Lowe will get 4 years from someone and probably in the area of 14M per for a total of a 56M commitment) Now that Boras has two teams in the same division playing for Lowe, it makes no sense to get into a crazy bidding war for his services given that he’s probably on the downside, or approaching it shortly. Don’t get me wrong, I like Lowe, alot in years 1 and 2, alot less in years 3 and 4 of that potential contract. let’s face it, he’s not Johan, so put the checkbook back in your pocket on this one Omar. Too much potential for downside here (potentially we could owe the guy another 25M for the last 2 years of his deal, and have to keep throwing him while at the same time retarding the development of a young pitcher, whether that pitcher is Niese or not.

  24. ….Abreu is a nice player as well. However, he is 34 while Dunn is still only 29 and still near his prime. Doesn’t it scare anyone else that if Delgado plays to his 2008 first half numbers instead of his second half, they are just too weak at the corners. How confident are you that Church will return to form after his concussions?? I love Church, but figure that’s 50/50 at best. And what of Tatis?? Can he repeat last years miracle?? Or will he remind us of why he was out of baseball for a couple of years. I like Murphy as well, but he doesn’t project the pop you want from a corner outfielder on a contending team.

  25. Happy news for Chiti: Rosenthal on Fox says the Braves are “all over” Lowe and Mets are doubtful to sign him. The only hangup is the forth year which Boras wants guaranteed. Braves also signed a Japanese pitcher to fill out thier rotation.

  26. (27) Ray- If that’s the case, then move on to Perez or Wolf. I’d like to see Lowe here, but never for four guaranteed years and really nothing more than 3/42.

    I guess the Braves could jump their offer to $15mm/year because of the way their offseason has gone, but if Derek Lowe wants to play for a team that won 72 games last year…bye-bye.

  27. (27) Saedecki: Go back two years… BARRY ZITO…. The blog and the posters were demanding the great Barry Zito and Minaya was playing his same game he plays every Winter. He lot that one…. Think anyone misses Barry Zito in NY? This new guy Lowe is the 08-09 version of Barry Zito. Maybe not to the extreme collapse, but he’s Boras’ toy now that Teixeira is signed.
    paper mache… You posat one place that wins/losses don’t matter and then use wins as a reason not to play for Atlanta. What’s wrong man… The scrutiny of your frailties really impacting you that much? I’ll lay off you man, I’d hate to see that head explode in the new rip off field…. Calm down…. We all know you ain’t God. Relax…. We’ll have a full roster….. Be cool…. You don’t have the guts to go to PNC so those evil Phillies won’t beat you up….. Be happy…. Maybe I’m wrong and jeffy boy will lower the price of hot dogs by not getting this toad you love so much….

  28. Well genious, W/L for pitchers is meaningless. I think everyone except you knew that. It’s actually fairly basic and common knowledge of people on that know the game, ie-everyone on this blog save you. See, what is important is peripheral stats. ERA, ERA+, innings pitched, WHIP and team w/l record in said pitcher’s starts…or were you as impressed with Steve Trachsel’s 15-8, 4.97 season in ’06 as I was.

    And when did Pittsburgh move their stadium to Philadelphia?? Did they use a massive crane? One of those helicopters that lifts things? Or did they disassemble it and take it over by truck?

    Too, too easy.

  29. Well empty head… Unlike you I know I’m not God so I made a booboo, something you do in every post you ever made, but are too arrogant, too unpatriotic and too dispicable to even know… so you’ll get beaten in Pittsburgh As obnoxious as you are you’d be beaten in PNC as well as Citizen’s… You’d even be beaten up in KC.
    So it doesn’t matter.
    Trachsel…. Every pathetic fantasy freak uses him You are so primitive. I heard Bud Selig is going to decide who goes to the playoffs based on WHIP. Hooray. Who cares about winning anymore… Sorry emty head, wins matter, unles you are in fantasy island.
    PS: Since wins don’t matter are you going to the Giant game next week. What, they can’t play, because they lost, no that can’t be, wins don’t matter anymore. Just ask empty paper head.

    Hey Sadecki, you be having as much fun as me… Living in the desert are you a Card fan? I guess I’ll root for them next week even tho I hear from paper head that the Giants play next week because they won some peripheral stats.

  30. Ray…please, I know you enjoy the banter, but you gotta help me here. Or JD or Dave.

    Can someone explain to pinhead that wins for pitchers is what matters little.

    You’re right, W/L for team’s don’t matter…that’s exactly what I mean. I loved the 59-103 season of 1993 as opposed to the 108-54 season of 1986.

    You either are:

    A) extremely dumb

    or

    B) think everyone else on here is dumb to think that what you’re saying actually makes me look like the one who knows nothing

  31. The problem is everyone one is both right and wrong on Lowe.
    He will make this team much better in 2009 and maybe 2010.
    Then he most likely will crash and burn and be a expensive dead weight for 2 years.
    If signing Lowe would guarantee a World Series appearance in 2009 than the Mets should just get it done.
    But will it ?
    Does he really want to play for the Mets ?
    I get the feeling if he signs with the Mets for less money than he really wanted he will be a lousy team mate because he will resent not being paid what he thinks he is worth.
    If this is the case than they need to walk away.
    Let him be a problem somewhere else.

  32. Chiti, I am shocked about the cards. Ive been living here 15 years and I never paid attention to them because Im a Jets fan and thats pain enough. Go Cardinals !!

  33. Sadecki: I don’t blame you for ignoring the Cards! But that Larry Fitzgerald is the real deal…..
    The Giants missed Burris more than I thought and the Jets missed Pennington more than they thought.
    Pelham: The Mets “strategy” this Winter for starters was very strange. In ’06-07 Minaya spent all his time on the perceived best pitcher and fortunately lost Zito, but ignored other guys and got nobody. In 07-08 he goes after the best (albeit not an FA) and he wins. This Winter his strategy was to go after the 3rd best? and then he has to deal with Boras who blows this guy up to be a HoFer. I agree with you tho. If you think the guy puts you over the top you get him, no matter the cost, otherwise you stop. If Omar thinks the other guys put him over the top why is he bothering with Lowe? It seems all he is doing now is filling a roster of starters no matter who or how talented.
    paperweight: You are so smart and convincing, and I was so saddened by the fact that your pleas for help since you cannopt defend any possition you make, that I wrote the Hall of Fame a letter today showing them your position about starting pitchers and asking them to replace all the plaques of the starters because they all emphasize the guy’s WINS and LOSSES, and they sent back a note saying you are truly without intellect or knowledge of the game. But in support of youas a fan of baseball, albeit a sad one, and as a mascot, again albeit not a very good one, they will give Anthony Young an honorary vote for the Hall today to make you feel better.

  34. Giants

    Eli had a bad game and I have no idea why they didnt run Jacobs down their throat. Stupid game.

  35. Lowe I want Lowe on a 2 year deal. I will give him 3 but assume he will be less effective year 3. They can deal him that year or drop him down the rotation.

    It seems that he is really insulted and the Braves may overpay.

    That is fine. We can go get Ollie for 3/30.