Should they say goodbye to Ollie?

PEREZ: Should the Mets let him walk away?

PEREZ: Should the Mets let him walk away?

There are some of you who think I don’t care for Oliver Perez. Not true. I like the guy. I just don’t like watching him pitch on the days when Coin Flip lands on tails.

That said, he’s 27, lefthanded, and can throw the hell out of the ball. He made some progress this year with a modified delivery. Those days when he’s on, well, he’s pretty special to watch and worth keeping.

On those other days, well ….

The Mets say they’d like him back, but with a commitment toward going after Lowe and possibly setting up  Niese in the fifth spot, where does that leave Perez? Obviously, they aren’t optimistic.

I know he wants five years, and from $12 million to $15 million has been speculated. That’s a lot for somebody with great stuff but mediocre numbers.

So, should they cut their ties with OP or try to keep him.

64 thoughts on “Should they say goodbye to Ollie?

  1. Personally speaking, I get the feeling that whoever loses out on AJ Burnett (Sox/Yanks) will nab Derek Lowe. I think he would take less to go back to the Sox and I think the Yankees would offer him four guaranteed years…I’m not sure the Mets will do that again with another older player.

    For Perez, I think he ends up coming back to NY for a 4-year deal. Based on what Ryan Dempster received and the bidding wars that will take place for Burnett/Lowe, there is no way OP won’t get four years from somebody. But because the Mets have seen what he can (and can’t) do, I think there is a familiarity that works in their favor, and I don’t mean him taking a discount.

    Even if Burnett gets five years, it is going to be from only the Yankees or Red Sox…and that is ultimately a stupid, stupid move for a guy who’s never healthy and 31 years old.

    Boras will use that 5-year deal to drive the price up for OP, but based on my opinion (that only the Yanks/Red Sox will give Burnett five years), there isn’t another team out there who will do it, so then it’s the Mets against everyone else in terms of dollar value.

    If they offer him 4/55, I think he’d take it. But all bets are off if some other team (Rangers?) with money offers more per year.

    Unless the Mets don’t want him back and refuse to go four years…I get the feeling he’ll be back because I think don’t think they’ll get Lowe (and won’t go to four years for a 36 y/o) and Jon Garland at $35-$40mm for three years does nothing to the rotation, IMO.

    He’s a younger and slightly better version of Steve Trachsel.

  2. I think the Dempster contract is a good barometer. Even though Ollie is left handed, he isn’t that much better than Dempster if he is at all. I would like him back, but i’m not sure he is worth 75 mil for 5 like I thought a few weeks ago. By the way according to FAN this morning, there was a report that the Padres called the Yankees about Peavy and said they didn’t have to include Hughes in a trade. Why aren’t the Mets getting involved then?

  3. Steve-Peavy has TOTAL control over where he can or can’t go. All of this talk about the Yankees is because that piss-ant team is always talked about.

    It’s pretty common knowledge that he wants no part of NY and if he did OK a trade here, it would be ONLY to the Yankees because they’d extend him to some ridiculous contract, which the Mets wouldn’t do.

  4. BTW, that last part about extending him is my own opinion, not something I read.

    The “not liking NY” part is true, though.

  5. OK – You’ve got a 27 year old left handed pitcher who can ‘throw the hell out of the ball’ – I think I’d keep him.

  6. Annie-Because of what he’s “done” on the big stage here in NY, I think he’ll end up getting slightly more than Dempster.

    Like I said, 4/55 is probably the area where he’ll end up, at least from the Mets perspective. I know they don’t like more than 3-year deals for pitchers (Santana excepted), but they’re going to get completely shut out of the FA market if they stick to that. Then they’d have to hope for a trade or sign a lower-level guy and pass him off as worthy.

    4/55…4/60 is a bit ridiculous, IMO.

  7. metsman8669 (6)

    I’m not going to guess at the $$$ with these deals. I’m still wondering if the name “Citi Field” will be on the wall next Spring.

    I do love left handed pitchers (I saw Koufax) and so I’d never turn one away. They’ve got a sense of style to their game.

  8. The only way I can justify not re-signing Opie is if some other team (like metsman8669 suggested Texas above) makes a ridiculous offer. He may not be worth a Dempster-like contract at first, he may never be worth it, but he’s a young lefty who throws hard and knows what it’s like to pitch in NYC, and I think it’s a risk worth taking.

  9. Gravedigger-Completely agree. I’m very, very pessimistic about them actually obtaining Derek Lowe.

    With the Yankees and the Red Sox in on him, I just don’t see it happening.

  10. While metsman is pessimistic about not getting Lowe, I hope his pessimism is warranted because not signing Lowe would please me no end. Lowe is another example of a guy who’s had his career aand looks to Omar Minaya to pay him for what he will not be able to do much longer. The signing of Lowe would demonstrate one more time that Omar doesn’t believe that age has meaning and the one’s who suffer for his illusions are Met fans.
    The best thing that could happen to this team would be if Boras finds OP is not getting good offers so he takes the Mets arbitration offer, in the hopes that the economy bodes better for his client next year.

  11. FYI – Omar Minaya is out of his office – he’s in the hospital having his knee scoped.

  12. If Omar is put under for surgery will this mean Tony Bernazard will be acting GM until he is awake.

  13. (10)Again with Omar. If Omar is such a bad GM, why are the other two biggest revenue teams in baseball going after Lowe too?

    Two teams who are also going to be bidding up to five years for AJ Burnett.

    Yeah, Omar is the worst GM out there.

  14. Considering what is out there, a 4/55 deal which is 13 3/4 for OP is fine with me.

    I do not know if he is worth that, but he can be very good and he can be AAA material in the same week.

    I would rather offer something like 3/13 or 4/12 and work from there early and be done with it. I do not want to wait, but his agent will say otherwise.

    I would also make offers to what are considered comparable pitchers and see what happens.

    We should try and get the deals done sooner rather than later. We are not talking Johan like last year where we were willing to go long and high and waiting for others’ to show they were not players.

    There are other players and as the chips fall off the table we will get more desperate.

  15. 100% in agreement Dave. The status of the pitching market is such that you have to overpay, no questions asked.

    If you offered him the 4/55 deal right now, he would turn it down, but that’s just because that is the way Boras works.

    I wouldn’t be shocked, but I would be surprised if anyone offers him a 4-year deal that averages $15mm/season.

    That’s why I think, if the Mets do want him back, they’ll probably get him.

  16. AFTER we get a pitcher to back up Johan,Pelf,Maine we can dawdle and figure out who is #5. I don’t want to give it to Niese. I think one of the guys down there will come up this year – perhaps Vargas, but we need to do the relief thing too.

    Get it done, get it done early. I would sign Pedro for a low $ one year incentive laden deal but strictly for #5. If he falters we will have options and it won’t hurt us that much performance or $$ wise.

  17. metsman8669 the pitching market has been the same for at least 3 years now. Pitchers are way overpaid.

    Deal with it. We have the money. Go after who you want but do it early. What is a million or so among friends? Especially if you can get what you want rather than settle for something not as good?

    Penny wise pound foolish as Ben used to say.

  18. (13) Again defending Omar. If Omar is such a great GM, why have his teams managed to reach the playoffs all of one time? Why have the GMs of the Red Sox and the Yankees managed to make the playoffs numerous times? Why have the Phillies, with a much smaller payroll, and a GM who is too old to understand the modern world made the playoffs twice during Omar’s tenure?
    Yeah, Omar is the best; especially for fans that accept chokiing, and finishing almost in the money with regularity.

  19. I know one thing this off season is shaping up much like last year with Omar letting the field come to him on one position. Last year it was Johan this years its a closer…can this guy multi task im already getting fustrated

  20. Again defending Omar because you blame him for EVERYTHING.

    Are you that stupid? Who said I liked the guy? I’d defend almost anyone if someone said something to me that made zero sense on a daily basis.

    I guess Omar is blamed for 4 putrid weeks of baseball but he had nothing to do with the 11 total months of baseball before it.

  21. Two years in a row of the same putrid baseball in the same four weeks tells you, you need to do something in my book

  22. (20) Ed-The difference is the amount of closers who are available. Not saying they are all fits in NY, but Hoffman, K-Rod, Fuentes and Wood are available via FA. Plus you have Jenks, Putz, Valverde and Street who have been mentioned as being available via trade.

    That’s 8 closers and the Mets are the biggest fish in the pond for a team that needs one.

    I’m ok with Minaya sitting back for this, but he needs to jump in with both feet in terms of middle relief and starting pitching. He can’t wait on that.

  23. Im fine on him sitting back on a closer but while he waits how about addressing other things… it like he has a list and cant go past an item unless its chekced off..

  24. (ed) 100% agree with you. I mean, I’m not going to bash him or any other GM because it’s less than a week since FAs were free to talk $$ to other teams…but I don’t want him sitting on his hands.

    I’d like to start at least hearing RUMBLINGS of meetings or $$ he’s planning on offering.

  25. Agreed other teams made some nice trades and minor league signings and most have one or two rumblings circulating the Mets are stuck in the K Rod saga only…

  26. Ed-Big winter for Minaya. I’ve given him the benefit of the doubt despite moves that have backfired. However, what made the Mets so good in ’06 was the outskirts of the core guys.

    He needs to be creative in a trade or two this winter to upgrade the offense. Set the FA money aside for the big-time pitching (and maybe a trade for a reliever).

    But the offensive side cannot be neglected. The lineup drops off to precipitously after the no. 6 guy (assuming it’s Reyes, no 2, Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Church).

  27. Harry (13) If you want to take a look at the best GM in baseball, look no further than Boston. Theo is the man. Did you see the steal he made today? A superfluous part in Coco Crisp for a young power pitcher Ramon Ramirez who is still under team control for another 3 to 4 years.

  28. ed
    How can you say this off season is shaping up like the last 2. Exactly one FA has signed, Jeremy Affeldt. Until Sabathia signs nothing is going to happen with the other big name starters. I bet then everything will become fast and furious.

    Annie: I was picturing Bernazard running around like Al Haig screaming I’m in charge.

  29. Scott- All I said was shaping up like last…I’m referring to how many times its been reported that were focused on closers and wont look elsewhere until that priority is filled…..meanwhile other teams are reported to be looking into multiple players at multiple positions….It’s like there sitting in a room for 8 hrs a day going Fuentes or K rod…K rod or Fuentes…whats scary to me is thats exactly what they did last year focused on one player….One signing but several trades

  30. Steve,

    How can we play in this game? Do we have a CF on this team who hits 280 can steal some bases and who we do not want?

    That guy Ramirez looks like he could help our team, but what will we give up to get him? We have no depth.

    A comparable player for us would be Tatis who is not a CF and is old and had a career year.

    We could always give up Church or Murphy perhaps?

  31. edfever (33)

    Fair enough, who do we need to give up? How is his D? Church’s D is pretty good.

    I am assuming Seattle wants someone young, I guess we get rid of FMart + others?

  32. I think it’s just my expectations …. after two years of bad sept. I expected Omar to come out of the gates runner not precautious…. By now i thought he’d have already brought in a minor league signing or two say Hennessey who went to the O’s and Graffanino and at least one trade by now….

  33. Ibanez is absolutely awful defensively in fact many consider him a candidate for DH….what he brings is a .300 BA everyday for 162 games not streaky ness and a great clubhouse leader….

  34. The Crisp trade says more about how desperate the Royals are to go from being a very bad team to one that is mediocre. Good GM’s always prey on team that are desperate.
    The Royals are one desperate team.

  35. I think I’ll pass.

    If I want a DH I would get a 1B.

    Church plays good D and has a good arm. That saves runs. Plus we would need to give up someone who we need to get him.

    Which would presumably mean a trade of Church for a reliever?

    I don’t know. Seems like a rob Peter to pay Paul type of thing.

  36. Omar’s looking for strikeout pithcers..why maybe he’s compromising defense for offense what if Church is moved for say Dye RF and Ibanez is signed to replace Church’s lefty bat …then you get older and weaken your defense while having an offense to compete with the Phillies

  37. The Mets can keep up with the Phillies offensively. They tied for second in the NL in runs scored last year at 799.

    The problem is the Mets are top heavy, whereas in 2006, the lineup was 8-deep because of Valentin’s contributions.

    Right now, at best, they are 6-deep.

  38. And to further my above point, a key reason for NY missing the postseason the last two years that is often overlooked in favor of the bullpen and no killer instinct is the offense.

    Yes, it can score a ton of runs on any given night, but when some of the core guys slump at the same time…nighty-night.

  39. 31 (Dave) Crisp has been a shell of his former self the past 3 years. He has been an ok player and that’s about it. Not to say that the Mets necessarily have the player, but it’s because Epstein is such a great GM, that he had a superfluous part to trade for someone that can be a very good set up man.

  40. (40) Metsman, all depending upon how Delgado does this year, this team might be only 3 deep offensively. Murphy/Tatis/Church/Castillo/Schneider etc are hardly givens offensively.

  41. Unless Church has severe problems stemming from his concussion, he’s a solid hitter. He’s probably not the guy he was in April-early May, but I think a .280 20-25 85-90 season is reasonable, if he’s given 550 ABs.

    Delgado, I think, will take a step back from last year, but you can’t sit here and say he’s a question mark after a .271 38 115 season. I’d say the average dips as does the power and RBI, but he’ll still be around 30 and 100 which is more than adequate.

    They need one more guy…preferably a RH, and I think the lineup would be similar to ’06, assuming others do what they normally do.

  42. (41) And don’t forget Steve, that Epstein is the one who SIGNED Crisp to that pretty ridiculous extension after trading for him.

    Epstein, however, is a fantastic GM.

  43. Scott (29) Absolutely – I can visualize that scene – Haig was still operating on a military basis. Wonder what kind of deals Tony could or would make while Omar was under???

  44. edfever (39)

    I prefer Defense. Offense will come and go. Solid D will save you all the time. We have a lot of fly ball pitchers. The need someone who wont have adventures in the field and who throw to the right base.

  45. (45) One of the attributes that makes Theo a great GM, as he demonstrates by trading away Crisp for a valuable addition, is that he acknowledges (at least to himself) and seeks to correct his mistakes.

  46. Steve(42) I don’t know Coco. I know he was benched. But he still hit 280 and had 20 sb and had other numbers that were ok. He can still play CF for you. Maybe he is overpaid and maybe they have a better player, but except for our 2 OF starters and perhaps Murphy who I do not want to trade, we do not have comparable players on the major league roster to trade for that young reliever.

    I know that is essentially what you said, but still Coco is not a total waste..

  47. (48) I don’t know how Omar feels about his mistakes, but we don’t have a former starter who has some value that we want to get rid of.

    That means Castillo. He is a former starter, but at this point has no value so you can’t really trade him.

  48. Anyone think Vargas has a shot at the rotation next year? He pitched well in the minors last year and is doing well in winter league.

    http://gothambaseballmagazine.com/mets/afl—prospect-watch.html

    P – Jason Vargas : Recovering from hip surgery, Jason Vargas looked in mid-season form. The AFL’s Pitcher of the Week for Week 3, Vargas looked like a man among boys. Scouts told me that his command and his fast ball looked better than it did prior to his injury. I was also told that because of the way Vargas has been pitching in the AFL, the Mets may not look to retain free-agent Oliver Perez. Vargas is a pitcher many Mets fans should keep an eye on this off season.

  49. Steve (28) Yes I saw the trade. Theo got money off the table and he improved his bullpen. Why? Because he developed a farm system, and now he can make moves from strength vice desperation.
    edfever (39). If Minaya makes the moves you mention you better not let Beltran ever steal because he’s gonna need those legs in the outfield.
    metsman (41) You can make that statement about every team. I’m inPa and until Howard got insane in Sept the press was pounding the Phils for the smae thing.

  50. Annie (#7) makes a great point folks. With CitiBank hovering at $6 per share and the loss of well over $100 billion in market share the last 2 months, this bank may not make it to the end of the year let alone opening day 2009.

  51. As for whether or not they should say bye to Oliver Perez?
    Ehh… it depends. Who can they sign? Who’s available? What is he realistically asking for?
    At the end of the day him being a 27 year old lefty is very nice.

  52. (51) Dave-not responding to you but the caption you posted…Vargas IS a man among boys in the AFL. Most of those guys are late teens, early 20s. He’s three months shy of 26.

    I think Vargas still has upside, but I don’t quite get the “let Perez walk” part. Because a guy looks good in the AFL??

    Huh?

  53. In my opinion you don’t want to depend/rely on guys like Niese and Jason Vargas. You want those guys as depth.
    Injuries are bound to happen and take place and I’d rather those guys be the backup plans rather than the actual plan.

  54. metsman8669 (55)

    I agree. Letting go of OP because of Vargas is stupid.

    My point with the post was Vargas seemed to do very well in the minors after a while. He followed up with a nice winter ball showing.

    To me if we want to look in the minors for help he seems to be a better option than Niese or the others right now. Not that Niese or Parnell may not have better upsides, but for next spring he may be the first guy up.

  55. Dave-Seems that whoever wrote that tidbit about Vargas got their facts mixed up. Vargas missed the entire season due to a labrum tear in his hip and had surgery.

  56. I would like to have Ollie back. The money that they are talking for Lowe and AJ seem to be on the high side. Ollie is younger and has had some success for the Mets. Considering the choices that are out in the open market Ollie to me seems like the best fit. If I had to predict AJ to the yanks and Lowe to the Sox.

  57. (50,51) No defense of Omar necessary, I’m a fan of his overall work here. Though I consider the next 11 months somewhat make or break for Omar, in this case I was simply praising Theo Epstein, not taking a veiled shot at Minaya. Basically if Castillo improves enough to have trade value, there is no need to trade him.

    RE: Vargas, IMO he’s in the rotation only if a lot of things go wrong. Ideally he’s at AAA and we only see him for one turn if someone gets a blister. If Vargas should somehow become a viable major league pitcher for the Mets this year or next, it certainly helps Omar, you know what I’m sayin’?

  58. (60)Love the “you know what I’m sayin” LOL

    I agree on Vargas. He may just end up being crap, but he had a very solid rookie campaign at the age of 22 and he’s not even 26 yet with little mileage on that arm. Plus he’s LH, so you never know.

    That trade on the surface wasn’t bad. It’s just unfortunate (for the Mets) that Lindstrom turned out to be a pretty good reliever, but when that deal was made after ’06, the Mets problems were in the rotation, not the bullpen…so it’s not really fair to blame Minaya for trading two minor league relievers for two minor league (one with MLB experience) starters.

  59. For signing El Duque to an extension of two years. For relying on Moises Alou to stay healthy and not having a viable backup plan. For relying on Duaner Sanchez to immediately come back off surgery and missing over a year without skipping a beat.

    I don’t know how many times we have to go through this. Omar Minaya traded RELIEVERS from the minor leagues, one of which was given opportunity after opportunity after opportunity in NY over the ’05-’06 season.

    For some reason, you’re hung up on Matt Lindstrom, Heath Bell and Brian Bannister as if the first two are the second coming of Mariano Rivera and the third is the next Greg Maddux.

    The trades have not worked out. It happens. He didn’t deal away depth. He dealt away from a position of strength, both in the minors and in the majors, because the bullpen was rock-solid in ’06 and pretty effective in ’07 until the toll of too many innings took effect.

    I’m rationalizing why he made the deals he made. I didn’t they say they were good ones. You just keep coming up with the same drivel about Bell, Lindstrom, Bannister, blah, blah, blah. And by the way, most effective relievers in the majors are guys who came up THROUGH the minors as starters. Always has been that way.

    And do you know why there is a lack of depth? It’s because the Mets signed Pedro, Beltran and Wagner over the course of two straight offseasons. That’s 3 1st rounders lost.