Mets Chat Room: Gathering around the Hot Stove

What's on your mind?

What's on your mind?

Pat Burrell turned down $22 million over two years from Philadelphia and CC Sabathia is about to turn down over $100 million from Milwaukee.

All signs are pointing toward the Yankees getting Sabathia. They don’t appear to have a ceiling. The same can’t be said about the Mets. They’ll have money coming off the books with Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez and Moises Alou going, but they’ll be giving raises to David Wright and Jose Reyes.

Their payroll last year was $143 million, and I don’t see it going much higher.

We can discuss all of that tonight.

121 thoughts on “Mets Chat Room: Gathering around the Hot Stove

  1. My first thought in hearing CC Sabathia would turn down over $100 million from Milwaukee, is that will prime the pump for Oliver Perez.-JD

  2. Not feeling confident about this off-season….Omar hasn’t signed a decent free agent starter since Pedro, last year the only reliever brought in was matt wise and there sooo worried about eating Castillo’s contract….

    couple that with the spending money down to 26mil after raises and I’m feeling like another year of cheap fixes…

    This is a NY organization with a new stadium, tv network, sponsors and a radio deal they should be able to raise salary and not hold….

  3. If I’m Philly I forget Burrell and go after Manny. Might as well pay a little extra for the legitness that is Manny Ramirez.

    In 2007 the Mets were the second most profitable team according to Forbes. I don’t expect ANY less from their 2008 financial performance with playoff potential and Johan Santana. With that said the Mets have about $30 million coming off the books for the 2009 season. That’s enough for I guess two difference makers from free agency. With the money to play with, the new stadium, the expectations, the failure of 2008, and other intangibles, I’d personally would be OFFENDED if the Mets didn’t actually go higher on than the $143 million of 2008′s payroll.
    We all know Omar likes to leave a little in the bank for mid season “flexibility” but that didn’t matter at all during the deadline when we clearly needed someone.

  4. Well he’s flexible, so if he somehow doesn’t do a decent job as a starter, he can go to the bullpen. Much like Lowe but maybe cheaper?

  5. Roy (4): Yes, Dempster is worth taking a look at. He’ll cost something, but not as much as Perez.-JD

  6. 17-3 with a mid three ERA and a 34-35 save year under his belt as well as paying him to leave Chicago I’m thinking he might be more expensive

  7. JD- this idea of the mets looking to up grade the catcher just wont go away whats your take on it – seems like spending time unnecessarily

  8. Ed (5): Equating anybody to Pavano isn’t a nice thing to say. I don’t know if he’s that low on the totem pole.-JD

  9. ed (8): I’m thinking Perez will be $75 to $80 million, but possibly higher if Sabathia scores as big as expected.-JD

  10. ed (2): Maybe he hasn’t (technically) signed a “decent” FA SP since Pedro, but the contract given to Santana certainly wasn’y exactly pinching pennies.

    And if he can get guys like John Maine and Ollie without shelling out big bucks, that doesn’t make them worth less than if he had done what his Bronx counterpart has—signing Wright, Pavano, Igawa as FAs.

    It’s who ya got that counts; not how ya got ‘em.

    As for this Winter’s budget, Jeff W said a few weeks ago that he and his father have never vetoed a deal Omar wanted, regardless of cost, and won’t this time around either.

  11. Roy (11): That seems to be a key objective, but his is an impossible contract to unload. The Mets will have to eat a substantial portion of the $18 million. Even so, he’s not young, has an injury history and is coming off a bad year.-JD

  12. My point is there have been plenty of solid FA starters that would have filled out the back end of the rotation that in the past three years Omar has taken a pass on to bring in scrubs…maine, pelfrey and Ollie were on the cheap a NY club with three cogs as inexpensive as they were could have over spent on another pitcher

    I would have rather seen Meche, Lilly, Lohse level pitcher brought in

    Vs…

    Lima, Lawrence, C. Vargas etc….

  13. bill (14): Omar has done better than the Yankees in signing pitching. But, there is still some holes, namely two starters and pretty much an entire bullpen.

    I don’t know what the Mets’ budget will be, but not much more than the $143 million it was last year. Maybe a little north of $150 million.-JD

  14. That makes me want to cry JD. Also what’s more likely, the Mets trading prospects for a closer or trading prospects for a hitter? ( Matt Holliday please)

  15. 75 – 80 seems quite high for Ollie when he is arguably the 6th best pitcher on the market.

  16. ed (16): No question. Lohse would have looked pretty good in the Mets’ rotation. So would Meche and Lilly, and yes, the Mets had their chance. However, in hind sight, it appeared they were waiting out for Santana. Could they have been more aggressive and gotten two of the lower tier FA pitchers? Perhaps.-JD

  17. Roy (18): I would say for a closer, but truth is I don’t think the Mets will do much trading of prospects. My feeling is they’ll spend and try to keep their farm system intact if they can.-JD

  18. JD- I screamed for Lohse until bloggers told me to shut up and he signed almost into spring training – way after the Santana deal- I still believe Omar was told all he was getting was that contract last year it just doesnt make sense any other way and Miche/Lilly were the year before, Wilpons budget just isnt realistic for the market hes in and the increased revenues he’s enjoyed since 2005 on….

  19. JD, it’s becoming an urban legend that somehow Carlos Delgado has “poisoned” the Mets clubhouse and his approach has rubbed off negatively on the rest of the teammates.

    I’m not saying whether I believe it or not since I’m not in the clubhouse and don’t have a leg to stand on in that regard. What are your thoughts on Delgado and his positive/negative effect?

  20. JD(13) who in their right mind would give Ollie 75 Mil? and over what? 5 years?

    I dont think San Diego would be in the market given they are dumping Peavy. Would LA Pay that kind of Money fo rthe enigma? The Yankees have their sights set on the best in breed.

    I’ll put my prediction on Ollie down for 4/52 and that sounds high

  21. JD, not saying you’re wrong because who the hell knows in this day and age, but if Oliver Perez gets $75-$80mm that is ridiculous.

    I know that pitching is at a premium, but I can’t see him getting that much money. Who the hell is going to pay that guy $15-$16mm/year for 4-5 years?

    Personally, I think he maxes out more around $60-$65mm

  22. Mike (24): Manuel swears Delgado wasn’t a bad influence and I would hate to think he dogged it on purpose. It does seem like more than a coincidence he turned it on shortly after Randolph was hired. He has a profound influence on Reyes.-JD

  23. Mike – Ollie has the greatest chance of becoming the worst signing of the off season at those numbers. Who could take 5 years of his skitzo pitching

  24. Heres a non-pitching example- the Mets had a very good offense last year but it also faulted down the stretch for the second time in a row….But it appears instead of spending on a bat there going to bring back the same group including a tatis/murphy platoon in left – they should be able to afford another bat and still revamp the pitching staff

  25. LFXS/Mike (25/26): I’m thinking $15 million a season tops and Boras will want at least five years if history is an indicator.-JD

  26. ed (29): Their offense was good enough to win. As erratic as they were with RISP in scoring position, had their bullpen blown one less game a month (that’s six for the year), they would have been in the playoffs.-JD

  27. ed(30) are these the same rangers that are paying padilla and millwood over 20 mil combined in 2009? once bitten twice shy.

    Astro’s perhaps would be in the market but they are a mess as well and complain about paying Roy Oswalt 13 mil a year.

    After Sliva’s 4/48 last year GM’s will look at the numbers and cringe.

  28. your right or scored four more runs over the last weekend…All I’m saying is entering a season with two 3B as your left field solution when your a large market team doesn’t sound acceptable to me….Dunn in left field this year and then to first next year with F-Mart taking over in left in 2010 sounds like a large market move…Murphy/Tatis as much as I like both as the left field answer to start a season sounds KC ish….

  29. LFXS (34): Every year there are bad contracts. Silva’s contract, as bad as it was, won’t make GM’s run and hide.-JD

  30. Look at the signings the cubs made last year or the Angels and the Dodgers – of course the Red Sox or Yanks ….for once I’d like to see the Mets just go for it …instead of the usual we’ll be looking for trades route…..(ie..on the cheap)

  31. ed(36) The Rangers will have 1/2 their 70 mil payroll tied up in three middle of the road pitchers? That’s painful.

    Better chance they trade Salty for young cheap starters this year.

  32. ed–It’s easy to cherry-pick in hindsight, but there are a lot of guys—Silva, Marquis, Eaton, et al— who were flops, or at least mediocre. And teams signing them are often stuck with Castillo-like deals.

    The Mets now are stockpiled with good-looking young pitching talent that is a year or two away—Niese, Parnell, Antonini, Gee, Holt, Owen, Kunz,et al—and Omar needs to get a SP to replace Perez (if he leaves) and fill in at the bottom (#5) for a year. Or maybe Niese makes it this year.

    Signing mediocrity to clog the rotation with 4-year, $10-mil deals is not the way to build a winner.

  33. Bill i was consistent with my picks and followed them to see how they did… My main three that I trumpeted were lohse, Lilly and Meche…thats not cherry picking thats who I thought they should have signed and they all would have been better then the Figgy’s, knights, Lima that Omar went with….

  34. John (33) Absolutely RIGHT! With all the “deficiencies” people point out, if Wagner didn’t go down with over a month to go, a lot more than 4 saves instead of blows would’ve put the Mets comfortably into first.

  35. After the success the Phils, Angels and Rays had putting young pitchers in the fire and the lack of success of middle of the road signings last year maybe there is a change in philosophy this year.

    And with Peavy on the Market and CC, AJ, DLowe, Dempster, Sheets and Penny out there looking for wrk the middle of the road starters could be holding the bag.

  36. Which comes back to not signing a solid set-up man during the off-season…..Omars inactivity last year cost this team ( and Im an Omar supporter), he’s too smart to think Santana would have solved all there troubles after the tail spin they went into – call me a conspiracy ist but the only thing that makes sense is he was at his cap….Linebrink, Dotel, Riske, there were too many relievers not to sign one single guy….
    And all this were going to be looking into trades sounds much the same….

  37. ed (46): When you look at the blown saves, most of them came on the bridge to the closer.-JD

  38. Agree they needed a solid set-up man when wagner was healthy and then it needed to be a guy who could close if wags wnet down…

    i think Ayala should return he earned another year, Cordero is a FA like to see them sign him as well…

    Not cherry picking Bill I though Linebrink would have bee the perfect fit for that role…

  39. ed(42): I didn’t see your picks a year ago, so I can’t comment on them. But at the start of this season, Omar expected to have Pedro and Duque healthy. They were both under contract, healthy or not, and with the addition of Santana there was no spot for giving a deal to a mediocrity for the kind of $$$/years the guys you mentioned commanded.

    Lohse was with the Twins for 6 years, and 1 in the NL with Cincy/Philly, with a career ERA almost FIVE. His ERAs for ’06 (7.07 in Minny, 4.57 with Cincy) and ’07 (4.62 with Cincy/Philly) were not the stuff that cried out “sign me, sign me”.

    Pitchers with those #s may work out like Kyle did, but they’re not what you build around.

  40. To be fair, Lilly, Meche, and Lohse, all required ALOT more committment both financially and yearly than Lima, Figgueroa, and Chan ho Park.

    Ayala didn’t earn another year. He was pretty bad. He gave up a ton of hits and the his that were out where hit hard.

  41. bill (51): Yeah, if things worked out with Pedro and Duque, they might have had enough to win. That’s why I’m not opposed to bringing back Pedro as the fifth starter.-JD

  42. Love to see the Mets stock up on some relief arms. Codero is someone I’m sure Omar would like to have again. What about Jeremy Affeldt?

  43. I keep hearing that a lot of people saying that the Mets are going to resign Oliver Perez. Do you see that happening?

  44. From what I saw from Ayala with the Mets he got hit hard. Even his outs where hit hard. If the season were a little longer you would have wanted him dead, haha.
    I’d rather pass on Ayala.

    And I personally feel Cruz signs with the Mets, no ands, ifs, or buts. i can FEEEL it.

  45. Alright, I can see the point but depends on how much he’s looking for. The risk is that he sucks and blows games, whether its the 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th.

    Jeeze, no one ever agrees with me on anything! :-( not even on Luis Ayala…

  46. Meant the Ayala comment to Roy. I don’t want Ayala as a closer, but a situational guy. He was hit, but he did have some positive moments for the Mets.-JD

  47. ed(54): I’m not saying you didn’t pick Lohse early. And you deserve a lot of credit for doing it. But very few teams, including the Phils (who knew him well) felt the same.

    But a year ago today the Mets had Maine, Perez, Pedro and Duque under contract, with Santana the #1 target and Pelfrey (and Humber) “on deck”.
    No way did that call for giving a guy with Lohse’s #s a 4-year, $41 mil deal.

  48. Steiny (61): I know the Mets will make a run at keeping him, but I don’t know if they’ll be able to do it. I’d like to keep Perez because he’s 27. Yes, he drives me crazy, but he can thrown the hell out of the ball and he’s worth trying to fix. A 27-year-old lefty who has won will get his money.-JD

  49. Bill (65): Let’s look at what the Mets had last winter before signing Santana:

    1. Pedro’s age and injury background.
    2. Duque’s age and injury background.
    3. Maine and Perez won 15 games, but was that a fluke?

    They had their issues.-JD

  50. Bill (65): When you look at what faced the Mets pre-Santana, I wouldn’t have turned down Lohse. But, to be honest, I would have balked on four years.-JD

  51. the Mets need two starters this year but with the way their posturing I get the feeling were once again going to get one starter and patch work… We shouldnt spend like the yanks but we are in NY and shouldnt be as fugile

  52. Ayala was 9-11 in saves he had three bad outings in 19 ( 2- three runs, 1- two runs and 4 – 1 run outings) with 12 scoreless outings…. he walked two batters in all… I’d bring him back in the pen no problem just not as the closer

  53. Nothing like a nice Baseball chat right before one of the biggest days in recent American history!!!

  54. What do you think Huston Street would cost in a trade? He’s not perfect, but I feel like his star has dimmed quite a bit and Beane would be selling a little low there. Plus, he’s young. Do the A’s still like Heilman?

  55. ed (69): I’m seeing it pretty much the same way. I really doubt they’ll fill all their holes. That’s two starters, a closer and another reliever or two.-JD

  56. I’ve heard a few times that the new Yankee stadium will bring $200M+ in additional revenue annually to the Yankees. How much additional revenue annually will Citi Field provide the Mets? Overall I’m wondering why the Mets plan to keep the payroll where it was last year. It seems they will have the resources to raise it if they want to. Aren’t they going to be more or less exempt from revenue sharing since they can deduct new stadium costs from any revenue sharing?

  57. j_k (72): Heilman’s stock has fallen. News of his knee problem hasn’t helped. I’ve said the Mets should jump at a deal with him, but will they be giving him away? I don’t that to happen. And, I know the Mets aren’t going to give him a shot at starting.-JD

  58. Not for nothing, but the people complaining about the payroll potentially not going up from $143Mil should think about the Rays, Marlins et al who have done surprisingly well with smaller payrolls. Do we need to go to 150+mil a year to be any more successful? Wasn’t that part of our problem? Expensive, underachieving, injured stars?

  59. Ashleydoodle (75): I don’t know what the Mets’ payroll will be in 2009, but there probably won’t be a substantial jump. … The Mets will get $20 million from the naming rights. … There will be additional revenues from in stadium ads and ticket sales. … I’d be guessing how much more revenue they’ll get from being away from Shea.-JD

  60. Yes we do the Rays and Marlins have spent years building there farm system ours was propbably the worst in the league in 2004 along with a last place team… either you go long term and wait til 2012 for the farm to develope into a contender or you spend

  61. JD- it seems Omar has been gun shy about trades the last year….why…

    1) he over values the players he picked and used bowden/phillips picks like chips

    2) he fleeced teams so well ( Maine – Perez) they wont trade with him

    3) he’s gun shy after bad trades like Burgos, Vargas, Adkins…

    4) up until now he didnt believ he actually needed to make trades, over believed in his roster and only talked trades for perception

  62. ed (81): He’s had a few that didn’t pan out, but others that did. The Mets did trade a good part of their prospects for Santana. There’s not a lot of major league ready prospects they have waiting in the wings.-JD

  63. John (67&68):Yes, that’s what they had, plus Pelfrey and Humber. And they were going after Santana. There was no way to know that Duque would go down for the season, or that Pedro would be out again, though admittedly they were risks.

    But there was no way they should’ve been looking for a 4 (or even 3) year deal for a guy with Lohse’s #s during the Winter. Hell, Silva had much better #s with the same team, and he turned to crap this year.

  64. bill (83): While you can’t forecast injuries, you had to expect the worst with Martinez and Hernandez. … I wouldn’t have balked at giving out a three-year deal because you still to think ahead to this year and next.-JD

  65. bill (84): The only thing I’ve heard is Milwaukee plans to go after Sabathia, but that had already been made public.-JD

  66. John (83): All true. But with Pedro, Duque, Maine and Perez under contract, if you sign Lohse to that contract there’s no way you add Santana.

    Santana or Lohse? No contest.

  67. Bill I totally disagreed it was a given that they would need another starter, he rolled the dice in a poor situation – Hernnadez and martinez havent put in full seasons in years

  68. ed (88): You had to figure they wouldn’t stay healthy. Why would you presume that?-JD

  69. ed(88): If they did need another starter, they would’ve given Pelfrey and Humber looks for #5. Are you really saying that you’d sign Lohse over getting Santana? Or that it would’ve made sense to get both of them?

  70. Bill = I’m saying Santana, Maine, Perez were the only known quantities…

    Humber was gone…

    Pelfry was coming off an 0-7 season

    and pedro -elduque were injury risks

    My rotation would have been

    Santana, Maine, Perez, Pedro, lohse with El Duque as the longman and Pelfrey in aaa as it was with Lohse Pelfrey would have never even made it to AAA

  71. He was 9-11 in his save chances but we all saw this games. They were of the hold you’re breathe-let me give up 2 runs with a 3 run lead, variety.

    77: The reasons their payrolls aren’t that high is because they can’t, so they won’t. The Mets can and should.

    BTW, I took a peak at the Yankee Stadium luxory boxes/suites. My god. Beauty.

  72. El Duque and Pedro were injuried too often Pelfrey would have ended up in the rotation and instead of Figgy, Knight, Vargas making starts they would have had a consistnet starter like Lohse there while Pelfrey bloomed into what he ended up being

  73. Benny – Im benny honest I never felt that way about Ayala i never thought he was a closer but I thought he was doing a solid job getting thrown into the feying pan the way he did

  74. Benny check the logs he allowed 3 runs twice, 2 runs once and 1 run 4 times with 12 scoreless outings – it must have just felt like more to you….

  75. Ayala appeared in 19 games in which he saved 9 of 11 chances. His ERA was an awful 5.50 but that ballooned due to three very bad outings; in his 19 games as a Met he allowed three runs on two occasions, two runs once, a single run in four and held the opposition scoreless in 12 appearances. In all he had allowed 2 walks and three home runs while striking out 14. He had a rubber arm, with solid control and is just hitting the 1 1/2 yrs. mark from with TJ surgery, I think we could do a lot worse…..

  76. I admit I’m jealous of this mentality, what would jeff do if oamr said this lol

    The Yankees are out to acquire two starters. “We won’t be one and done,” Cashman said. The plan is to have a rotation of New Guy 1, New Guy 2, Wang, Chamberlain and then Pettitte/Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves/assorted bums

  77. ed, maybe you’re right. I might be a little harsh on Ayala, considering the circumstances. Maybe him and Dirty Sanchez can take that year of recovery and just improve on in 2009.

  78. ed(92): Let me get this straight—you’d have paid Duque $6.5 mil to play arguably the least necessary position on the staff, even after he repeatedly has said he was not a reliever. And knowing that he’s ill-suited for the pen because he takes forever to warm up.

    And you’d do this to replace Pelfrey with Lohse, adding another $10 mil to the pitching payroll.

    And then add Santana’s $$$$$.

    WOW!

    You didn’t by any chance work for Bear, Stearns, did you?

  79. btw
    Did anyone see some of crazy the FA rankings.
    Darren Oliver is a Type A
    LoDuca,Alou and Ayala are all Type B

    Juan Cruz is a Type A. This might keep him off the Mets shopping list.

  80. ed (98/99): I thought Ayala pitched well enough to be brought back. … The key to the Yankees’ mentality is they aren’t afraid to spend on a question mark. If they make a mistake, well, it’s part of the game. … I think Omar might be a little more conservative when he thinks about the contracts given Duque, Castillo and Mota.-JD

  81. Guys … I think that’s it for me tonight. I will talk with you tomorrow. Thanks for your participation tonight.-JD

  82. Bill – To start the year Pelfrey’s was struggling with his secondary pitches and everybody was saying he was rushed and needed more time to develope in AAA couple that with the injury risk of eldque and pedro and yes it made sense to bring in another starter… As it was if Lohse was with the team pelf still wouldnt have missed a game….

  83. just looked it up Lohse didnt sign until 3/14/08 by then they already knew El Duque was heading to the DL and Lohse was a one year 4.25mil deal

  84. In that case, he was worth a shot. But after the Phillies gave up on him, he wasn’t high on anyone’s list.

  85. ah, my bad. Just saw you left. I’ll ask it another time. Good luck in your venture on a new job, hope you can stick with the Mets! Love this site as well.

  86. According to Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune, the Mets are interested in White Sox pitcher Javier Vazquez. Van Dyck implies that the Sox could move top prospect Aaron Poreda into the rotation to replace him.

    Vazquez has a connection to Omar Minaya, who traded him to the Yankees in December of 2003 as the Expos’ GM. Vazquez is owed $23MM for 2009-10. He’d give the Mets a pretty deep rotation. Van Dyck doesn’t believe it’d take much if the Mets paid all of his salary. Aaron Heilman could be a start.

  87. (111) Only way(s) I attempt to get Vazquez is if the price is EXTREMELY low or the Mets are unable to snag at least one decent pitchers (Lowe, Perez, etc) in the FA market.

    No need to give up prospects for a guy whose equal (or better) can be had for cash.

  88. Sorry guys but did I miss the part where Javier Vazquez is a bad pitcher?
    ONLY if it’s at a low rate?
    ONLY if he comes with Castillo leaving?
    Huh?

    Javier Vazquez is very good. 200 innings for 4 years in a row and what should have been 9 years ina row because of his 198 innings in 2004. That IS awesome. Decent HR rates. Great strikeout numbers. Keeps the walks down. All this while pitching in the A.L. in hitters environments of the Yankees and the White Sox which have incredibly bad, BAD defenses.

    He’s exactly what we need. WIthout the excessive financial and yearly committment.

  89. (115) How many more prospects do you want to trade away for 30+ year old players? Vazquez is a fine pitcher…but if you read my last statement, I think I made it fairly clear why I wouldn’t do it.

    There are guys on the market who are equal to or better than can be had for cash only.

  90. And to further my point and to disagree with your “excessive financial” point, Vazquez is due $23mm over the next two years.

    Unless it’s Oliver Perez, I can safely say that the Mets will NOT be signing any SP this offseason to anything more than a 3-year deal, so one more year, even if it’s a few million more/year, is not a big deal.

  91. Assuming the Mets trade for for Vazquez and take on all or most his salary, I don’t think its going to take much to tickle Ken Williams’ fancy.
    He wants flexibility.
    Umm, Burnett, Lowe, Sabathia, Oliver Perez, Sheets, are ALL getting 4 years or more.

  92. (118) Then the Mets better hope they can re-sign Oliver Perez. I’ll give you Lowe for the 4-year deal cuz NY really seems to be targeting him. I wouldn’t be upset if they got him for 4 years, but it’s not the safest of moves long-term when a guy is going to be 37.

    As for the others, Sheets and Burnett are hurt all the time so no way would I give either a 4-year deal. Maybe they finally stay healthy but that’s a HUGE risk. Let someone else get suckered into that.

    Sabathia is not coming here.

  93. True, maybe not Shets but Oliver, Sabathia, and Burnett are surely going to get 4+ years.
    OK and now eliminate Sabathia and you’re left with Oliver, Burnett, and Lowe.
    Burnett is hurt all the time so scratch him off.
    Now you are left with Oliver and Lowe. Both of these guys are getting 4+ years and I’d have no problem going after Vazquez even though they “only” require cash…